Robust estimation of stationary continuous-time ARMA models via indirect inference

In this paper we present a robust estimator for the parameters of a continuous-time ARMA(p,q) (CARMA(p,q)) process sampled equidistantly which is not necessarily Gaussian. Therefore, an indirect estimation procedure is used. It is an indirect estimation because we first estimate the parameters of the auxiliary AR(r) representation ($r\geq 2p-1$) of the sampled CARMA process using a generalized M- (GM-)estimator. Since the map which maps the parameters of the auxiliary AR(r) representation to the parameters of the CARMA process is not given explicitly, a separate simulation part is necessary where the parameters of the AR(r) representation are estimated from simulated CARMA processes. Then, the parameter which takes the minimum distance between the estimated AR parameters and the simulated AR parameters gives an estimator for the CARMA parameters. First, we show that under some standard assumptions the GM-estimator for the AR(r) parameters is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Next, we prove that the indirect estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed as well using in the simulation part the asymptotically normally distributed LS-estimator. The indirect estimator satisfies several important robustness properties such as weak resistance, $\pi_{d_n}$-robustness and it has a bounded influence functional. The practical applicability of our method is demonstrated through a simulation study with replacement outliers and compared to the non-robust quasi-maximum-likelihood estimation method

Crowdsourcing Linked Data on listening experiences through reuse and enhancement of library data

Research has approached the practice of musical reception in a multitude of ways, such as the analysis of professional critique, sales figures and psychological processes activated by the act of listening. Studies in the Humanities, on the other hand, have been hindered by the lack of structured evidence of actual experiences of listening as reported by the listeners themselves, a concern that was voiced since the early Web era. It was however assumed that such evidence existed, albeit in pure textual form, but could not be leveraged until it was digitised and aggregated. The Listening Experience Database (LED) responds to this research need by providing a centralised hub for evidence of listening in the literature. Not only does LED support search and reuse across nearly 10,000 records, but it also provides machine-readable structured data of the knowledge around the contexts of listening. To take advantage of the mass of formal knowledge that already exists on the Web concerning these contexts, the entire framework adopts Linked Data principles and technologies. This also allows LED to directly reuse open data from the British Library for the source documentation that is already published. Reused data are re-published as open data with enhancements obtained by expanding over the model of the original data, such as the partitioning of published books and collections into individual stand-alone documents. The database was populated through crowdsourcing and seamlessly incorporates data reuse from the very early data entry phases. As the sources of the evidence often contain vague, fragmentary of uncertain information, facilities were put in place to generate structured data out of such fuzziness. Alongside elaborating on these functionalities, this article provides insights into the most recent features of the latest instalment of the dataset and portal, such as the interlinking with the MusicBrainz database, the relaxation of geographical input constraints through text mining, and the plotting of key locations in an interactive geographical browser

Evaluation of a Commercial Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) for the Determination of the Neurotoxin BMAA in Surface Waters

The neurotoxin ß-N-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA) is suspected to play a role in Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Because BMAA seems to be produced by cyanobacteria, surface waters are screened for BMAA. However, reliable analysis of BMAA requires specialized and expensive equipment. In 2012, a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for determination of BMAA in surface waters was released. This kit could enable fast and relatively cheap screening of surface waters for BMAA. The objective of this study was to determine whether the BMAA ELISA kit was suitable for the determination of BMAA concentrations in surface waters. We hypothesised that the recovery of spiked samples was close to 100% and that the results of unspiked sample analysis were comparable between ELISA and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) analysis. However, we found that recovery was higher than 100% in most spiked samples, highest determined recovery was over 400%. Furthermore, the ELISA gave a positive signal for nearly each tested sample while no BMAA could be detected by LC-MS/MS. We therefore conclude that in its current state, the kit is not suitable for screening surface waters for BMAA

Transitions of care from child and adolescent mental health services to adult mental health services (TRACK Study) : a study of protocols in Greater London

Background: Although young people's transition from Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) to Adult Mental Health Services (AMHS) in England is a significant health issue for service users, commissioners and providers, there is little evidence available to guide service development. The TRACK study aims to identify factors which facilitate or impede effective transition from CAHMS to AMHS. This paper presents findings from a survey of transition protocols in Greater London. Methods: A questionnaire survey (Jan-April 2005) of Greater London CAMHS to identify transition protocols and collect data on team size, structure, transition protocols, population served and referral rates to AMHS. Identified transition protocols were subjected to content analysis. Results: Forty two of the 65 teams contacted (65%) responded to the survey. Teams varied in type (generic/targeted/in-patient), catchment area (locality-based, wider or national) and transition boundaries with AMHS. Estimated annual average number of cases considered suitable for transfer to AMHS, per CAMHS team (mean 12.3, range 0–70, SD 14.5, n = 37) was greater than the annual average number of cases actually accepted by AMHS (mean 8.3, range 0–50, SD 9.5, n = 33). In April 2005, there were 13 active and 2 draft protocols in Greater London. Protocols were largely similar in stated aims and policies, but differed in key procedural details, such as joint working between CAHMS and AMHS and whether protocols were shared at Trust or locality level. While the centrality of service users' involvement in the transition process was identified, no protocol specified how users should be prepared for transition. A major omission from protocols was procedures to ensure continuity of care for patients not accepted by AMHS. Conclusion: At least 13 transition protocols were in operation in Greater London in April 2005. Not all protocols meet all requirements set by government policy. Variation in protocol-sharing organisational units and transition process suggest that practice may vary. There is discontinuity of care provision for some patients who 'graduate' from CAMHS services but are not accepted by adult services

Limit theorems for von Mises statistics of a measure preserving transformation

For a measure preserving transformation $T$ of a probability space $(X,\mathcal F,\mu)$ we investigate almost sure and distributional convergence of random variables of the form $$x \to \frac{1}{C_n} \sum_{i_1<n,...,i_d<n} f(T^{i_1}x,...,T^{i_d}x),\, n=1,2,...,$$ where $f$ (called the \emph{kernel}) is a function from $X^d$ to $\R$ and $C_1, C_2,...$ are appropriate normalizing constants. We observe that the above random variables are well defined and belong to $L_r(\mu)$ provided that the kernel is chosen from the projective tensor product $$L_p(X_1,\mathcal F_1, \mu_1) \otimes_{\pi}...\otimes_{\pi} L_p(X_d,\mathcal F_d, \mu_d)\subset L_p(\mu^d)$$ with $p=d\,r,\, r\ \in [1, \infty).$ We establish a form of the individual ergodic theorem for such sequences. Next, we give a martingale approximation argument to derive a central limit theorem in the non-degenerate case (in the sense of the classical Hoeffding's decomposition). Furthermore, for $d=2$ and a wide class of canonical kernels $f$ we also show that the convergence holds in distribution towards a quadratic form $\sum_{m=1}^{\infty} \lambda_m\eta^2_m$ in independent standard Gaussian variables $\eta_1, \eta_2,...$. Our results on the distributional convergence use a $T$--\,invariant filtration as a prerequisite and are derived from uni- and multivariate martingale approximations

Toward Chirality‐Encoded Domain Wall Logic

Nonvolatile logic networks based on spintronic and nanomagnetic technologies have the potential to create high‐speed, ultralow power computational architectures. This article explores the feasibility of “chirality‐encoded domain wall logic,” a nanomagnetic logic architecture where data are encoded by the chiral structures of mobile domain walls in networks of ferromagnetic nanowires and processed by the chiral structures' interactions with geometric features of the networks. High‐resolution magnetic imaging is used to test two critical functionalities: the inversion of domain wall chirality at tailored artificial defect sites (logical NOT gates) and the chirality‐selective output of domain walls from 2‐in‐1‐out nanowire junctions (common operation to AND/NAND/OR/NOR gates). The measurements demonstrate both operations can be performed to a good degree of fidelity even in the presence of complex magnetization dynamics that would normally be expected to destroy chirality‐encoded information. Together, these results represent a strong indication of the feasibility of devices where chiral magnetization textures are used to directly carry, rather than merely delineate, data

Accurate reconstruction of insertion-deletion histories by statistical phylogenetics

The Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA) is a computational abstraction that represents a partial summary either of indel history, or of structural similarity. Taking the former view (indel history), it is possible to use formal automata theory to generalize the phylogenetic likelihood framework for finite substitution models (Dayhoff's probability matrices and Felsenstein's pruning algorithm) to arbitrary-length sequences. In this paper, we report results of a simulation-based benchmark of several methods for reconstruction of indel history. The methods tested include a relatively new algorithm for statistical marginalization of MSAs that sums over a stochastically-sampled ensemble of the most probable evolutionary histories. For mammalian evolutionary parameters on several different trees, the single most likely history sampled by our algorithm appears less biased than histories reconstructed by other MSA methods. The algorithm can also be used for alignment-free inference, where the MSA is explicitly summed out of the analysis. As an illustration of our method, we discuss reconstruction of the evolutionary histories of human protein-coding genes.Comment: 28 pages, 15 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1103.434

Repetitive arm functional tasks after stroke (RAFTAS): a pilot randomised controlled trial

Background Repetitive functional task practise (RFTP) is a promising treatment to improve upper limb recovery following stroke. We report the findings of a study to determine the feasibility of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial to evaluate this intervention. Methods A pilot randomised controlled trial was conducted. Patients with new reduced upper limb function were recruited within 14 days of acute stroke from three stroke units in North East England. Participants were randomised to receive a four week upper limb RFTP therapy programme consisting of goal setting, independent activity practise, and twice weekly therapy reviews in addition to usual post stroke rehabilitation, or usual post stroke rehabilitation. The recruitment rate; adherence to the RFTP therapy programme; usual post stroke rehabilitation received; attrition rate; data quality; success of outcome assessor blinding; adverse events; and the views of study participants and therapists about the intervention were recorded. Results Fifty five eligible patients were identified, 4-6% of patients screened at each site. Twenty four patients participated in the pilot study. Two of the three study sites met the recruitment target of 1-2 participants per month. The median number of face to face therapy sessions received was 6 [IQR 3-8]. The median number of daily repetitions of activities recorded was 80 [IQR 39-80]. Data about usual post stroke rehabilitation were available for 18/24 (75%). Outcome data were available for 22/24 (92%) at one month and 20/24 (83%) at three months. Outcome assessors were unblinded to participant group allocation for 11/22 (50%) at one month and 6/20 (30%) at three months. Four adverse events were considered serious as they resulted in hospitalisation. None were related to study treatment. Feedback from patients and local NHS therapists about the RFTP programme was mainly positive. Conclusions A multi-centre randomised controlled trial to evaluate an upper limb RFTP therapy programme provided early after stroke is feasible and acceptable to patients and therapists, but there are issues which needed to be addressed when designing a Phase III study. A Phase III study will need to monitor and report not only recruitment and attrition but also adherence to the intervention, usual post stroke rehabilitation received, and outcome assessor blinding

Dermatological remedies in the traditional pharmacopoeia of Vulture-Alto Bradano, inland southern Italy

Dermatological remedies make up at least one-third of the traditional pharmacopoeia in southern Italy. The identification of folk remedies for the skin is important both for the preservation of traditional medical knowledge and in the search for novel antimicrobial agents in the treatment of skin and soft tissue infection (SSTI). Our goal is to document traditional remedies from botanical, animal, mineral and industrial sources for the topical treatment of skin ailments. In addition to SSTI remedies for humans, we also discuss certain ethnoveterinary applications. Field research was conducted in ten communities in the Vulture-Alto Bradano area of the Basilicata province, southern Italy. We randomly sampled 112 interviewees, stratified by age and gender. After obtaining prior informed consent, we collected data through semi-structured interviews, participant-observation, and small focus groups techniques. Voucher specimens of all cited botanic species were deposited at FTG and HLUC herbaria located in the US and Italy. We report the preparation and topical application of 116 remedies derived from 38 plant species. Remedies are used to treat laceration, burn wound, wart, inflammation, rash, dental abscess, furuncle, dermatitis, and other conditions. The pharmacopoeia also includes 49 animal remedies derived from sources such as pigs, slugs, and humans. Ethnoveterinary medicine, which incorporates both animal and plant derived remedies, is addressed. We also examine the recent decline in knowledge regarding the dermatological pharmacopoeia. The traditional dermatological pharmacopoeia of Vulture-Alto Bradano is based on a dynamic folk medical construct of natural and spiritual illness and healing. Remedies are used to treat more than 45 skin and soft tissue conditions of both humans and animals. Of the total 165 remedies reported, 110 have never before been published in the mainland southern Italian ethnomedical literature

Outcome measurement in functional neurological disorder: a systematic review and recommendations.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify existing outcome measures for functional neurological disorder (FND), to inform the development of recommendations and to guide future research on FND outcomes. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted to identify existing FND-specific outcome measures and the most common measurement domains and measures in previous treatment studies. Searches of Embase, MEDLINE and PsycINFO were conducted between January 1965 and June 2019. The findings were discussed during two international meetings of the FND-Core Outcome Measures group. RESULTS: Five FND-specific measures were identified-three clinician-rated and two patient-rated-but their measurement properties have not been rigorously evaluated. No single measure was identified for use across the range of FND symptoms in adults. Across randomised controlled trials (k=40) and observational treatment studies (k=40), outcome measures most often assessed core FND symptom change. Other domains measured commonly were additional physical and psychological symptoms, life impact (ie, quality of life, disability and general functioning) and health economics/cost-utility (eg, healthcare resource use and quality-adjusted life years). CONCLUSIONS: There are few well-validated FND-specific outcome measures. Thus, at present, we recommend that existing outcome measures, known to be reliable, valid and responsive in FND or closely related populations, are used to capture key outcome domains. Increased consistency in outcome measurement will facilitate comparison of treatment effects across FND symptom types and treatment modalities. Future work needs to more rigorously validate outcome measures used in this population