25 research outputs found

    Adjustment and income distribution : a counterfactual analysis

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    This paper presents model simulations to quantify the effects of different stabilization packages in the distribution of income and wealth. The simulations suggest that a sharply contractionary stabilization package has a major adverse impact on the distribution of income. The shifts in distribution are likely to make the package less sustainable. The simulations support the view that stabilization packages which do not have specific components targeted to the poor will redistribute income in a way that, although transitory, is likely to permanently harm those below the poverty line - in terms of things like nutrition, health, and education. The sharp redistributive effects of stabilization packages that omit specific targeted policies to alleviate poverty are also likely to endanger the sustainability of the adjustment package.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Stabilization,Banks&Banking Reform,Inequality

    An EM algorithm for estimation in the Mixture Transition Distribution model

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    The Mixture Transition Distribution (MTD) model was introduced by Raftery to face the need for parsimony in the modeling of high-order Markov chains in discrete time. The particularity of this model comes from the fact that the effect of each lag upon the present is considered separately and additively, so that the number of parameters required is drastically reduced. However, the efficiency for the MTD parameter estimations proposed up to date still remains problematic on account of the large number of constraints on the parameters. In this paper, an iterative procedure, commonly known as Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, is developed cooperating with the principle of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to estimate the MTD parameters. Some applications of modeling MTD show the proposed EM algorithm is easier to be used than the algorithm developed by Berchtold. Moreover, the EM Estimations of parameters for high-order MTD models led on DNA sequences outperform the corresponding fully parametrized Markov chain in terms of Bayesian Information Criterion. A software implementation of our algorithm is available in the library seq++ at http://stat.genopole.cnrs.fr/seqppComment: 22 page

    Two Decades of Rising Inequality and Declining Poverty in the Lao People's Democratic Republic

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    Over the last 2 decades the distribution of private household expenditures has become more unequal in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, with the Gini coefficient rising from 0.311 to 0.364, even though absolute poverty incidence has halved. The increase in inequality was statistically significant and reduced the average rate of poverty reduction per year by about 28%, meaning the actual rate compared with the counterfactual rate that would have occurred if the mean real expenditures had increased at their observed levels but inequality had not changed. When the data are decomposed into rural and urban areas of residence or by province, or by the ethnicity of the household head, the increase in inequality within groups dominates any changes between groups; inequality has increased throughout the country. In contrast, access to publicly provided services has become more equal; disparities in participation rates between richer and poorer groups have diminished

    Konstruktion och undersökelse, exotism och närhet i Per Olof Sundmans böker om Lofoten

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    The Swedish writer Per Olof Sundman (1922-1992) wrote mostly short stories and novels, but also reportages. The paper deals with two reportages from the Lofoten islands, Människor vid hav (1966, “People by the sea”) and Lofoten, sommar (1973, “Lofoten, summer”) The choice of the Lofoten islands as a subject is related to a fascination Sundman felt towards northern and arctic regions, a fascination he also expressed in a number of fictional narratives and in the documentary novel Ingenjör Andrées luftfärd (1967. English title: The Flight of the Eagle) A question that arises almost immediately is whether that fascination affects the way the reporter works and how it affects it. How does Sundman look at the Lofoten? What does he take notice of and tell us about? What kind of image does he give? And how does he understand his own role, his function as an investigator in an environment which is neither his own nor his postulated readers’ usual environment? Another question deals with the relationship between the reportages from the Lofoten and the author’s other works. Are the reportages easy to recognize as Sundmanian texts, can Sundman’s “signature” be traced in them? It appears that “People by the sea” and “Lofoten, summer” are not merely informative texts. They also to a rather high degree suggest an atmosphere, using among other things inherited representations and judgements to that purpose. Those reportages turn out to be strongly literary texts, in the traditional meaning of the word
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