A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record

For the UK's longest and most complete sea level record (Newlyn), we assess extreme high waters and their temporal clustering; prompted by the 2013/2014 winter of storms and flooding. These are set into context against this almost 100-year record. We define annual periods for which storm activity and high sea levels can be compared on a year-by-year basis. Amongst the storms and high tides which affected Newlyn, the recent winter produced the largest recorded high water level (3 February 2014) and five other high water events above a 1 in 1-year return period. The large magnitude of tide and mean sea level, and the close inter-event spacings (of large return period high waters), suggests that the 2013/2014 extreme high water level "season" can be considered the most extreme on record. However, storm and sea level events may be classified in different ways. For example, in the context of sea level rise (which we calculate linearly as 1.81 ± 0.1 mm yr?1 from records between 1915 to 2014), a lower probability combination of surge and tide occurred on 29 January 1948, whilst the 1995/1996 storm surge season saw the most high waters of ? the 1 in 1-year return period. We provide a basic categorisation of the four types of extreme high water level cluster, ranging from consecutive tidal cycles to multiple years. The assessment is extended to other UK sites (with shorter sea level records and different tide-surge characteristics), which suggests 2013/2014 was particularly unusual. Further work will assess clustering mechanisms and flood system "memory"

Selective Laser Sintering of Polycarbonate at Varying Powers, Scan Speeds and Scan Spacings

A benchmark study (1) has shown selective laser sintering to be the equal of or to have accuracy advantages over other processes for creating parts of size over 10 mm. Experience is needed to achieve best accuracies, as with other processes. This paper is (for us) a first step in understanding the relation between sintering parameters, part size and acuracy. Work at the University of Texas at Austin (2-4) has established that the sintering of polycarbonate can be understood in terms of a rate model driven by viscous and surface tension effects. Material properties are such that a sharp boundary exists between sintered and unsintered material. When full density is not achieved in a part, density within a single layer varies from fully sintered to totally unsintered; measured part density is thus a mean of widely varying values. Published work (3-4) uses a onedimensional non-steady state heat flow model to calculate the temperature profile and densification beneath the surface and concentrates on the effects on this of material properties varying with temperature and during sintering. In this paper, these variations are ignored but a three dimensional non-steady heat flow is used to enable edge effects to be estimated. Density gradients at edges are assumed to be responsible for variations of accuracy with sintering parameters, part size, part shape and orientation.Mechanical Engineerin

The impact of tidal lagoons on future flood risk on the North Wirral and Conwy coastline, UK

This report considers the viability of tidal lagoons in the North Wirral and Conwy coastlines, to mitigate future flood risk and reduce the cost of damage in these areas. The report is aims to provide information on the feasibility and benefits of tidal lagoons as mitigation and adaptation strategies to future sea-level rise, as part of the RISES-AM project. Sea-level has been rising since instrumental records began in the 1700s, and has been rising at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 mm / yr-1 since 1990 (Hay et al., 2015). Low probability, plausible high-end sea-level rise scenarios, where global average warming exceeds 2oC in respect to the pre-industrial level, estimate up to 0.98 m sea-level rise (SLR) by 2100 (Church et al., 2013). There is a move away from hard defences in favour of strategies which can mitigate flood risk benefit and allow coastal communities to adapt to and benefit from high-end SLR scenarios (Linham and Nicholls, 2010). Tidal lagoons could be one such innovative option. The report aims to assess the impact of the construction of tidal lagoons on flood risk on the North Wirral and Conwy coastline, under future high-end sea-level rise scenarios. Computer simulations of extreme flood events, using a 2D hydrodynamic model called LISFLOOD, will estimate changes in the extent and depth of flooding following the construction of a lagoon under both present day and future extreme climate conditions. The results of LISFLOOD suggest that: • Colwyn Bay and the North Wirral coastline are not areas at increased flood risk under baseline future high-end SLR, due to steep topography and existing defences. • Infrastructure at Stanlow oil refinery and Connah’s Quay in the North Wirral domain and residential areas in the Colwyn Bay domain at Llandudno, Rhyl and Prestatyn experience increased flood risk under RCP 4.5 (0.72 m SLR) and RCP 8.5 (0.98 m SLR) with no tidal lagoon. This is due to low-lying topography. • The presence of a tidal lagoon on the North Wirral provides flood risk benefit to infrastructure at Stanlow and Connah’s Quay as the magnitude of tidal currents is limited through the Dee and Mersey Estuary. However the size of the lagoon and the bathymetry of Liverpool Bay may mean the lagoon in this study may not be financially feasible. • The construction of a tidal lagoon at Colwyn Bay increases extent and depth of inundation at Llandudno, Rhyl and Prestatyn under all sea-level rise scenarios. Increased flood risk in these areas following the construction of a tidal lagoon is reason enough not to build a lagoon in this location. Tidal lagoons have the potential to offer flood risk benefit and become part of integrated strategies to minimise flood risk in coastal areas. The benefits of tidal lagoons are dependent on their shape, size and location, and feasibility studies should consider impacts in the near- and far-field

Investigation of the Liverpool Bay mixing front using POLCOMS

Liverpool Bay, northwest UK, is a region of freshwater influence and hypertidal conditions. The river inflow from the 3 large estuary systems (Dee, Mersey and Ribble) forms a coastal front that moves < 10 km in response to semi-diurnal tidal straining and < 35 km due to the spring-neap cycle. The time variability of the density gradients in this coastal region are mainly controlled by salinity. Coastal observations are used in this study to improve the numerical simulation of the exchange process occurring at this front through improved spatial structure and temporal variability. A decade of Conductivity Temperature Depth (CTD) sensor observations were collected during cruises across a nearshore grid of monitoring stations. These data are used in addition to fixed mooring data that are near-continuous in time to validate numerical simulations using the 1-way nested Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) at ~1.8km and 180m horizontal resolution. A downscaled simulation is used to investigate the influence of model resolution, inclusion of wetting and drying, diffusivity, turbulence advection and the influence of model boundary and initial conditions for select cruise periods in 2008. This year is chosen as a typical year with periods of calm and stormy conditions with variable river influence to investigate the seasonal frontal structure. A method to validate the spatial structure of the front is presented demonstrating the importance of a fine-resolution grid and improved physics to capture the details