Spatial hazard models: limitations and applications

The paper develops an important spatial extension of longitudinal models. Longitudinal models capture variations in the timing of events. Recently, they have also been applied to variations in the spacing of events, using distance as a mathematical equivalent of time. Spatial relationships are, however, characterized by two-dimensionality, and distance alone is therefore insufficient for the assessment of their variations. The methodological extension defines spacing and spatial relationships via two dimensions and develops the associated mathematical and statistical apparatus using joint probability density functions of movement along both axes. The proposed extension will be applied to an empirical example, using data on spatio-temporal fertility patterns in Italy over the last three decades.

THE EMERGENCE OF A KNOWLEDGE AGGLOMERATION: A SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL IN INDIANA

U.S. States and communities increasingly compete for intellectual power so as to thrive toward an economically vibrant setting that spurs the entrepreneurial spirit and attracts businesses and industries from around the world. As a recent report by the U.S. census reveals, 17 U.S. States have gained such intellectual power through the net inmigration of young, single and college educated persons. The State of Indiana is among the remaining thirty-three States that have a negative net balance, even ranking among the bottom ten in their ability to attract this highly valued population segment. In fact, for every young, single, college educated inmigrant, Indiana loses nearly two to other states. However, an analysis at the state-level hides important small-scale variations. This paper therefore investigates the processes leading to changes in the spatial distribution of knowledge workers across Indiana counties, with emphases on in-situ change, retention, intra- and interstate migration. The analysis shows that these demographic changes at the county level in fact reveal a less bleak picture than the state-wide aggregate figures suggest, and uncover remarkable peaks in the landscape of intellectual capital that can serve as a catalyst for attracting intellectual capital from outside the State.

Brain Drain in Rural America

The paper aims at understanding changes in the distribution and accumulation of intellectual capital by analyzing migrants' educational profiles across a sample of 303 U.S. counties. The results suggest that newcomers are better educated than the resident population, and the education gap is most pronounced for newcomers from other states. The results further suggest that the educational status of newcomers "in-migrants" is positively related to the educational status of the resident population "stayers", thus implying a further agglomeration of human capital across space. However, for interstate migrants the effect is context-dependent, playing a greater role in urban than in rural settings.Human Capital, Migration, Brain Drain, Community/Rural/Urban Development, J24, R23,

THE EFFECTS OF RURALITY AND INDUSTRIAL SPECIALIZATION ON INCOME GROWTH: U.S. COUNTIES 2000 TO 2003*

This paper— part of a comprehensive project on industry clusters and rural competitiveness— explores the role of industrial specialization and rurality on economic performance for counties in the continental United States. Regression models are estimated that evaluate the impact of industry cluster-specific employment shares on per capita income growth overall, as well as in a sequence of different contextual settings. Overall, the results suggest that economic disparities across U.S. counties will diminish. The results also suggest that economic specialization “per se” is not a guarantee for economic growth. Instead, economic growth very much depends on the type of specialization and the contextual setting, with distinct differences between, for example, the metropolitan sphere, the rural sphere, and the rural-metro interface.Manufactured Housing;Economic Growth, Industry Clusters, Rural America

Rent Shifts in American Rental Housing Markets, 2000-2009: Directional Heterogeneity in Distance Decay Patterns

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Strategic Interaction and Spatial Multiplier Effects in Local Growth Control Policies: The California Housing Market

Since the 1970s, growth controls spread across many metropolitan regions in the United States. Several studies address the effects of local growth controls on housing markets, particularly its price effect, which is induced by rising construction cost, constrained housing supply, improved amenities, and market reorientation of homebuilders. However, only few studies explicitly address inter-jurisdictional spatial spillovers and strategic interaction of policy-makers of different jurisdictions in the design of growth control policies. This study focuses on two housing market outcomes, supply of new housing and market orientation, and utilizes a spatial econometric framework to systematically investigate local and global spatial spillovers giving rise to spatial multiplier effects. Preliminary results suggest that market orientation of new home building is primarily influenced by population growth and building permit caps, with positive spillovers at the local level only. For the supply of new housing, however, the models seem to suggest positive global spillover effects. However, there is additional indication of a potential relevance of including spatial heterogeneity in the model specification. Specifically, a north-south disparity or a coastal-inland disparity may have non-negligible impacts with concurrent implications for policy-making.spatial spillovers, growth controls, housing supply, market orientation, Public Economics, C21, H23, H73, R31,

Aging and Feminization: Implications for Future Travel Demands of the Elderly

An increasing proportion of the oldest-old (85+) population, combined with a pronounced abundance of older women relative to older men, characterize the demographic development of industrialized countries. Both, aging and feminization, strongly influence the transportation demands of the future. As people age, their driving abilities diminish, leading to driving reduction and ultimately driving cessation. Moreover, the literature suggests that the driving adjustments operate differently for men and women. Especially, women are prone to cease driving at an earlier age than men, and thus are in need of travel modes other than driving at an earlier age. This paper therefore aims at estimating the demand for non-automobile based mobility of the elderly. Towards that end, it develops a multi-risk survival model that links the demographic shifts towards a growing elderly population and towards the feminization of the older population with driving cessations rates. The model is used to simulate the future demand for non-automobile based mobility of the elderly, as well as estimates of older men's and women's expected number of years without driving a car. Preliminary results for The Netherlands and the U.S. suggest that, while women's conditional life expectancies are substantially higher than those of men, there is barely any difference between men's and women's expected number of years without driving a car. Moreover, in the Netherlands, demand growth rates will exceed the growth rates of the elderly population over the next 15 years. In the U.S., in contrast, excessive demand growth rates will occur substantially later, when the huge baby boom has reached the oldest age cohorts. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies and planning strategies needed to respond to the mobility needs of the elderly following driving reduction and driving cessation.

AGE DIFFERENCES AND MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS ON FOOD STAMP PROGRAM PARTICIPATION

Low income populations are more severely affected by economic downturns than their high income counterparts because they are at high risk of unemployment and face reduced earnings in recessions. The use of food stamp benefits and other types of welfare are one mechanism that families can use to buffer the economic shock brought about by income losses due to unemployment during a recession. As a result, during unfavorable economic conditions, low income households disproportionately rely on public assistance including food stamps. What is less understood are the differential effects of macroeconomic conditions on the participation propensities of different population subgroups. Of particular importance are differential effects by age. Depending on their age, poor workers are likely to experience different patterns of unemployment so that their welfare participation patterns also differ. For example, once older workers lose their jobs, their probability of re-employment is lower than that of their younger counterparts. The reduced expectations of re-employment coupled with fewer opportunities to invest in re-training are discouraging to older unemployed persons, often implying that job losses for older workers are permanent, and eventually lead to long term reliance on welfare programs. In contrast, younger poor workers have comparatively higher chances of re-employment and exit from welfare. Whether the age differences in welfare participation will remain unchanged during economic recessions as well is still unanswered. Understanding variations in FSP participation propensities across age groups and their dependency on macroeconomic conditions is essential to predict future demand for food stamp benefits and, by extension, other welfare programs. The continuing growth in FSP demand may point to unexpectedly large fiscal burdens for future taxpayers. Moreover, understanding differential effects of macroeconomic conditions on participation propensities for different groups will allow policy makers to better identify and eventually reach genuine needy families. Therefore, this study aims to investigate FSP participation patterns with a special emphasis on the differential impact of macroeconomic factors across several demographic groups with a particular focus on age cohort effects. Specifically, transitions into and out of FSP will be explicitly addressed using longitudinal data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) 2004 panel. To measure the impact of economic conditions, we match SIPP data with economic measures such as the unemployment rate and wages at the state level available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using the data, monthly movements on and off of FSP of individuals is followed and categorized into entry sample and continuation sample. A household not participating in FSP in one month, and thus being part of the entry sample, can choose between entering or not entering FSP in the subsequent month. Similarly, a household enrolled in one month (and thus part of the continuation sample) can choose between either continuing to stay on FSP or exiting FSP in the next month. This gives rise to two types of transition models. The first model, referred to as the entry model, tackles the decision between entry versus non-entry into FSP, conditional on non-participation in the previous months. The second model, referred to as continuation model, addresses the decision between exiting from versus continuing FSP, conditional upon participation in the preceding month. Two transition models are estimated using probit technique while controlling for individual specific effects. This study finds several important results. First, there are significant age differences in entry into and exit from the FSP. The propensity of entry into the FSP among younger people is higher than among older people while young cohorts are more prone to exiting FSP than the oldest cohort of retired or retirement-bound people. The implication for the elderly is that once receiving FSP benefits, they are very likely to continue the FSP. Their observed low FSP participation rates can thus primarily be attributed to FSP entry barriers. Second, rising unemployment boosts FSP entry propensities and lengthens FSP spells. Changes in wage levels, however, affect neither entry nor exit propensities. Third, the effect of unemployment on FSP continuation propensities varies by age. The youngest cohort responds to increasing unemployment by drastically prolonging their FSP spells whereas the older extend their FSP spells more gradually. For the oldest cohort, FSP exit probabilities are even found to rise in association with rising unemployment, a phenomenon that can be explained by retirement and special transfer programs for the elderly.Food Stamp Program, Age, Macroeconomy, Transition, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, I38, J64,

SPATIAL ACCESSIBILITY OF HEALTH CARE IN INDIANA

Healthy populations and access to health care services are significant factors influencing economic development and prosperity. Since geographic access is an essential feature of an overall health system, it is important for health service researchers to develop accurate measures of physical access to health. In this paper we develop a series of gravity-based health care accessibility measures for all the counties in Indiana. The measures go beyond local availability of health care services within a county and account for travel impedance via distance-discounted health care services accessible throughout the state. When applied to Indiana counties, the results show sharp disparities in health care accessibility with extensive pockets of poor accessibility in rural and peripheral areas. The research concludes with a demonstration of how spatial accessibility measures can be beneficially used to evaluate of policies indicative of changes in the provision of health services.spatial accessibility, health care, geographic information systems (GIS),

Going West in the European Union: Migration and EU-Enlargement

Citizens of EU Member States have the fundamental right of free movement within the EU Union, and of freely choosing where to live and work within the EU. However, this right was temporarily constrained for citizens of the new Member States following the enlargement of the EU from 15 to 27 Member States. The severity of restrictions for newcomers varied substantially across the 15 old Member States. This paper analyzes whether the variations in entry restrictions influenced the distribution of migrants across the EU-15 states. To assess the effects of entry restrictions, it models and compares the distribution of migrants across the EU-15 countries prior to the enlargement with that after the enlargement. The analysis uses aggregate data on migrant stocks and migrant flows from the new Member States to the EU-15 states. The results suggest that the migration policies only had a very weak effect and did not create a new migration regime. The destination preferences of past emigrants from the East are by and large replicated by migrants who came after their home countries became members of the EU