Estimating the distribution of morbidity and mortality of childhood diarrhea, measles, and pneumonia by wealth group in low- and middle-income countries

__Background:__ Equitable access to vaccines has been suggested as a priority for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, it is unclear whether providing equitable access is enough to ensure health equity. Furthermore, disaggregated data on health outcomes and benefits gained across population subgroups are often unavailable. This paper develops a model to estimate the distribution of childhood disease cases and deaths across socioeconomic groups, and the potential benefits of three vaccine programs in LMICs. __Methods:__ For each country and for three diseases (diarrhea, measles, pneumonia), we estimated the distributions of cases and deaths that would occur across wealth quintiles in the absence of any immunization or treatment programs, using both the prevalence and relative risk of a set of risk and prognostic factors. Building on these baseline estimates, we examined what might be the impact of three vaccines (first dose of measles, pneumococcal conjugate, and rotavirus vaccines), under five scenarios based on different sets of quintile-specific immunization coverage and disease treatment utilization rates. __Results:__ Due to higher prevalence of risk factors among the poor, disproportionately more disease cases and deaths would occur among the two lowest wealth quintiles for all three diseases when vaccines or treatment are unavailable. Country-specific context, including how the baseline risks, immunization coverage, and treatment utilization are currently distributed across quintiles, affects how different policies translate into changes in cases and deaths distribution. __Conclusions:__ Our study highlights several factors that would substantially contribute to the unequal distribution of childhood diseases, and finds that merely ensuring equal access to vaccines will not reduce the health outcomes gap across wealth quintiles. Such information can inform policies and planning of programs that aim to improve equitable delivery of healthcare services

Estimates of case-fatality ratios of measles in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the 21st century, increases in immunisation coverage and decreases in under-5 mortality have substantially reduced the global burden of measles mortality. However, the assessment of measles mortality burden is highly dependent on estimates of case-fatality ratios for measles, which can vary according to geography, health systems infrastructure, prevalence of underlying risk factors, and measles endemicity. With imprecise case-fatality ratios, there is continued uncertainty about the burden of measles mortality and the effect of measles vaccination. In this study, we aimed to update the estimations of case-fatality ratios for measles, to develop a prediction model to estimate case-fatality ratios across heterogeneous groupings, and to project future case-fatality ratios for measles up to 2030. METHODS: We did a review of the literature to identify studies examining measles cases and deaths in low-income and middle-income countries in all age groups from 1980 to 2016. We extracted data on case-fatality ratios for measles overall and by age, where possible. We developed and examined several types of generalised linear models and determined the best-fit model according to the Akaike information criterion. We then selected a best-fit model to estimate measles case-fatality ratios from 1990 to 2015 and projected future case-fatality ratios for measles up to 2030. FINDINGS: We selected 124 peer-reviewed journal articles published between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016, for inclusion in the final review-85 community-based studies and 39 hospital-based studies. We selected a log-linear prediction model, resulting in a mean case-fatality ratio of 2·2% (95% CI 0·7-4·5) in 1990-2015. In community-based settings, the mean case-fatality ratio was 1·5% (0·5-3·1) compared with 2·9% (0·9-6·0) in hospital-based settings. The mean projected case-fatality ratio in 2016-2030 was 1·3% (0·4-3·7). INTERPRETATION: Case-fatality ratios for measles have seen substantial declines since the 1990s. Our study provides an updated estimation of case-fatality ratios that could help to refine assessment of the effect on mortality of measles control and elimination programmes. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Financial Implications of Tariffs for Medical Oxygen on Rwandan Public Hospitals' Finance Management During the Coronavirus Epidemic

In Rwanda, provider reimbursements for oxygen are based on the duration of patient consumption at a fixed hourly tariff rate. This study sought to assess whether the current insurance tariff in Rwanda was adequate to cover the costs of oxygen used in oxygen therapy and to explore alternative tariff models.The assessment found that hospitals make a marginal surplus from low volume flow rate patients and incur losses from patients who require high volume flow rates. In high volume nonspecialized hospitals with a large pool of patients consuming medical oxygen, low flow rate usage patients (e.g., neonates) tend to subsidize high flow usage patients (surgery), if the number of patients consuming low flow oxygen is higher than the latter. The study found that the current tariff was sufficient before the exponential surge in demand for high flow usage during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. A variable tariff that factors both the duration (hours) and the volume (liters) used during the therapy may require more work but better reflects the cost of consumption in each ward. A case-based payment model provides a standard pricing framework based on the patient's diagnosis, intervention, and intensity of treatment.This study highlights the need for a transition from the time-based tariff structure to a case-based or volume-based tariff to incentivize sustainable production and provision (supply) of medical oxygen services at health facilities in Rwanda. Social health insurance reimbursement tariffs for medical oxygen need to reflect both duration and volume of consumption because oxygen therapy varies based on intervention, disease severity, patient age, length of stay, and responsiveness to treatment

The need for sustainability and alignment of future support for National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) in low and middle-income countries.

National Immunisation Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) provide independent guidance to health ministries to support evidence-based and nationally relevant immunisation decisions. We examined NITAGs' value, sustainability, and need for support in low and middle-income countries, drawing from a mixed-methods study including 130 global and national-level key informant interviews. NITAGs were particularly valued for providing independent and nationally owned evidence-based decision-making (EBDM), but needed to be integrated within national processes to effectively balance independence and influence. Participants agreed that most NITAGs, being relatively new, would need developmental and strengthening support for at least a decade. While national governments could support NITAG functioning, external support is likely needed for requisite capacity building. This might come from Gavi mechanisms and WHO, but would require alignment among stakeholders to be effective

Differential health impact of intervention programs for time-varying disease risk: a measles vaccination modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic modeling is commonly used to evaluate direct and indirect effects of interventions on infectious disease incidence. The risk of secondary outcomes (e.g., death) attributable to infection may depend on the underlying disease incidence targeted by the intervention. Consequently, the impact of interventions (e.g., the difference in vaccination and no-vaccination scenarios) on secondary outcomes may not be proportional to the reduction in disease incidence. Here, we illustrate the estimation of the impact of vaccination on measles mortality, where case fatality ratios (CFRs) are a function of dynamically changing measles incidence. METHODS: We used a previously published model of measles CFR that depends on incidence and vaccine coverage to illustrate the effects of (1) assuming higher CFR in "no-vaccination" scenarios, (2) time-varying CFRs over the past, and (3) time-varying CFRs in future projections on measles impact estimation. We used modeled CFRs in alternative scenarios to estimate measles deaths from 2000 to 2030 in 112 low- and middle-income countries using two models of measles transmission: Pennsylvania State University (PSU) and DynaMICE. We evaluated how different assumptions on future vaccine coverage, measles incidence, and CFR levels in "no-vaccination" scenarios affect the estimation of future deaths averted by measles vaccination. RESULTS: Across 2000-2030, when CFRs are separately estimated for the "no-vaccination" scenario, the measles deaths averted estimated by PSU increased from 85.8% with constant CFRs to 86.8% with CFRs varying 2000-2018 and then held constant or 85.9% with CFRs varying across the entire time period and by DynaMICE changed from 92.0 to 92.4% or 91.9% in the same scenarios, respectively. By aligning both the "vaccination" and "no-vaccination" scenarios with time-variant measles CFR estimates, as opposed to assuming constant CFRs, the number of deaths averted in the vaccination scenarios was larger in historical years and lower in future years. CONCLUSIONS: To assess the consequences of health interventions, impact estimates should consider the effect of "no-intervention" scenario assumptions on model parameters, such as measles CFR, in order to project estimated impact for alternative scenarios according to intervention strategies and investment decisions

Poverty reduction and equity benefits of introducing or scaling up measles, rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Introduction: Beyond their impact on health, vaccines can lead to large economic benefits. While most economic evaluations of vaccines have focused on the health impact of vaccines at a national scale, it is critical to understand how their impact is distributed along population subgroups. Methods: We build a financial risk protection model to evaluate the impact of immunisation against measles, severe pneumococcal disease and severe rotavirus for birth cohorts vaccinated over 2016–2030 for three scenarios in 41 Gavi-eligible countries: no immunisation, current immunisation coverage forecasts and the current immunisation coverage enhanced with funding support. We distribute modelled disease cases per socioeconomic group and derive the number of cases of: (1) catastrophic health costs (CHCs) and (2) medical impoverishment. Results: In the absence of any vaccine coverage, the number of CHC cases attributable to measles, severe pneumococcal disease and severe rotavirus would be approximately 18.9 million, 6.6 million and 2.2 million, respectively. Expanding vaccine coverage would reduce this number by up to 90%, 30% and 40% in each case. More importantly, we find a higher share of CHC incidence among the poorest quintiles who consequently benefit more from vaccine expansion. Conclusion: Our findings contribute to the understanding of how vaccines can have a broad economic impact. In particular, we find that immunisation programmes can reduce the proportion of households facing catastrophic payments from out-of-pocket health expenses, mainly in lower socioeconomic groups. Thus, vaccines could have an important role in poverty reduction

Costs of introducing pneumococcal, rotavirus and a second dose of measles vaccine into the Zambian immunisation programme: Are expansions sustainable?

BACKGROUND: Introduction of new vaccines in low- and lower middle-income countries has accelerated since Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance was established in 2000. This study sought to (i) estimate the costs of introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, rotavirus vaccine and a second dose of measles vaccine in Zambia; and (ii) assess affordability of the new vaccines in relation to Gavi's co-financing and eligibility policies. METHODS: Data on 'one-time' costs of cold storage expansions, training and social mobilisation were collected from the government and development partners. A detailed economic cost study of routine immunisation based on a representative sample of 51 health facilities provided information on labour and vaccine transport costs. Gavi co-financing payments and immunisation programme costs were projected until 2022 when Zambia is expected to transition from Gavi support. The ability of Zambia to self-finance both new and traditional vaccines was assessed by comparing these with projected government health expenditures. RESULTS: 'One-time' costs of introducing the three vaccines amounted to US$0.28 per capita. The new vaccines increased annual immunisation programme costs by 38$ 102. Co-financing payments on average increased by 10% during 2008-2017, but must increase 49% annually between 2017 and 2022. In 2014, the government spent approximately 6% of its health expenditures on immunisation. Assuming no real budget increases, immunisation would account for around 10% in 2022. Vaccines represented 1% of government, non-personnel expenditures for health in 2014, and would be 6% in 2022, assuming no real budget increases. CONCLUSION: While the introduction of new vaccines is justified by expected positive health impacts, long-term affordability will be challenging in light of the current economic climate in Zambia. The government needs to both allocate more resources to the health sector and seek efficiency gains within service provision

The Equity Impact Vaccines May Have On Averting Deaths And Medical Impoverishment In Developing Countries.

With social policies increasingly directed toward enhancing equity through health programs, it is important that methods for estimating the health and economic benefits of these programs by subpopulation be developed, to assess both equity concerns and the programs' total impact. We estimated the differential health impact (measured as the number of deaths averted) and household economic impact (measured as the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted) of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis indicated that benefits across these vaccines would accrue predominantly in the lowest income quintiles. Policy makers should be informed about the large health and economic distributional impact that vaccines could have, and they should view vaccination policies as potentially important channels for improving health equity. Our results provide insight into the distribution of vaccine-preventable diseases and the health benefits associated with their prevention

Exploring system drivers of gender inequity in development assistance for health and opportunities for action [version 2; peer review: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

Background: Deep-rooted and widespread gender-based bias and discrimination threaten achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Despite evidence that addressing gender inequities contributes to better health and development outcomes, the resources for, and effectiveness of, such efforts in development assistance for health (DAH) have been insufficient. This paper explores systemic challenges in DAH that perpetuate or contribute to gender inequities, with a particular focus on the role of external donors and funders. Methods: We applied a co-creation system design process to map and analyze interactions between donors and recipient countries, and articulate drivers of gender inequities within the landscape of DAH. We conducted qualitative primary data collection and analysis in 2021 via virtual facilitated discussions and visual mapping exercises among a diverse set of 41 stakeholders, including representatives from donor institutions, country governments, academia, and civil society. Results: Six systemic challenges emerged as perpetuating or contributing to gender inequities in DAH: 1) insufficient input and leadership from groups affected by gender bias and discrimination; 2) decision-maker blind spots inhibit capacity to address gender inequities; 3) imbalanced power dynamics contribute to insufficient resources and attention to gender priorities; 4) donor funding structures limit efforts to effectively address gender inequities; 5) fragmented programming impedes coordinated attention to the root causes of gender inequities; and 6) data bias contributes to insufficient understanding of and attention to gender inequities. Conclusions: Many of the drivers impeding progress on gender equity in DAH are embedded in power dynamics that distance and disempower people affected by gender inequities. Overcoming these dynamics will require more than technical solutions. Groups affected by gender inequities must be centered in leadership and decision-making at micro and macro levels, with practices and structures that enable co-creation and mutual accountability in the design, implementation, and evaluation of health programs