Techno-economic demand projections and scenarios for the Bolivian energy system

Increasing energy access in emerging economies has played an important role to maintain or achieve desirable social and economic development targets. As a consequence, the growing energy requirements need policy instruments to ensure energy supply for future generations. The literature reports many studies with different approaches to model and test policy measures in the energy sector, however few energy-related studies for Bolivia are available. This paper addresses this knowledge gap, representing the first national level energy demand model and projections for Bolivia. The model use demographic, economic, technology and policy trends with a pragmatic model structure that combines bottom-up and top-down modelling. The scenario analysis has a particular focus on alternatives for energy savings, energy mix diversification and air quality. Three scenarios were analysed: Energy Savings, Fuel Substitution and the aggregate effects in a Combined scenario. The reference scenario results show the overall energy consumption grows 134% in 2035 compared to 2012 with an annual average growth of 3.8%. The final energy demand in the energy savings scenario is 8.5% lower than the Reference scenario, 1.5% lower in the fuel substitution scenario and 9.4% lower in the combined Scenario. The aggregate impact of both energy savings and fuel substitution measures leads to potential avoided emissions of 25.84 million Tons of CO2 equivalent in the model horizon 2012-2035

A Discrete Version of the Inverse Scattering Problem and the J-matrix Method

The problem of the Hamiltonian matrix in the oscillator and Laguerre basis construction from the S-matrix is treated in the context of the algebraic analogue of the Marchenko method.Comment: 11 pages. The Laguerre basis case is adde

Where do graduates Develop their Enterprise Skills? The Value of the Contribution of Higher Education Institutions’ Context

This study investigates the value of the contribution of HEIs’ context in developing graduates enterprise skills. HEIs are under pressure to develop more enterprising graduates, particularly with the increasing numbers of graduates seeking employment and the growing dissatisfaction of employers. This study explores where graduates develop enterprise skills through investigating the impact of HE and employment contexts on their development. The paper draws on a qualitative study in the social constructionist paradigm within the pharmacy context, where interviews were conducted with pharmacy academics and employers. Results show that ability to demonstrate skills in one context does not necessarily mean ability to demonstrate them in another since the development and demonstration of enterprise skills is impacted by the contexts in which they are developed and demonstrated. The study adds value by highlighting the significant role of both HE and employment contexts in developing enterprise skills, while emphasising that these skills become more transferable through exposure to more contexts

Agent-based Social Psychology: from Neurocognitive Processes to Social Data

Moral Foundation Theory states that groups of different observers may rely on partially dissimilar sets of moral foundations, thereby reaching different moral valuations. The use of functional imaging techniques has revealed a spectrum of cognitive styles with respect to the differential handling of novel or corroborating information that is correlated to political affiliation. Here we characterize the collective behavior of an agent-based model whose inter individual interactions due to information exchange in the form of opinions are in qualitative agreement with experimental neuroscience data. The main conclusion derived connects the existence of diversity in the cognitive strategies and statistics of the sets of moral foundations and suggests that this connection arises from interactions between agents. Thus a simple interacting agent model, whose interactions are in accord with empirical data on conformity and learning processes, presents statistical signatures consistent with moral judgment patterns of conservatives and liberals as obtained by survey studies of social psychology.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, 2 C codes, to appear in Advances in Complex System

"Roll back the years": A study of grandparent special guardians' experiences and implications for social work policy and practice in England

Growing numbers of grandparent special guardians (GSGs) are assuming responsibility for increasing numbers of children in the care system in England. Special guardianship arrangements are increasingly used as a permanency option as they allow children to remain in their kinship networks, rather than in local authority care or be adopted; yet there is a scarcity of research on GSG carers’ experiences. This article reports a small qualitative research study where ten sets of grandparents were interviewed to explore their journey to becoming GSGs and to theorise their subsequent experiences. Two themes emerge. Firstly, experiences of the assessment process are elaborated, decisions often being made at a time of family crisis, impacting on GSGs: financial, employment, relational. Secondly, GSGs’ experiences of managing often-challenging relationships and contact arrangements between the grandchildren and the parents reveal three main relationship management approaches emerging: containing-flexible; containing-controlled and; uncontained/defeated approaches. Anthropological concepts of affinity help theorise the GSGs’ ambivalent responses to becoming carers in later life, enabling reconfigured kinship relationships in new family forms. Family policy and social work practice is critiqued as GSGs appear often left alone to ‘roll back the years’, to heal previous harms done to the grandchildren who end-up in their care

Machine-learning prediction of cancer survival: a retrospective study using electronic administrative records and a cancer registry

Objectives: Using the prediction of cancer outcome as a model, we have tested the hypothesis that through analysing routinely collected digital data contained in an electronic administrative record (EAR), using machine-learning techniques, we could enhance conventional methods in predicting clinical outcomes. Setting: A regional cancer centre in Australia. Participants: Disease-specific data from a purpose-built cancer registry (Evaluation of Cancer Outcomes (ECO)) from 869 patients were used to predict survival at 6, 12 and 24 months. The model was validated with data from a further 94 patients, and results compared to the assessment of five specialist oncologists. Machine-learning prediction using ECO data was compared with that using EAR and a model combining ECO and EAR data. Primary and secondary outcome measures: Survival prediction accuracy in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The ECO model yielded AUCs of 0.87 (95% CI 0.848 to 0.890) at 6 months, 0.796 (95% CI 0.774 to 0.823) at 12 months and 0.764 (95% CI 0.737 to 0.789) at 24 months. Each was slightly better than the performance of the clinician panel. The model performed consistently across a range of cancers, including rare cancers. Combining ECO and EAR data yielded better prediction than the ECO-based model (AUCs ranging from 0.757 to 0.997 for 6 months, AUCs from 0.689 to 0.988 for 12 months and AUCs from 0.713 to 0.973 for 24 months). The best prediction was for genitourinary, head and neck, lung, skin, and upper gastrointestinal tumours. Conclusions: Machine learning applied to information from a disease-specific (cancer) database and the EAR can be used to predict clinical outcomes. Importantly, the approach described made use of digital data that is already routinely collected but underexploited by clinical health systems

Making a home, finding a job: investigating early housing and employment outcomes for young people leaving care

This paper presents findings from a new study of outcomes for young people leaving care funded by the Department for Education and Skills. It reports findings for a sample of 106 young people in relation to progress made in housing and employment some 12-15 months after leaving care. The generally poor employment outcomes of care leavers are acknowledged, but ingredients that make for success are also highlighted, including the value of settled care and post-care careers, sound career planning and, significantly, the value of delaying young people's transitions from care. Early career paths also interconnect with how young people fare in housing, in developing life skills and with other problems in their lives after leaving care. Housing outcomes were more encouraging and predominantly shaped by events after leaving care, and faring well in housing was the factor most closely associated with positive mental well-being in young people. Some groups that are at risk of faring badly are identified, including young people with mental-health problems, young people with persistent offending or substance misuse problems and, in some respects, young disabled people. The implications of these findings for leaving care services are considered

Rimonabant improves cardiometabolic risk factors in overweight/obese patients irrespective of treatment with statins: Pooled data from the RIO program

peer reviewe

Participatory scenario development for environmental management:A methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands

A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change