Predicting adverse outcomes following catheter ablation treatment for atrial fibrillation

Objective: To develop prognostic survival models for predicting adverse outcomes after catheter ablation treatment for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: We used a linked dataset including hospital administrative data, prescription medicine claims, emergency department presentations, and death registrations of patients in New South Wales, Australia. The cohort included patients who received catheter ablation for AF. Traditional and deep survival models were trained to predict major bleeding events and a composite of heart failure, stroke, cardiac arrest, and death. Results: Out of a total of 3285 patients in the cohort, 177 (5.3%) experienced the composite outcomeheart failure, stroke, cardiac arrest, deathand 167 (5.1%) experienced major bleeding events after catheter ablation treatment. Models predicting the composite outcome had high risk discrimination accuracy, with the best model having a concordance index > 0.79 at the evaluated time horizons. Models for predicting major bleeding events had poor risk discrimination performance, with all models having a concordance index < 0.66. The most impactful features for the models predicting higher risk were comorbidities indicative of poor health, older age, and therapies commonly used in sicker patients to treat heart failure and AF. Conclusions: Diagnosis and medication history did not contain sufficient information for precise risk prediction of experiencing major bleeding events. The models for predicting the composite outcome have the potential to enable clinicians to identify and manage high-risk patients following catheter ablation proactively. Future research is needed to validate the usefulness of these models in clinical practice.Comment: Under journal revie

The household economic burden for acute coronary syndrome survivors in Australia

Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background: Studies of chronic diseases are associated with a financial burden on households. We aimed to determine if survivors of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) experience household economic burden and to quantify any potential burden by examining level of economic hardship and factors associated with hardship. Methods: Australian patients admitted to hospital with ACS during 2-week period in May 2012, enrolled in SNAPSHOT ACS audit and who were alive at 18 months after index admission were followed-up via telephone/paper survey. Regression models were used to explore factors related to out-of-pocket expenses and economic hardship. Results: Of 1833 eligible patients at baseline, 180 died within 18 months, and 702 patients completed the survey. Mean out-of-pocket expenditure (n = 614) in Australian dollars was A$258.06 (median: A$126.50) per month. The average spending for medical services was A$120.18 (SD: A$310.35) and medications was A$66.25 (SD: A$80.78). In total, 350 (51 %) of patients reported experiencing economic hardship, 78 (12 %) were unable to pay for medical services and 81 (12 %) could not pay for medication. Younger age (18–59 vs ≥80 years (OR): 1.89), no private health insurance (OR: 2.04), pensioner concession card (OR: 1.80), residing in more disadvantaged area (group 1 vs 5 (OR): 1.77), history of CVD (OR: 1.47) and higher out-of-pocket expenses (group 4 vs 1 (OR): 4.57) were more likely to experience hardship. Conclusion: Subgroups of ACS patients are experiencing considerable economic burden in Australia. These findings provide important considerations for future policy development in terms of the cost of recommended management for patients

Using Australia’s National Data Linkage Demonstration Project (NDLDP) to improve cardiac care: Towards a national, whole-of-population linked data resource for evidence-informed health policy

Introduction In Australia, the Commonwealth, State and Territory governments are each responsible for specific aspects of health care. Historically, cross-jurisdictional health data have not been linked routinely, resulting in significant blind spots in our understanding of the interplay between hospital and primary care, a major impediment to evidence-informed health policy. Objectives and Approach In December 2016, the Australian Health Ministers’ Advisory Council approved the NDLDP, to establish the value of national linked data to inform health planning and policy. The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) linked five years of hospital, emergency department, pharmaceutical dispensing, medical services claims and mortality data for Australia’s two most populous states (New South Wales and Victoria). The Victorian Agency for Health Innovation (VAHI) is leading the ‘Delivering better cardiac outcomes: Primary, specialist and hospital care’ project to demonstrate the value of the collection in identifying evidence-practice gaps and driving change in cardiac care. Results The NDLDP combined data for over 10 million individuals with over 7 billion records of health transactions, utilising a new strategy for confidentialising dates to protect patient privacy. The NDLDP is governed by a Steering Committee; the AIHW is the data custodian approving outputs from analyses within a secure host environment. VAHI established a Project Steering Committee to oversee roll-out, governance and capacity building of the approved cardiac project. The VAHI project was instigated by evidence that best-practice pharmacological treatments for cardiac care are underutilised in Australia, but with no quantification of the population-level extent of this gap. The project quantified significant variations and underuse of post-discharge pharmacological care for patients admitted to hospital with key cardiac conditions, including atrial fibrillation and acute myocardial infarction. Conclusion/Implications This collaboration between government, clinical networks and academic researchers demonstrated this novel data linkage can enable evaluation of patient care pathways across both hospital and community-based services. These linked data resources provide essential information to investigate variation in care in Australia and improve care integration in cardiac care and beyond

Longer-term oral antiplatelet use in stable post-myocardial infarction patients: Insights from the long Term rIsk, clinical manaGement and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery dISease (TIGRIS) observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe contemporary patient characteristics and treatment patterns, including antithrombotic management, of post-myocardial infarction (MI) stable coronary artery disease (CAD) patients at high atherothrombotic risk from different geographical regions. METHODS: Patients ≥50years with prior MI 1-3years ago and ≥1 risk factor (age ≥65years, diabetes, 2nd prior MI >1yr ago, multivessel CAD, creatinine clearance 15-1year was highest (39%) in Asia-Pacific and lowest (12%) in Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Despite guideline recommendations, 1 in 4 post-MI patients did not receive DAPT for ~1year. In contrast to guideline recommendations supporting newer ADPris, clopidogrel was mainly prescribed. Prior to recent RCT data supporting DAPT >1year post-MI/PCI, >1 in 4 patients have continued on DAPT, though with substantial international variability

Reperfusion in patients with renal dysfunction after presentation with ST-segment elevation or left bundle branch block:GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events)

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the relative benefit of reperfusion strategies in renal dysfunction and ST-segment elevation/left bundle branch block (STE/LBBB). BACKGROUND: Few data are available informing the treatment of STE myocardial infarction in the presence of renal dysfunction. METHODS: Patients (N = 12,532) from the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) presenting with STE/LBBB were stratified by renal function and receipt of fibrinolysis, primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), or neither. RESULTS: As renal function declined, hospital mortality increased and reperfusion decreased (both p \u3c 0.001). Compared with no reperfusion, primary PCI was associated with lower hospital mortality in patients with normal renal function (1.9% vs. 3.7%, p = 0.001, adjusted) but no reduction in those with renal dysfunction (14% vs. 15% for glomerular filtration rate [GFR] 30 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m(2); 29% vs. 32% for GFR \u3c30 ml/min/1.73 m(2)). Fibrinolysis was not associated with lower hospital mortality for normal (3.1% vs. 3.7%, p = NS) or low renal function (32% vs. 32%, p = NS) and with higher mortality with moderate renal dysfunction (adjusted odds ratio: 1.35, 95% confidence interval: 1.01 to 1.80). Primary PCI was associated with increased hospital bleeding and fibrinolysis with increased stroke in all patients. Among hospital survivors, primary PCI, but not fibrinolysis, was associated with lower mortality for moderate dysfunction. Both reperfusion strategies were associated with higher mortality for severe dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS: In STE/LBBB and renal dysfunction, mortality rates are high and reperfusion rates are lower. In moderate renal dysfunction, primary PCI is associated with mortality reduction at 6 months. Outcomes remain poor with severe renal dysfunction, despite receipt of reperfusion therapy

Predicting risk of cardiovascular events 1 to 3 years post-myocardial infarction using a global registry.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction tools are lacking for patients with stable disease some years after myocardial infarction (MI). HYPOTHESIS: A practical long-term cardiovascular risk index can be developed. METHODS: The long-Term rIsk, Clinical manaGement and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery dISease in post-myocardial infarction patients prospective global registry enrolled patients 1 to 3 years post-MI (369 centers; 25 countries), all with ≥1 risk factor (age ≥65 years, diabetes mellitus requiring medication, second prior MI, multivessel coronary artery disease, or chronic non-end-stage kidney disease [CKD]). Self-reported health was assessed with EuroQoL-5 dimensions. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to determine key predictors of the primary composite outcome (MI, unstable angina with urgent revascularization [UA], stroke, or all-cause death) over 2 years. RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in 621 (6.9%) of 9027 eligible patients: death 295 (3.3%), MI 195 (2.2%), UA 103 (1.1%), and stroke 58 (0.6%). All events accrued linearly. In a multivariable model, 11 significant predictors of primary outcome (age ≥65 years, diabetes, second prior MI, CKD, history of major bleed, peripheral arterial disease, heart failure, cardiovascular hospitalization (prior 6 months), medical management (index MI), on diuretic, and poor self-reported health) were identified and combined into a user-friendly risk index. Compared with lowest-risk patients, those in the top 16% had a rate ratio of 6.9 for the primary composite, and 18.7 for all-cause death (overall c-statistic; 0.686, and 0.768, respectively). External validation was performed using the Australian Cooperative National Registry of Acute Coronary Care, Guideline Adherence and Clinical Events registry (c-statistic; 0.748, and 0.849, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In patients >1-year post-MI, recurrent cardiovascular events and deaths accrue linearly. A simple risk index can stratify patients, potentially helping to guide management

Association between smoking, outcomes, and early clopidogrel use in patients with acute coronary syndrome:insights from the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events

BACKGROUND: Smoking induces CYP1A2, thereby enhancing clopidogrel conversion to its active metabolite. We sought to determine the association between clopidogrel use and clinical outcomes in smokers versus nonsmokers with a broad spectrum of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: We examined the association between early clopidogrel use in-hospital and 6-month outcomes among 44,426 patients with ACS in relation to smoking status in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events. We tested for heterogeneity of clopidogrel effect among smokers versus nonsmokers in separate multivariable models that adjusted for (1) established prognosticators in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score and (2) independent predictors of major bleeding. RESULTS: Rates of in-hospital mortality, death/myocardial infarction, and major bleeding were 4.3%, 5.9%, and 2.5%, respectively. Current smokers (n = 12,149) were more likely to be younger men without documented vascular disease; had lower rates of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes; and more frequently presented with ST elevation (all P \u3c .0001). Early clopidogrel use (55%) was associated with a reduction in the composite endpoint of mortality and myocardial infarction both in-hospital and at 6 months among current smokers and nonsmokers. There was no interaction between current smoking and clopidogrel use for ischemic endpoints. Major bleeding associated with early clopidogrel use was actually lower among current smokers compared with nonsmokers. CONCLUSIONS: Despite prior observations of smoking-enhanced clopidogrel effects, early clopidogrel use among smokers presenting with ACS compared with nonsmokers was not independently associated with a greater reduction in cardiovascular events. In contrast with nonsmokers, clopidogrel use among smokers was not associated with excess bleeding, perhaps because of unmeasured confounders

The underutilisation of dual antiplatelet therapy in acute coronary syndrome

Background Despite guideline recommendation of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) in treating ACS, DAPT is underutilized. Our objective was to determine independent predictors of DAPT non-prescription in ACS and describe pattern of DAPT prescription over time. Methods Patients presenting to 41 Australian hospitals with an ACS diagnosis between 2009 and 2016 were stratified according to discharge prescription with DAPT and single antiplatelet therapy (SAPT) or no antiplatelet therapy. Multiple stepwise logistic regression, accounting for within hospital clustering, was used to determine the independent predictors of DAPT non-prescription, defined as discharge with SAPT alone or no antiplatelet agent. Results 8939 patients survived to discharge with an ACS diagnosis. Of these, 6294 (70.4%) patients were discharged on DAPT, 2154 (24.1%) on SAPT and 491 (5.5%) on no antiplatelet agent. Independent predictors of DAPT non-prescription in the overall cohort were: in-hospital CABG (OR 0.09, 95%CI 0.05–0.14), discharge with warfarin (0.10 (0.07–0.14)), in hospital major bleeding (0.48 (0.34–0.67), diagnosis of unstable angina (0.35, (0.27–0.45)), non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (0.67 (0.57–0.78)) [both vs. ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction], in hospital atrial arrhythmia (0.72 (0.60–0.86)), history of hypertension (0.83 (0.73–0.94)) and GRACE high risk (0.83 (0.71–0.98)). There was an increase in prescription of DAPT and a shift towards ticagrelor over clopidogrel for ACS from 2013 to 2016 (p\ua

Evaluation of the impact of the GRACE risk score on the management and outcome of patients hospitalised with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome: protocol of the UKGRIS cluster-randomised registry-based trial.

Introduction For non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS) there is a gap between the use of class 1 guideline recommended therapies and clinical practice. The GRACE risk score is recommended in international guidelines for the risk stratification of NSTEACS, but its impact on adherence to guideline-indicated treatments and reducing adverse clinical outcomes is unknown. The objective of the UKGRIS trial is to assess the effectiveness of the GRACE risk score tool and associated treatment recommendations on the use of guideline-indicated care and clinical outcomes. Methods and Analysis The UK GRACE Risk Score Intervention Study (UKGRIS), a parallel-group cluster randomised registry-based controlled trial, will allocate hospitals in a 1:1 ratio to manage NSTEACS by standard care or according to the GRACE risk score and associated international guidelines. UKGRIS will recruit a minimum of 3000 patients from at least 30 English National Health Service hospitals and collect healthcare data from national electronic health records. The co-primary endpoints are the use of guideline-indicated therapies, and the composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, new onset heart failure hospitalisation or cardiovascular readmission at 12 months. Secondary endpoints include duration of inpatient hospital stay over 12 months, EQ-5D- 5L responses and utilities, unscheduled revascularisation and the components of the composite endpoint over 12 months follow-up. Ethics and Dissemination The study has ethical approval (Ethics Committee ref: 4/NE/1180). Findings will be announced at relevant conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals