Economic transformation in theory and practice: What are the messages for Africa?

"Encouraging signs of growth acceleration in Africa may herald a new development era of rapid transformation. In an effort to promote the future success of African transformation, we herein provide an extensive literature review on development economics and empirical observations from successfully transformed countries, along with analytic narratives on the transformations of Thailand and Mexico. To conclude, we derive six key messages for African transformation. We find that the traditional development economics theory is consistent with the transformation practice of successful countries. However, this theory needs to be broadened in light of rising inequalities during transformation. Success vitally depends on agricultural development; early withdrawal of public support away from agriculture slows down transformation, and the resulting inequalities are recognized as a persistent development challenge. Transformation also depends on industrialization strategies, but we find that winner-picking industrialization negatively affects other aspects of development, whereas home-grown, export-oriented industrialization led by private entrepreneurs opens up broader opportunities for sustainable growth. Finally, government support will be required to create a business-promoting environment and to offer incentives for African entrepreneurs to lead growth." from authors' abstractEconomic transformation, Agricultural growth, structural change, Development strategies,

Asian-driven resource booms in Africa: Rethinking the impacts on development

"Today's resource boom in Africa, driven by Asian economic growth, offers new opportunities for resource-rich African countries. Contrary to the experience of previous booms, however, most mining profits now accrue to foreign companies, leaving little room for governments to use revenues for pro-poor investments or to mitigate adverse distributional impacts. Taking Zambia as a case study, this paper shows that despite privatization, Dutch disease remains a valid concern and may hamper economic diversification, worsen income distribution, and undermine poverty reduction strategies. Mining royalties must, therefore, be increased and used to finance growth-inducing investments that encourage pro-poor economic diversification, else many African countries will remain caught in a resource trap." from Author's AbstractDutch disease, Resource booms, Privatization, Income distribution,

Foreign inflows and growth challenges for African countries

Foreign inflows are important sources of income that many African governments use to finance public investments and to support the development of manufacturing or export-oriented service sectors. Yet the recent growth experience of many African economies shows that domestic-oriented industry (construction, utilities) and services have become the largest sectors. Using Ghana and its newly found oil as an example, we analyze the dynamic relationship between increasing foreign inflows and economic growth and structural change by developing a multisector intertemporal general equilibrium model. We find that the sudden increase in petrodollars used to finance either the government�s recurrent spending or public investment generates a substantial short-run growth shock consistent with the Dutch disease theory. Opposed short-run effects on the growth of the tradable and nontraded sectors lead the structure of the economy to become more domestic oriented. The creation of an oil fund helps reduce the negative growth and structural effect, while in the longer term, if oil spending does not enhance productivity, growth declines and the GDP share of the nontraded sector further increases. Smart use of oil revenue thus not only involves the creation of an oil fund but also spending inflows on productivity-enhancing investment. Whether public investments can help overcome Dutch disease effects also depends on the growth magnitude of the inflows. At the same level of investment-to-productivity-growth efficiency, public investments take longer to overcome the negative growth effects the higher the growth rate of inflows. This paper further shows that the structural effect of foreign inflows on economic development is a long-term challenge for Africa. The domestic-oriented economic structure can become a persistent phenomenon for countries that continue to receive foreign inflows in the form of petrodollars or in any other form.Dutch disease, foreign inflows, Growth, intertemporal general equilibrium, structural change,

Petroleum subsidies in Yemen : leveraging reform for development

Petroleum subsidy reform is increasingly seen as an opportunity for consolidating public finances and fostering sustainable economic development. Yemen, as the country with the lowest per capita income in the group of countries with a high level of energy subsidies, started to reduce subsidies in 2010 and is discussing further options for reform. The results of this paper support a comprehensive petroleum subsidy reform in Yemen. Economic growth is projected to accelerate between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points annually as a result of reform. Yet, the design of the reform is critically important, especially for the poor. Outcomes of alternative reform scenarios range from an increase in poverty of 2 to 6 percentage points. A promising strategy combines subsidy reduction with direct transfers of 13,800 to 19,700 Yemeni rials annually to the poorest 30 percent of households and enhanced public investments. Investments should focus on the utilities, transport, trade, and construction sectors to integrate economic spaces and create the platform for a restructuring of agricultural, industrial, and service value chains, which should encourage private sector led and job creating growth in the medium term.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Access to Finance,Rural Poverty Reduction

Social accounting matrices and multiplier analysis: An introduction with exercises

This training guide introduces development practitioners, policy analysts, and students to social accounting matrices (SAMs) and their use in policy analysis. There are already a number of books that explain the System of National Accounts and SAM multipliers—some of these are recommended at the end of this training guide. However, most books tend to be quite technical and move quickly from an introduction to more complex applications. By contrast, this guidebook uses a series of hands-on exercises to gradually introduce SAMs and multiplier analysis. It therefore complements more theoretical SAM and multiplier literature and provides a first step for development practitioners and students wishing to understand the strengths and limitations of these economic tools. It is also useful for policy analysts and researchers embarking on more complex SAM-based methodologies. One such methodology is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, for which IFPRI has also developed a series of introductory exercises and a standard modeling framework.Social Accounting Matrices (SAM's), Policy analysis, complex applications, multiplier analysis, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model,

Petroleum subsidies in Yemen: Leveraging reform for development

Petroleum subsidy reform is increasingly seen as an opportunity for consolidating public finances and fostering sustainable economic development. Yemen, as the country with the lowest per capita income in the group of countries with a high level of energy subsidies, started to reduce subsidies in 2010 and is discussing further options for reform. The results of this paper support a comprehensive petroleum subsidy reform in Yemen. Economic growth is projected to accelerate between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points annually as a result of reform. Yet, the design of the reform is critically important, especially for the poor. Outcomes of alternative reform scenarios range from an increase in poverty of 2 to 6 percentage points. A promising strategy combines subsidy reduction with direct transfers of 13,800 to 19,700 Yemeni rials annually to the poorest 30 percent of households and enhanced public investments. Investments should focus on the utilities, transport, trade, and construction sectors to integrate economic spaces and create the platform for a restructuring of agricultural, industrial, and service value chains, which should encourage private sector led and job creating growth in the medium term.Development strategies, Growth, petroleum subsidy, Poverty, Reform,

Local impacts of a global crisis: Food price transmission and poverty impacts in Ghana

"This paper takes a local perspective on global food price shocks by analyzing food price transmission between regional markets in Ghana. It also assesses the impacts of differential local food price increases on various household groups. Taking the recent global food crisis as an example, we find that prices for domestic staples within all regional markets are highly correlated with prices for imported rice. However, price transmission between pairs of regional markets is limited; it is complete for local rice and maize only when more rigorous cointegration analysis is applied. Our findings also show the important role of seasonality in the determination of market integration and price transmission. The welfare effect for households as consumers appears relatively modest at the aggregate national level due to relatively diverse consumption patterns. However, the national average hides important regional differences, both between regions and within different income groups. We find that the poorest of the poor—particularly the urban poor—are the hardest hit by high food prices. The negative effect of the food crisis is particularly strong in the north of Ghana. Different consumption patterns, in which grains account for a larger share of the consumption basket in the north compared to the rest of the country, together with much lower initial per capita income levels, are the main explanations for this regional variation in the price effect. " from authors' abstractFood crisis, Price transmission, Poverty, Development strategies,

Managing future oil revenues in Ghana: An assessment of alternative allocation options

"Contemporary policy debates on the macroeconomics of resource booms often concentrate on the short-run Dutch disease effects of public expenditure, ignoring the possible long-term effects of alternative revenue-allocation options and the supply-side impact of royalty-financed public investments. In a simple model applied here, the government decides the level and timing of resource-rent spending. This model also considers productivity spillovers over time, which may exhibit a sector bias toward domestic production or exports. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model is used to simulate the effect of temporary oil revenue inflows to Ghana. The simulations show that beyond the short-run Dutch disease effects, the relationship between windfall profits, growth, and households' welfare is less straightforward than what the simple model of the “resource curse” suggests. The DCGE model results suggest that designing a rule that allocates oil revenues to both productivity-enhancing investments and an oil fund is crucial to achieving shared growth and macroeconomic stability." from authors' abstractOil fund, Public expenditures, Growth, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis, Development strategies,

Food as the basis for development and security: A strategy for Yemen

Yemen has been facing severe development challenges in recent years, but rapidly depleting oil and water resources combined with large population increases and a lack of job-creating growth are making a difficult situation even more complicated. In order to provide opportunities for Yemenis to escape the current situation of widespread poverty and food insecurity, the Government of the Republic of Yemen, under the leadership of the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, has developed a strategy to help all Yemeni people gain access to sufficient and nutritious foods in order to live active, productive, and healthy lives. The main objectives of the National Food Security Strategy, developed with the support of the International Food Policy Research Institute, are to (1) cut food insecurity by one-third by 2015, (2) reach moderate food security levels—meaning 90 percent of people have enough to eat year-round—by 2020, and (3) reduce child malnutrition by at least one percentage point per year. As a contribution to this process, the authors of this paper identify seven priority actions to help achieve these goals. 1. Leverage the fuel-subsidy reform process to promote food security. 2. Improve the business climate to foster pro-food-secure private investments in promising sectors. 3. Use qat reduction policies to enhance agricultural development. 4. Strengthen food security risk-management practices. 5. Implement the water-sector strategy decisively. 6. Target public investment to the food insecure more accurately and improve service provision, especially in rural areas. 7. Launch high-level awareness campaigns for family planning, healthy nutrition, and women's empowerment. The government, civil society groups, and international partners need to quickly, decisively, and jointly implement these seven actions in order to fulfill the strategic goals. The implementation process is likely to be most effective if conducted in a transparent and inclusive manner with effective follow-up and appropriate monitoring and evaluation mechanisms.food security, Poverty, Economic development,