What Determines the Structure of Corporate Debt Issues?

Publicly-traded debt securities differ on a number of dimensions, including quality, maturity, seniority, security, and convertibility. Finance research has provided a number of theories as to why firms should issue debt with different features; yet, there is very little empirical work testing these theories. We consider a sample of 14,867 debt issues in the U.S. between 1971 and 2004. Our goal is to test the implications of these theories, and, more generally, to establish a set of stylized facts regarding the circumstances under which firms issue different types of debt. Our results suggest that there are three main types of factors that affect the structure of debt issues: First, firm-specific factors such as leverage, growth opportunities and cash holdings are related with the convertibility, maturity and security structure of issued bonds. Second, economy-wide factors, in particular the state of the macroeconomy, affect the quality distribution of securities offered; in particular, during recessions, firms issue fewer poor quality bonds than in good times but similar numbers of high-quality bonds. Finally, controlling for firm characteristics and economy-wide factors, project specific factors appear to influence the types of securities that are issued. Consistent with commonly stated 'maturity-matching' arguments, long-term, nonconvertible bonds are more likely to be issued by firms investing in fixed assets, while convertible and short-term bonds are more likely to finance investment in R&D.

Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Raising

Economic theory, as well as commonly-stated views of practitioners, suggests that macroeconomic conditions can affect both the ability and manner in which firms raise external financing. Theory suggests that downturns should be associated with a shift toward less information-sensitive securities, as well as a ‘flight to quality,’ in which firms can issue high-rated securities but not low-rated ones. We evaluate these hypotheses on a large sample of publicly-traded debt issues, seasoned equity offers, and bank loans. We find that worse macroeconomic conditions lead firms to use less information-sensitive securities. In addition, poor market conditions affect the structure of securities offered, shifting them towards shorter maturities and more security. Furthermore, market conditions affect the quality of securities offered, with worsening conditions substantially lowering the number of low-rated debt issues. Overall, these findings suggest that macroeconomic conditions are important factors in firms’ capital raising decisions.Market downturns; Security choice; Maturity; Security

(WP 2012-01) Territorial Tax System Reform and Corporate Financial Policies

We examine the effect of a permanent change to a country income repatriation tax system on a set of corporate financial policies. In 2009 Japan and UK switched from a worldwide system to a territorial system for the taxation of earnings repatriated by their multinational firms. Due to the relatively high corporate tax rate in Japan and UK, the new system effectively reduced the tax liabilities of most multinational firms when repatriating earnings. We find that after the change Japanese and UK firms accumulate less cash, pay out larger amounts to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and invest less abroad. We do not find that the tax system change has significantly affected corporate domestic investments

Are Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Controlling the Stock Market? An Analysis of the 2016 Presidential Election\u27s Impact on Stock Market Volatility

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ran highly controversial campaigns in the 2016 Presidential Election, which then leaves us with the question of what impact is this having on the current economy? Prior analysis of political influence on the stock market tells us that isolating political impact on the stock market is nearly impossible. However, there are clearly defined 4-year cycles in stock prices that seem to correspond with election years. In this paper, I create my own index of stocks in the four major U.S. industries and measure both day-to-day and intraday volatility in stock prices across three comparable time periods: the year leading up to the 2016 election, all election years excluding the 2016, and all non-election years. I found that the 2016 election year was significantly less volatile than both prior election years as well as non-election years, suggesting that the 2015-2016 election year was not a closely contested race

Disagreement and security design

We study optimal security design when the issuer and market participants agree to disagree about the characteristics of the asset to be securitized. We show that pooling assets can be optimal because it mitigates the effects of disagreement between issuer and investors, whereas tranching a cash-flow stream allows the issuer to exploit disagreement between investors. Interestingly, pooling and tranching can be complements. The optimality of debt with or without call provisions can be derived as a special case. In a model with multiple financing rounds, convertible securities naturally emerge to finance highly skewed ventures

The Effect of Taxes on Multinational Debt Location

We provide new evidence that differences in international tax rates and tax regimes affect multinational firms\u27 debt location decisions. Our sample contains 8287 debt issues from 2437 firms headquartered in 23 different countries with debt-issuing subsidiaries in 59 countries. We analyze firms\u27 marginal decisions of where to issue debt to investigate the influence of a comprehensive set of tax-related effects, including differences in personal and corporate tax rates, tax credit and exemption systems, and bi-lateral cross-country withholding taxes on interest and dividend payments. Our results show that differences in personal and corporate tax rates, the presence of dividend imputation or relief tax systems, the tax treatment of repatriated profits, and inter-country withholding taxes on dividends and interest significantly influence the decision of where to locate debt and the proportion of debt located abroad. Our results are robust to firm and issue specific factors and to the effect of legal regimes, debt market development, and exchange rate risk

The Distribution of Firm Size and Aggregate Investment

We investigate empirically how the distributional dynamics of firm investment rates and firm size affect aggregate US investment during the period 1962-2006. We find that the cross-sectional covariation between firms’ investment rates and their relative size accounts on average for about half of aggregate investment rate. The negative sign of this covariance implies that a mean-preserving increase in the cross-sectional dispersion of investment rates and/or relative size reduces aggregate investment rate. We investigate the implications of firm-level conditional convergence in corporate investment rates on the dynamics of aggregate investment. We identify the cross-sectional variance of firm relative size as being particularly relevant to explain aggregate investment dynamics. With aggregate NIPA investment data, the cross-sectional variance of firm size fits the investment equation better than the traditional measure of Tobin’s Q and it drives out cash flow

Stock ownership and political behavior: evidence from demutualizations

A natural experiment in which customer-owned mutual companies converted to publicly listed firms created a plausibly exogenous shock to the stock market participation status of tens of thousands of people. We find the shock changed the way people vote in the affected areas, with a 10% increase in share-ownership rate being followed by a 1.3%–3.1% increase in right-of-center vote share. The institutional details and additional tests suggest that wealth, liquidity, and tax-related incentives cannot fully explain the results. A plausible explanation is that the associated increase in the salience of stock ownership causes a shift in voters’ attention