A two regime model of inflation and unemployment fluctuations

In this paper we present a formal definition of the notions of economic regime and regime dynamics. Starting from these definitions, we discuss a multiple regime dynamic model generating an endogenous unemployment-price adjustment mechanism. Two different employment regimes are introduced and the regime dynamics properties of the model are analyzed. Specifically, we assume that the equations governing employment and prices dynamics undergo a discontinuous change in regime when a critical value of unemployment rate is reached. Depending on parameter values, we show that this model is capable of producing a rich variety of dynamic behavior, including complex irregular fluctuations. The main result of this paper is the representation of the regime dynamics via symbolic dynamics. In particular, we show that the regime dynamics of the model can be represented by a shift of finite type that depends on parameter values. In some particular cases, we can also have a representation via directed vertex graphs. An important consequence of this is the possibility of measuring the complexity of the model by using the entropy measure.

Symbolic Time Series Analysis in Economics

In this paper I describe and apply the methods of Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) to an experimental framework. The idea behind Symbolic Time Series Analysis is simple: the values of a given time series data are transformed into a finite set of symbols obtaining a finite string. Then, we can process the symbolic sequence using tools from information theory and symbolic dynamics. I discuss data symbolization as a tool for identifying temporal patterns in experimental data and use symbol sequence statistics in a model strategy. To explain these applications, I describe methods to select the symbolization of the data (Section 2), I introduce the symbolic sequence histograms and some tools to characterize and compare these histograms (Section 3). I show that the methods of symbolic time series analysis can be a good tool to describe and recognize time patterns in complex dynamical processes and to extract dynamical information about this kind of system. In particular, the method gives us a language in which to express and analyze these time patterns. In section 4 I report some applications of STSA to study the evolution of ifferent economies. In these applications data symbolization is based on economic criteria using the notion of economic regime introduced earlier in this thesis. I use STSA methods to describe the dynamical behavior of these economies and to do comparative analysis of their regime dynamics. In section 5 I use STSA to reconstruct a model of a dynamical system from measured time series data. In particular, I will show how the observed symbolic sequence statistics can be used as a target for measuring the goodness of fit of proposed models.

Perceived authenticity and museum visitors' behavior: a case of South Tirol's museum of archeology in Bolzano

In this study we analyze perception of authenticity by visitors of South Tyrol's museum of archeology, best known as Otzi museum, in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano (Italy). With the help of factor analysis we individuate two factors related to authenticity and study the determinants of the perception of authenticity by the visitors. Individuated factors are then employed to explain visitors' behavior at the museum. In particular, we study how perception of authenticity is related to the time visitors spend at the museum. Next we investigate the influence of authenticity on shopping behavior of museum visitors. The relevant data were obtained from a survey undertaken in the months from June to August 2010 at site. The empirical findings provide important insights for the management of the Otzi museum.Authenticity, museum management, souvenirs, factor analysis, tobit regression.

The Ramsey model with logistic population growth

In standard economic growth theory it is assumed that labor force follows exponential growth, a not realistic assumption. As described in Maynard Smith (1974), the growth of natural populations is more accurately depicted by a logistic growth law. In this paper we analyze how the Ramsey growth model is affected by logistic growth of population, comparing it with the classic Ramsey model. We show that there is a unique nontrivial steady state of the model and that the parameters of the logistic equation play no role in determining long run equilibrium per worker level of consumption and capital. In addition, we study the stability of the model showing that its nontrivial equilibrium is a saddle point.

The Solow model in discrete time and decreasing population growth rate

This paper reformulates the neoclassical Solow-Swan model of economic growth in discrete time by introducing a generic population growth law that verifies the following properties: 1) population is strictly increasing and bounded 2) the rate of growth of population is decreasing to zero as time tends to infinity. We show that in the long run the capital per worker of the model converges to the non-trivial steady state of the Solow Swan model with zero labor growth rate. In addition we prove that the solutions of the model are asymptotically stable.Solow model

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ADVERTISING ON TOURISM DEMAND

In this paper we introduce a dynamic model to study the macroeconomic effects of advertising activities in tourism. The agents of the model are a representative consumer which optimize their intertemporal welfare, a representative firm that produces tourism services, an authority which organizes tourism advertising abroad and foreigner tourists. We show that in the short run, an increase in marketing expenditures raises foreigner's tourism demand, leads to an increase in the relative price of tourism services, makes tourism production more attractive and stimulates capital investment. As time passes, the capital stock increases and tourism production expands, leading to a falling price of tourism. In the long run, the increase in marketing activities results in a higher rate of tourism production, a higher capital stock, a lower relative price of tourism services and a reduction of net foreign assets.

The Dynamic Effects of Subsidizing the Tourism Sector

The paper studies the short run and long run effects of a production subsidy to the tourism sector of a small open economy, which can also be thought as a region within a country. We introduce a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model where the tourism sector is considered to be labor-intensive and produces traded services. The other sector is capital-intensive and produces a nontraded good, which is also used for capital accumulation. Labor and capital can freely move between sectors. Economic decisions are made by forward-looking representative agents, which optimize their intertemporal welfare by choosing consumption of both the nontraded good and tourism services, the sectoral allocation of labor, and the rate of wealth accumulation. We discuss the short run, dynamic and long run effects of a production subsidy to the tourism sector. In the short run, the introduction of a subsidy to tourism production leads to a boom in that sector. As time passes, the economy-wide capital stock is decumulated, and production of tourism is falling. In the long run, compared to the situation before the subsidy was implemented, tourism production remains on a higher level, whereas output of the nontraded good drops.dynamic open economy two-sector model; tourism; subsidies; deindustrialization

Dynamic and Structure of the Italian stock market based on returns and volume trading

In this paper we introduce a new method to describe dynamical patterns of multidimensional time. The method combines the tools of Symbolic Time Series Analysis with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm. Data symbolization allows to obtain a metric distance between two different time series that is used to construct an ultrametric distance. The methodology is applied to examine the dynamics and structure of the Italian stock market considering both asset returns and volume trading to model the market. We derive a hierarchical organization, constructing minimal-spanning and hierarchical trees, both in normal and extreme situations of the market. From these trees we detect four clusters of firms according to their proximity. We show that the financial cluster is in a central position of the minimal spanning tree, both in normal and extreme situations, reflecting that financial companies represent more than 30% of the Italian market capitalization. We also show that the derived clusters corresponds with companies sharing common economic activities.

Visitors' experience in a modern art museum: a structural equation model

This study aims to provide a better understanding on the museum experience by studying visitors’ motivation, satisfaction and likelihood to return to the Museum for Modern and Contemporary Art (MART) of Rovereto (Italy). The empirical data were obtained from a survey undertaken from September to November 2009. A theoretical model to analyze the attractiveness factors of the museum based on two exogenous variables (push and pull motivation) and two endogenous variables (satisfaction and loyalty) is used and a structural equation model is estimated as a confirmatory tool of the hypothetical model. The findings reveal that tourists visiting the MART are mainly motivated by push factors, as relaxation, looking for a new experience and learn new things. Loyalty also positively influences the probability to return to the MART and recommend to friends and family. However, visit the city or the region of Trentino has no impact on satisfaction and loyalty to the MART. Besides, loyalty to MART does not imply the probability to recommend a visit to Rovereto