Effectiveness of single dose rifampicin in preventing leprosy in close contacts of patients with newly diagnosed leprosy

Objective To determine the effectiveness of chemoprophylaxis using a single dose of rifampicin to prevent leprosy in close contacts. Design Single centre, double blind, cluster randomised, placebo controlled trial. SettingLeprosy control programme in two districts of northwest Bangladesh with a population of more than four million. Participants28 092 close contacts of 1037 patients with newly diagnosed leprosy. 21 711 contacts fulfilled the study requirements. Interventions A single dose of rifampicin or placebo given to close contacts in the second month of starting the index patient’s treatment, with follow-up for four years. Main outcome measure Development of clinical leprosy. Results 18 869 of the 21 711 contacts (86.9%) were followed-up at four years. Ninety one of 9452 contacts in the placebo group and 59 of 9417 in the rifampicin group had developed leprosy. The overall reduction in incidence of leprosy using a single dose of rifampicin in the first two years was 57% (95% confidence interval 33% to 72%). The groups did not differ between two and four years. The overall number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a single case of leprosy among contacts was 297 (95% confidence interval 176 to 537). Differences were found between subgroups at two years, both in reduction of incidence and in NNT. ConclusionA single dose of rifampicin given to contacts of patients with newly diagnosed leprosy is effective at preventing the development of clinical leprosy at two years. The effect was maintained, but no difference was seen between the placebo and rifampicin groups beyond two years. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN61223447

Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions to Prevent Disability in Leprosy: A Systematic Review

Background: Prevention of disability (POD) is one of the key objectives of leprosy programmes. Recently, coverage and access have been identified as the priority issues in POD. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of POD interventions is highly relevant to understanding the barriers and opportunities to achieving universal coverage and access with limited resources. The purpose of this study was to systematically review the quality of existing cost-effectiveness evidence and discuss implications for future research and strategies to prevent disability in leprosy and other disabling conditions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We searched electronic databases (NHS EED, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and LILACS) and databases of ongoing trials (www.controlled-trials.com/mrct/, www.who.int/trialsearch). We checked reference lists and contacted experts for further relevant studies. We included studies that reported both cost and effectiveness outcomes of two or more alternative interventions to prevent disability in leprosy. We assessed the quality of the identified studies using a standard checklist for critical appraisal of economic evaluations of health care programmes. We found 66 citations to potentially relevant studies and three met our criteria. Two were randomised controlled trials (footwear, management of neuritis) and one was a generic model-based study (cost per DALY). Generally, the studies were small in size, reported inadequately all relevant costs, uncertainties in estimates, and issues of concern and were based on limited data sources. No cost-effectiveness data on self-care, which is a key strategy in POD, was found. Conclusion/Significance: Evidence for cost-effectiveness of POD interventions for leprosy is scarce. High quality research is needed to identify POD interventions that offer value for money where resources are very scarce, and to develop strategies aimed at available, affordable and sustainable quality POD services for leprosy. The findings are relevant for other chronically disabling conditions, such as lymphatic filariasis, Buruli ulcer and diabetes in developing countries

Predicting neuropathy and reactions in leprosy at diagnosis and before incident events. Results from the INFIR cohort study

BackgroundLeprosy is a disease of skin and peripheral nerves. The process of nerve injury occurs gradually through the course of the disease as well as acutely in association with reactions. The INFIR (ILEP Nerve Function Impairment and Reactions) Cohort was established to identify clinically relevant neurological and immunological predictors for nerve injury and reactions.Methodology/Principal FindingsThe study, in two centres in India, recruited 188 new, previously untreated patients with multi-bacillary leprosy who had no recent nerve damage. These patients underwent a series of novel blood tests and nerve function testing including motor and sensory nerve conduction, warm and cold detection thresholds, vibrometry, dynamometry, monofilament sensory testing and voluntary muscle testing at diagnosis and at monthly follow up for the first year and every second month for the second year. During the 2 year follow up a total of 74 incident events were detected. Sub-clinical changes to nerve function at diagnosis and during follow-up predicted these new nerve events. Serological assays at baseline and immediately before an event were not predictive; however, change in TNF alpha before an event was a statistically significant predictor of that event.Conclusions/SignificanceThese findings increase our understanding of the processes of nerve damage in leprosy showing that nerve function impairment is more widespread than previously appreciated. Any nerve involvement, including sub-clinical changes, is predictive of further nerve function impairment. These new factors could be used to identify patients at high risk of developing impairment and disability

Leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis with single-dose rifampicin

_Objective:_ Leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis with single-dose rifampicin (SDRPEP) has proven effective and feasible, and is recommended by WHO since 2018. This SDR-PEP toolkit was developed through the experience of the leprosy postexposure prophylaxis (LPEP) programme. It has been designed to facilitate and standardise the implementation of contact tracing and SDR-PEP administration in regions and countries that start the intervention. _Results:_ Four tools were developed, incorporating the current evidence for SDRPEP and the methods and learnings from the LPEP project in eight countries. (1) th

Consistent Multivariate Seasonal Adjustment for Gross Domestic Product and its Breakdown in Expenditures

Seasonally adjusted series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its breakdown in underlying categories or domains are generally not consistent with each other. Statistical differences between the total GDP and the sum of the underlying domains arise for two reasons. If series are expressed in constant prices, differences arise due to the process of chain linking These differences increase if, in addition, a univariate seasonal adjustment, with for instance X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is applied to each series separately. In this article, we propose to model the series for total GDP and its breakdown in underlying domains in a multivariate structural time series model, with the restriction that the sum over the different time series components for the domains are equal to the corresponding values for the total GDP. In the proposed procedure, this approach is applied as a pretreatment to remove outliers, level shifts, seasonal breaks and calendar effects, while obeying the aforementioned consistency restrictions. Subsequently, X-13ARIMA-SEATS is used for seasonal adjustment. This reduces inconsistencies remarkably. Remaining inconsistencies due to seasonal adjustment are removed with a benchmarking procedure