Disease progression timeline estimation for Alzheimer's disease using discriminative event based modeling

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is characterized by a cascade of biomarkers becoming abnormal, the pathophysiology of which is very complex and largely unknown. Event-based modeling (EBM) is a data-driven technique to estimate the sequence in which biomarkers for a disease become abnormal based on cross-sectional data. It can help in understanding the dynamics of disease progression and facilitate early diagnosis and prognosis by staging patients. In this work we propose a novel discriminative approach to EBM, which is shown to be more accurate than existing state-of-the-art EBM methods. The method first estimates for each subject an approximate ordering of events. Subsequently, the central ordering over all subjects is estimated by fitting a generalized Mallows model to these approximate subject-specific orderings based on a novel probabilistic Kendall's Tau distance. We also introduce the concept of relative distance between events which helps in creating a disease progression timeline. Subsequently, we propose a method to stage subjects by placing them on the estimated disease progression timeline. We evaluated the proposed method on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data and compared the results with existing state-of-the-art EBM methods. We also performed extensive experiments on synthetic data simulating the progression of Alzheimer's disease. The event orderings obtained on ADNI data seem plausible and are in agreement with the current understanding of progression of AD. The proposed patient staging algorithm performed consistently better than that of state-of-the-art EBM methods. Event orderings obtained in simulation experiments were more accurate than those of other EBM methods and the estimated disease progression timeline was observed to correlate with the timeline of actual disease progression. The results of these experiments are encouraging and suggest that discriminative EBM is a promising approach to disease progression modeling.ImPhys/Quantitative Imagin

Cerebral blood flow and cognitive functioning in patients with disorders along the heart–brain axis: Cerebral blood flow and the heart–brain axis

Introduction: We examined the role of hemodynamic dysfunction in cognition by relating cerebral blood flow (CBF), measured with arterial spin labeling (ASL), to cognitive functioning, in patients with heart failure (HF), carotid occlusive disease (COD), and patients with cognitive complaints and vascular brain injury on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI; ie, possible vascular cognitive impairment [VCI]). Methods: We included 439 participants (124 HF; 75 COD; 127 possible VCI; 113 reference participants) from the Dutch multi-center Heart–Brain Study. We used pseudo-continuous ASL to estimate whole-brain and regional partial volume-corrected CBF. Neuropsychological tests covered global cognition and four cognitive domains. Results: CBF values were lowest in COD, followed by VCI and HF, compared to reference participants. This did not explain cognitive impairment, as we did not find an association between CBF and cognitive functioning. Discussion: We found that reduced CBF is not the major explanatory factor underlying cognitive impairment in patients with hemodynamic dysfunction along the heart–brain axis.ImPhys/Medical ImagingImPhys/Computational Imagin

Progression along data-driven disease timelines is predictive of Alzheimer's disease in a population-based cohort

Data-driven disease progression models have provided important insight into the timeline of brain changes in AD phenotypes. However, their utility in predicting the progression of pre-symptomatic AD in a population-based setting has not yet been investigated. In this study, we investigated if the disease timelines constructed in a case-controlled setting, with subjects stratified according to APOE status, are generalizable to a population-based cohort, and if progression along these disease timelines is predictive of AD. Seven volumetric biomarkers derived from structural MRI were considered. We estimated APOE-specific disease timelines of changes in these biomarkers using a recently proposed method called co-initialized discriminative event-based modeling (co-init DEBM). This method can also estimate a disease stage for new subjects by calculating their position along the disease timelines. The model was trained and cross-validated on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset, and tested on the population-based Rotterdam Study (RS) cohort. We compared the diagnostic and prognostic value of the disease stage in the two cohorts. Furthermore, we investigated if the rate of change of disease stage in RS participants with longitudinal MRI data was predictive of AD. In ADNI, the estimated disease timeslines for ϵ4 non-carriers and carriers were found to be significantly different from one another (p<0.001). The estimate disease stage along the respective timelines distinguished AD subjects from controls with an AUC of 0.83 in both APOE ϵ4 non-carriers and carriers. In the RS cohort, we obtained an AUC of 0.83 and 0.85 in ϵ4 non-carriers and carriers, respectively. Progression along the disease timelines as estimated by the rate of change of disease stage showed a significant difference (p<0.005) for subjects with pre-symptomatic AD as compared to the general aging population in RS. It distinguished pre-symptomatic AD subjects with an AUC of 0.81 in APOE ϵ4 non-carriers and 0.88 in carriers, which was better than any individual volumetric biomarker, or its rate of change, could achieve. Our results suggest that co-init DEBM trained on case-controlled data is generalizable to a population-based cohort setting and that progression along the disease timelines is predictive of the development of AD in the general population. We expect that this approach can help to identify at-risk individuals from the general population for targeted clinical trials as well as to provide biomarker based objective assessment in such trials.ImPhys/Computational ImagingImPhys/Medical ImagingBiomechanical Engineerin

Longitudinal diffusion MRI analysis using Segis-Net: A single-step deep-learning framework for simultaneous segmentation and registration

This work presents a single-step deep-learning framework for longitudinal image analysis, coined Segis-Net. To optimally exploit information available in longitudinal data, this method concurrently learns a multi-class segmentation and nonlinear registration. Segmentation and registration are modeled using a convolutional neural network and optimized simultaneously for their mutual benefit. An objective function that optimizes spatial correspondence for the segmented structures across time-points is proposed. We applied Segis-Net to the analysis of white matter tracts from N=8045 longitudinal brain MRI datasets of 3249 elderly individuals. Segis-Net approach showed a significant increase in registration accuracy, spatio-temporal segmentation consistency, and reproducibility compared with two multistage pipelines. This also led to a significant reduction in the sample-size that would be required to achieve the same statistical power in analyzing tract-specific measures. Thus, we expect that Segis-Net can serve as a new reliable tool to support longitudinal imaging studies to investigate macro- and microstructural brain changes over time.ImPhys/Medical ImagingImPhys/Computational ImagingImPhys/Imaging Physic

Computer-Aided Diagnosis and Prediction in Brain Disorders

Computer-aided methods have shown added value for diagnosing and predicting brain disorders and can thus support decision making in clinical care and treatment planning. This chapter will provide insight into the type of methods, their working, their input data –such as cognitive tests, imaging, and genetic data– and the types of output they provide. We will focus on specific use cases for diagnosis, i.e., estimating the current “condition” of the patient, such as early detection and diagnosis of dementia, differential diagnosis of brain tumors, and decision making in stroke. Regarding prediction, i.e., estimation of the future “condition” of the patient, we will zoom in on use cases such as predicting the disease course in multiple sclerosis and predicting patient outcomes after treatment in brain cancer. Furthermore, based on these use cases, we will assess the current state-of-the-art methodology and highlight current efforts on benchmarking of these methods and the importance of open science therein. Finally, we assess the current clinical impact of computer-aided methods and discuss the required next steps to increase clinical impact.ImPhys/Vos groupImPhys/Computational Imagin

Analyzing the effect of APOE on Alzheimer's disease progression using an event-based model for stratified populations

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia and is phenotypically heterogeneous. APOE is a triallelic gene which correlates with phenotypic heterogeneity in AD. In this work, we determined the effect of APOE alleles on the disease progression timeline of AD using a discriminative event-based model (DEBM). Since DEBM is a data-driven model, stratification into smaller disease subgroups would lead to more inaccurate models as compared to fitting the model on the entire dataset. Hence our secondary aim is to propose and evaluate novel approaches in which we split the different steps of DEBM into group-aspecific and group-specific parts, where the entire dataset is used to train the group-aspecific parts and only the data from a specific group is used to train the group-specific parts of the DEBM. We performed simulation experiments to benchmark the accuracy of the proposed approaches and to select the optimal approach. Subsequently, the chosen approach was applied to the baseline data of 417 cognitively normal, 235 mild cognitively impaired who convert to AD within 3 years, and 342 AD patients from the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset to gain new insights into the effect of APOE carriership on the disease progression timeline of AD. In the ε4 carrier group, the model predicted with high confidence that CSF Amyloidβ42 and the cognitive score of Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS) are early biomarkers. Hippocampus was the earliest volumetric biomarker to become abnormal, closely followed by the CSF Phosphorylated Tau181 (PTAU) biomarker. In the homozygous ε3 carrier group, the model predicted a similar ordering among CSF biomarkers. However, the volume of the fusiform gyrus was identified as one of the earliest volumetric biomarker. While the findings in the ε4 carrier and the homozygous ε3 carrier groups fit the current understanding of progression of AD, the finding in the ε2 carrier group did not. The model predicted, with relatively low confidence, CSF Neurogranin as one of the earliest biomarkers along with cognitive score of Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Amyloid β42 was found to become abnormal after PTAU. The presented models could aid understanding of the disease, and in selecting homogeneous group of presymptomatic subjects at-risk of developing symptoms for clinical trials.ImPhys/Medical ImagingImPhys/Computational Imagin

Cross-cohort generalizability of deep and conventional machine learning for MRI-based diagnosis and prediction of Alzheimer's disease

This work validates the generalizability of MRI-based classification of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and controls (CN) to an external data set and to the task of prediction of conversion to AD in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We used a conventional support vector machine (SVM) and a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) approach based on structural MRI scans that underwent either minimal pre-processing or more extensive pre-processing into modulated gray matter (GM) maps. Classifiers were optimized and evaluated using cross-validation in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI; 334 AD, 520 CN). Trained classifiers were subsequently applied to predict conversion to AD in ADNI MCI patients (231 converters, 628 non-converters) and in the independent Health-RI Parelsnoer Neurodegenerative Diseases Biobank data set. From this multi-center study representing a tertiary memory clinic population, we included 199 AD patients, 139 participants with subjective cognitive decline, 48 MCI patients converting to dementia, and 91 MCI patients who did not convert to dementia. AD-CN classification based on modulated GM maps resulted in a similar area-under-the-curve (AUC) for SVM (0.940; 95%CI: 0.924–0.955) and CNN (0.933; 95%CI: 0.918–0.948). Application to conversion prediction in MCI yielded significantly higher performance for SVM (AUC = 0.756; 95%CI: 0.720-0.788) than for CNN (AUC = 0.742; 95%CI: 0.709-0.776) (p<0.01 for McNemar's test). In external validation, performance was slightly decreased. For AD-CN, it again gave similar AUCs for SVM (0.896; 95%CI: 0.855–0.932) and CNN (0.876; 95%CI: 0.836–0.913). For prediction in MCI, performances decreased for both SVM (AUC = 0.665; 95%CI: 0.576-0.760) and CNN (AUC = 0.702; 95%CI: 0.624-0.786). Both with SVM and CNN, classification based on modulated GM maps significantly outperformed classification based on minimally processed images (p=0.01). Deep and conventional classifiers performed equally well for AD classification and their performance decreased only slightly when applied to the external cohort. We expect that this work on external validation contributes towards translation of machine learning to clinical practice.ImPhys/Medical ImagingImPhys/Computational ImagingImPhys/Imaging Physic