The rise and demise of the Glanville fritillary on the Isle of Wight

The Glanville fritillary is one of Britain’s rarest breeding butterflies, and is predominantly restricted to the south coast of the Isle of Wight. Populations have been monitored annually at a high proportion of known sites by counting the number of larval ‘webs’ during spring since 1996. In this paper, we present population time series for eight core sites. Populations have been observed to fluctuate considerably over the last 18 years, with a high degree of synchrony between sites. Recently, numbers of larval webs have shown a severe decline, with simultaneous extinctions occurring across many former strongholds. We combine our web count data with counts of adult butterflies from five sites of the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme. Together, these data suggest that the Glanville fritillary is threatened by extinction on the Isle of Wight, and that the total area used for breeding is likely no more than a few km2. The results flag up the need for a national census of remaining populations and further research to understand causes of decline, so that a conservation recovery plan can be developed

Comparison of trends in butterfly populations between monitoring schemes

Butterflies are an important indicator of the impacts of environmental change. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMS) have provided national and Europe-wide trends in their abundance and been widely used for research. Most schemes sample sites that are self-selected by contributors and therefore tend to cover locations that are rich in butterflies. To provide a more representative assessment of butterfly populations, the wider countryside butterfly survey (WCBS) was developed with a stratified-random sample of survey sites across the UK. We compare butterfly trends from the WCBS locations against those measured from traditional butterfly transects which are typically located in areas of good quality semi-natural habitats. Across the 26 species analysed, there was a significant positive relationship between trends measured from the two schemes between 2009 and 2013, the period when both schemes were operating fully. There was a tendency (17 out of 26 species analysed) for these changes to be greater within WCBS compared to traditional BMS transects, although this effect was not consistent across comparisons between pairs of consecutive years. When assessing these individual year-to-year changes, there was however a significant correlation between the two schemes in all cases. Over relatively short time periods, weather patterns are likely to dominate butterfly population fluctuations and lead to comparable trends across monitoring schemes. Over longer time periods, differences in land management may affect habitat condition differently for protected areas versus the wider countryside and it is therefore important to maintain comprehensive butterfly monitoring programmes to detect and interpret such effects

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well-documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi-taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post-1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across-species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across-species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non-climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large-scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain

BICCO-Net II. Final report to the Biological Impacts of Climate Change Observation Network (BICCO-Net) Steering Group

• BICCO-Net Phase II presents the most comprehensive single assessment of climate change impacts on UK biodiversity to date. • The results provide a valuable resource for the CCRA 2018, future LWEC report cards, the National Adaptation Programme and other policy-relevant initiatives linked to climate change impacts on biodiversity