Short-run Birth and Death of U.S. Manufacturing Firms: 2000 - 2005

Attracting manufacturing investment remains a viable regional development policy. Previous research in the location literature has informed policymakers which factors are most important for attracting new firm investment. Far less is known about the dynamics of firm death and the possible interaction with firm birth. A conceptual model of county-level investment in the U.S. manufacturing sector is developed from location theory and subsequent literature. Specifically, we test the relative importance of location factors influencing firm investment, and if these factors influence firm birth and death differently. Local factors include labor quality, availability, and cost, market conditions, agglomeration due to localization and urbanization economies, infrastructure, and fiscal policy. This study covers the time period 2000 to 2004 for U.S. counties in the lower 48 states. Firm data are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Dynamic Firm Data Series, which links establishments across space and time. Regional adjustment models are used to show how ceteris paribus changes in location factors affect the birth and death rates in a county.location factors, manufacturing, creative destruction, Community/Rural/Urban Development, L60, R11, R12,

A TWO-STEP ESTIMATOR FOR A SPATIAL LAG MODEL OF COUNTS: THEORY, SMALL SAMPLE PERFORMANCE AND AN APPLICATION

Several spatial econometric approaches are available to model spatially correlated disturbances in count models, but there are at present no structurally consistent count models incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation. A two-step, limited information maximum likelihood estimator is proposed to fill this gap. The estimator is developed assuming a Poisson distribution, but can be extended to other count distributions. The small sample properties of the estimator are evaluated with Monte Carlo experiments. Simulation results suggest that the spatial lag count estimator achieves gains in terms of bias over the aspatial version as spatial lag autocorrelation and sample size increase. An empirical example deals with the location choice of single-unit start-up firms in the manufacturing industry in the US between 2000 and 2004. The empirical results suggest that in the dynamic process of firm formation, counties dominated by firms exhibiting (internal) increasing returns to scale are at a relative disadvantage even if localization economies are presentcount model, location choice, manufacturing, Poisson, spatial econometrics

Manufacturing Transition in Local Economies: A Regional Adjustment Model

This paper addresses changes in capital formation by testing the importance of location factors with respect to the rate of establishment births and deaths in U.S. manufacturing, 2000–2004. A theoretical concept called “localized creative destruction” is tested as a mechanism to explain the dynamics impacting the spatial distribution of manufacturing establishment birth and death rates. While no support of this process was found, results identify a convergence process occurring where counties with high initial birth/death rates have smaller changes in firm birth and death rates. The interpretation is that counties become more equally competitive in terms of firm formation dynamics in lieu of successful counties increasing their lead in the short run. This is potentially relevant to policymakers and economic development practitioners who are concerned with business retention and the impact of new manufacturing establishments on their existing base.location determinants, manufacturing, adjustment models, Community/Rural/Urban Development, L60, R11, R12,

Firm Birth and Death in U.S. Manufacturing: A Regional Adjustment Model

Attracting manufacturing investment is a frequently used rural development policy. Previous research in the location literature has informed policymakers which factors are most important for attracting new firm investment. Far less is known about the interaction of birth and death of establishments. A conceptual model of county-level investment in the U.S. manufacturing sector is developed from location theory and subsequent literature. Specifically, we test the relative importance of location factors influencing firm investment, and if these factors influence firm birth and death differently. Local factors include agglomeration due to localization, urbanization, and internal economies, market structure, labor quality, availability, and cost, market conditions, , infrastructure, and fiscal policy. This study covers the time period 2000 to 2004 for U.S. counties in the lower 48 states. Counts of establishments are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Dynamic Firm Data Series, which links establishments across space and time. Negative binomial models containing spatially lagged endogenous variables are estimated in a regional adjustment framework to show how ceteris paribus changes in location factors affect the conditional number of establishment births and deaths in a county.location determinants, manufacturing, count models, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, L60, R11, R12,

The Quenching of the Ultra-faint Dwarf Galaxies in the Reionization Era

We present new constraints on the star formation histories of six ultra-faint dwarf galaxies: Bootes I, Canes Venatici II, Coma Berenices, Hercules, Leo IV, and Ursa Major I. Our analysis employs a combination of high-precision photometry obtained with the Advanced Camera for Surveys on the Hubble Space Telescope, medium-resolution spectroscopy obtained with the DEep Imaging Multi-Object Spectrograph on the W. M. Keck Observatory, and updated Victoria-Regina isochrones tailored to the abundance patterns appropriate for these galaxies. The data for five of these Milky Way satellites are best fit by a star formation history where at least 75% of the stars formed by z ~ 10 (13.3 Gyr ago). All of the galaxies are consistent with 80% of the stars forming by z ~ 6 (12.8 Gyr ago) and 100% of the stars forming by z ~ 3 (11.6 Gyr ago). The similarly ancient populations of these galaxies support the hypothesis that star formation in the smallest dark-matter sub-halos was suppressed by a global outside influence, such as the reionization of the universe

The Primeval Populations of the Ultra-Faint Dwarf Galaxies

We present new constraints on the star formation histories of the ultra-faint dwarf (UFD) galaxies, using deep photometry obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). A galaxy class recently discovered in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, the UFDs appear to be an extension of the classical dwarf spheroidals to low luminosities, offering a new front in efforts to understand the missing satellite problem. They are the least luminous, most dark-matter dominated, and least chemically-evolved galaxies known. Our HST survey of six UFDs seeks to determine if these galaxies are true fossils from the early universe. We present here the preliminary analysis of three UFD galaxies: Hercules, Leo IV, and Ursa Major I. Classical dwarf spheroidals of the Local Group exhibit extended star formation histories, but these three Milky Way satellites are at least as old as the ancient globular cluster M92, with no evidence for intermediate-age populations. Their ages also appear to be synchronized to within ~1 Gyr of each other, as might be expected if their star formation was truncated by a global event, such as reionization.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. Latex, 5 pages, 2 color figures, 1 tabl