Monitoring credit conditions in rural America

Agricultural credit ; Rural areas

Farming and the Internet: Reasons for Non-Use

Rural broadband infrastructure and service has received a significant amount of funding through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. These funds should increase broadband availability, but will broadband be used in rural areas and in particular by farmers? This paper uses Agricultural Resource Management Survey data to investigate why the majority of U.S. farmers choose not to use the Internet in their farm business. Although frequently cited by policymakers, concerns about inadequate Internet service or security actually account for a small percentage of responses. This research identifies targeted educational programs that focus on alleviating perceived barriers to Internet use.ARMS, farming, Internet, multinomial logit, non-use, Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Farm Management,

Farming and the Internet: Factors Affecting Input Purchases Online and Reasons for Non-Adoption

Using the 2005 ARMS data, significant factors are identified that influence the decision to purchase farm inputs over the Internet and reasons for not adopting the Internet. Internet input purchasing farmers tend to be younger and more educated. Non-adopters that are more educated most likely cite Internet security concerns as their primary reason for not adopting.ARMS, Internet, Farming, e-commerce, Farm Management, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q12, R1,

Can the Ag Credit Survey predict national credit conditions?

With the farm boom ending in 2009, many farmers have become less able to repay short-term loans. As farm profit margins erode and farm loan delinquencies rise, some in the agricultural industry worry that lending standards will tighten—as they did in the farm debt crisis of the 1980s. ; One barometer of future agricultural credit conditions is agricultural bankers. Experience and access to information give these bankers a unique perspective on agricultural credit conditions. In fact, several Federal Reserve banks survey agricultural bankers in their district to tap this source of information. But how reliable are regional Federal Reserve agricultural credit surveys? And can a regional survey shed light on future loan delinquencies and credit standards nationwide? ; Briggeman examines the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions to explore these questions. He concludes that the Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions reliably predicts farm loan repayment rates in the district and provides valuable insight into future farm loan delinquencies and credit standards nationwide. The most recent Survey data suggest that the nation’s farm loan delinquencies will continue to rise in the year ahead, which may cause collateral requirements to stay elevated heading into 2010.

The new ACRE program: costs and effects

In 2010, many farmers will again choose between farm safety net programs offered by the U.S. government. They can remain in the more-familiar 2002 farm program, which protects against price declines and provides traditional direct payments. Or, they can enroll in the new Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program, which protects against revenue shortfalls caused by falling prices or low yields. But ACRE requires farmers to give up a significant portion of their traditional 2002 farm program payments. Changing farm programs, especially ACRE, presents different costs and effects for not only farmers but taxpayers, too.

Protecting Your Turf: First-mover Advantages as a Barrier to Competitor Innovation

Product innovation for a juice company and its associated first-mover advantages are analyzed. Stochastic simulation is used to model market size, price, competitive intensity, and the likelihood of competitor entry. Results of moving first allow the firm to capture market share, realize first-mover advantages in excess of $2 million, and deter competitor innovation. In addition, the proposed model is flexible enough to be applied in other industries.Product innovation, first-mover advantages, barriers to entry, stochastic simulation, uncertainty, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Can the Federal Reserve Bank’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions Forecast Land Values?

The value of land dominates the financial structure of most American agricultural production firms, and land values are an important factor in long-term agricultural planning and risk management. As the primary source of collateral for farm loans, farmland values have significant implications for both producers as well as bankers financing agricultural loans. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions is an expert opinion survey in which agricultural bankers provide land value forecasts. As the survey has drawn increased attention, the survey has drawn criticism regarding its use qualitative data to forecast land values. Our research examines the value of the survey data with respect to its ability to forecast movement in land values. Three techniques are used in the analysis. Interpreting the aggregate forecasts as probability estimates, Brier’s probability scores are used to evaluate aggregate bankers’ predictions. Next, turning points are evaluated using contingency tables. Finally, Granger causality tests are used to determine the dynamic relationship between land value predictions and actual land value changes reported by bankers. Bankers’ forecasts predict land values for irrigated and ranchland well, but non-irrigated forecasts were only marginally helpful in prediction non-irrigated farmland values. Forecasts provided in the survey may be beneficial, especially considering the scarcity of other publicly available data.farmland, forecasting, land values, Federal Reserve Bank, Agribusiness, Financial Economics,