Developing country growth collapse revisited: demographic influences and regional differences

This paper bridges two related, but up to now, unconnected literatures: economic growth stability and population-economic growth. The paper is different from previous population-economic growth analyses by focusing on instability of economic growth in developing countries. This study contributes to a previous paper on the developing country growth collapse by adding important demographic variables. The paper provides an explanation for “new” negative correlations of population and economic growth: because 1960s were a relatively smooth time for economic growth, youth dependency did not seem important; however, during turbulent 1970s and 1980s, countries with falling dependency burdens weathered economic shocks better.demographic transition, developing countries, economic growth, population growth

Breaks and Trends in OECD Countries’ Energy-GDP Ratios

This paper uses the econometrics of endogenous structural breaks to examine changes in energy intensity for OECD countries over 1960-2009. Nearly all OECD countries currently have significant negatively trending energy-GDP ratios; but for several countries those negative trends are recent, and two countries have recent significant positive trends. For several countries, energy intensity had a significant positive trend followed by a break and then a significant negative trend. Those break-dates, however, appear to have little to do with level of development (GDP per capita). Instead, among the likely causes of break timing are the volatile energy prices of the 1970s and early 1980s and the increased concern for the environment in the late 1960s and early 1970s. These findings have implications for future modeling of energy consumption as well as for the role of energy price policy in developed and developing countries.energy intensity, endogenous structural breaks, modeling environment and development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q43, O13,

Consumption-Driven Environmental Impact and Age Structure Change in OECD Countries

This paper examines two environmental impacts for which population has a substantial demonstrated influence: transport carbon emissions and residential electricity consumption. It takes as its starting point the STIRPAT framework and disaggregates population into four key age groups: 20-34, 35-49, 50-69, and 70 and older. Population age structure’s influence was significant and varied across cohorts, and its profile was different for two dependent variables. For transport, young adults (20-34) were intensive, whereas the other cohorts had negative coefficients. For residential electricity consumption, age structure had a U-shaped impact: the youngest and oldest had positive coefficients, while the middle cohorts had negative coefficients.demography, environment, FMOLS panel cointegration, GHG emissions projections, IPAT, STIRPAT

Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport

Demographic variables have tended to be ignored in many environment-development analyses. This paper examines how population changes (in aging, households, and urbanization/density) can help explain changes/differences in personal transport using both macro- and micro- level data. First, panel regressions are performed with IEA-OECD road sector energy use data (spanning 1960-2000) on spatial population measures, average household size, and age structure data. Then US household data is used to determine the extent compositional changes in the nature of households can explain changes in per capita driving. An Environmental Kuznets Curve for per capita road energy use was rejected—the coefficients on the GDP squared terms were insignificant and the implied turning points were well outside the sample range; instead, the relationship between wealth and road energy was found to be monotonic (log-linear). The ideas that more densely populated countries have less personal transport demands, the young drive more, and smaller households mean higher per capita driving were confirmed. The basic result from the household decompositions was that changes in demand were more important than compositional changes, however, during some periods the compositional change component was considerable. A few policy implications can be drawn from these analyses. First, the look at micro data implies that there is much potential for policy to affect transport behavior since the compositional component of change—more difficult for policy to alter—is smaller than the behavioral or demand component. However, the look at the macro data implies that spatial factors, like population density and urbanization—which also can be difficult to alter—are significant in influencing personal transport demand.OECD countries, energy consumption, environmental policy, household size, transport

The challenge of sustainability in a global system: documentation of a transdisciplinary, multi-country, dynamic simulation model

Sustainability models should consider aspects of the economy-environment-population nexus, be dynamic, and acknowledge the disparity among actors/countries. Lastly, sustainability models should not be programmed either to reject sustainability (e.g., an essential, nonrenewable input) or to affirm it (e.g., costless, endogenous technical change). We develop a simulation model to assess sustainable development on three levels: economic (by determining production, consumption, investment, direct foreign investment, technology transfer, and international trade), social (by calculating population change, migration flows, and welfare), and environmental (by calculating the difference between environmental pollution and upgrading expenditures). The model follows “representative” countries that differ in their initial endowments (i.e., natural resource endowment, physical and human capital, technology, and population), and thus in their development levels and prospects. In addition, we model free substitution in production, flexible economic structures, the ability to upgrade input factors via investment, and optimizing agents who possess a high degree of mobility and information, and who interact through and in response to market equlibiria.economic development, environment, population dynamics, simulation

Demographic dynamics and sustainability: insights from an integrated, multi-country simulation model

We develop a simulation model to assess sustainable development on three levels: economic (by determining production, consumption, investment, direct foreign investment, technology transfer, and international trade), social (by calculating population change, migration flows, and welfare), and environmental (by computing the difference between pollution and remediation). The model follows “representative” countries that differ in their initial endowments (i.e., natural resource endowment, physical and human capital, technology, and population), and thus in their development levels and prospects. In a world with movement of goods, people, and capital, free substitution in production, flexible economic structures, and the ability to upgrade input factors via investment, we find that, rather than the physical capacity of the earth being responsible for unsustainable paths, the initial disparities in circumstances among countries and the complex of internal and international human interrelationships can lead to a “social non sustainability” or continued divergence of outcomes. In our model history matters (the exogenous history implied by different starting conditions as well as the endogenous history that evolves over the simulations) in the ultimate prospects of countries and how they respond to institutions (e.g., free trade). Many of the most important country-specific starting points relate to population: human capital and population size, structure, and rates of change.simulation

What Are the Carbon Emissions Elasticities for Income and Population? Bridging STIRPAT and EKC via robust heterogeneous panel estimates

Knowledge of the carbon emissions elasticities of income and population is important both for climate change policy/negotiations and for generating projections of carbon emissions. However, previous estimations of these elasticities using the well-known STIRPAT framework have produced such wide-ranging estimates that they add little insight. This paper presents estimates of the STIRPAT model that address that shortcoming, as well as the issues of cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity, and the nonlinear transformation of a potentially integrated variable, i.e., income. Among the findings are that the carbon emissions elasticity of income is highly robust; and that the income elasticity for OECD countries is less than one, and likely less than the non-OECD country income elasticity, which is not significantly different from one. By contrast, the carbon emissions elasticity of population is not robust; however, that elasticity is likely not statistically significantly different from one for either OECD or non-OECD countries. Lastly, the heterogeneous estimators were exploited to reject a Carbon Kuznets Curve: while the country-specific income elasticities declined over observed average income-levels, the trend line had a slight U-shape

Urban Transport Pollution: Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve

An inverted-U relationship between GDP per capita and three urban transport-related emissions is tested (using data from 84 cities). Per capita urban transport-related emissions of CO, VHC, and NOx increase and then decline at observed income levels—a result driven by a similar inverted-U relationship between income and emissions technology (i.e., emissions per passenger-km). However, for urban transport energy consumed, the estimated turning point was well beyond the sample bounds. Passenger-km per capita and car ownership both rise, and public transport’s share of those passenger-km falls monotonically with income

How Linked are Energy and GDP: Reconsidering Energy-GDP Cointegration and Causality for Disaggregated OECD Country Data.

This study is different from previous energy-GDP cointegration/causality ones by examining whether total energy consumption by industry causes total industry GDP (or vice versa), and whether per capita GDP causes per capita road and residential sector energy use (or vice versa) for a number of OECD countries. The primary findings are that nearly all of the data series analyzed are not cointegrated, and that by far the most robust result is that of Granger-noncausality; thus, developed economies may be far more flexible in their relation with energy than is often understood, and the price mechanism may be a none-too-costly policy instrument to lower energy consumption

How Linked are Energy and GDP: Reconsidering Energy-GDP Cointegration and Causality for Disaggregated OECD Country Data.

This study is different from previous energy-GDP cointegration/causality ones by examining whether total energy consumption by industry causes total industry GDP (or vice versa), and whether per capita GDP causes per capita road and residential sector energy use (or vice versa) for a number of OECD countries. The primary findings are that nearly all of the data series analyzed are not cointegrated, and that by far the most robust result is that of Granger-noncausality; thus, developed economies may be far more flexible in their relation with energy than is often understood, and the price mechanism may be a none-too-costly policy instrument to lower energy consumption