Terrorist Decision Making in the Context of Risk, Attack Planning, and Attack Commission

Terrorists from a wide array of ideological influences and organizational structures consider security and risk on a continuous and rational basis. The rationality of terrorism has been long noted of course but studies tended to focus on organizational reasoning behind the strategic turn toward violence. A more recent shift within the literature has examined rational behaviors that underpin the actual tactical commission of a terrorist offense. This article is interested in answering the following questions: What does the cost - benefit decision look like on a single operation? What does the planning process look like? How do terrorists choose between discrete targets? What emotions are felt during the planning and operational phases? What environmental cues are utilized in the decision-making process? Fortunately, much insight is available from the wider criminological literature where studies often provide offender-oriented accounts of the crime commission process. We hypothesize similar factors take place in terrorist decision making and search for evidence within a body of terrorist autobiographies.This work was funded by the Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats (ESRC Award: ES/N009614/1)

A Risk Analysis Framework of Lone-Actor Terrorism

In the rush to explain lone-actor terrorist radicalization and behavior, analyses highlighted a diversity of risk factors. This chapter organizes this knowledge into a general framework, the risk analysis framework (RAF). The framework incorporates theories that advance explanations about the role these factors play in producing the outcome of interest (e.g., radicalization). More specifically, the RAF draws on a well-developed general theory of crime causation known as situational action theory (SAT). The authors systematically articulate how the kinds of risk factors discussed in the prior literature review interact to produce one or the other. They differentiate between those factors which may act as indicators (needed for the design of detection and mitigation measures) of lone-actor extremist events and those which may be considered causes (needed for the design of prevention and disruption measures)

The multifinality of vulnerability indicators in lone-actor terrorism

To move beyond current aggregate and static conclusions regarding radicalisation and subsequent terrorist behaviour, empirical research should look to criminological models which are influenced by the life-course perspective. Current UK government policy designed to prevent radicalisation and terrorist engagement look to outputs from criminological perspectives to inform policy and practice. However, the guidance suffers from a lack of specificity as to the major concept of ‘vulnerability to radicalisation’, and what this incorporates. This investigation uses sequential analyses to add to our understanding of ‘vulnerability’ in the specific context of lone-actor terrorism. The statistical method bridges the gap between qualitative and quantitative approaches and provides a series of empirical outputs which visualise typical lone-actor terrorist trajectories through the discrete stages of radicalisation, attack planning and attack commission.This work was supported by European Commission 7th Framework Programme [Grant Number 608354 (PRIME) FP7-SEC-2013-1]

Behaviour tracking : using geospatial and behaviour sequence analysis to map crime

Crime is a complex phenomenon. To understand the commission of crime, researchers must map both the temporal and the spatial processes involved. The current research combines a temporal method of analysis, Behaviour Sequence Analysis, with geospatial mapping, to outline a new method of integrating temporal and spatial movements of criminals. To show how the new method can be applied, a burglary scenario was used, and the movements and behaviours of a criminal tracked around the property. Results showed that combining temporal and spatial analyses allows for a clearer account of the process of a crime scene. The current method has application to a large range of other crimes and terrorist movements, for instance between cities and movements within each city. Therefore, the current research provides the foundation framework for a novel method of spatio-temporal analyses of crime. © 2019, Springer Nature Limited