Conflict, Growth, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau

Conflicts and political instability have been serious constraints to growth in Guinea-Bissau. Of special concern was the civil war of 1998, which lasted 11 months and led to substantial loss of life as well as to a massive decrease in GDP per capita. Based on research on the economic cost of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa conducted by Lopez and Wodon (2005) and using a technique to identify outliers in time series and to correct the series for such outliers, this chapter estimates that GDP per capita today could have been more than 40 percent higher if there had been no conflict in 1998. In turn, one in three persons living in poverty today might not be poor had it not been for the conflict.Poverty; conflict; growth; Guinea-Bissau

Cashew Production, Taxation, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau

Agriculture is the engine of Guinea-Bissau’s economy. The sector relies mainly on cashew nuts, rice, and the subsistence production of food crops. Cashews represent 90 percent of the country’s exports and the principal source of income in rural areas. Unfortunately, cumbersome administrative arrangements, weak legal systems, and an absence of credit often lead to high transaction costs for cashew buyers and exporters, which help decrease the farm-gate price of the raw nuts. This chapter provides a review of the cashew sector in Guinea-Bissau, as well as estimates of the likely impact of changes in farm-gate prices and export taxes on poverty among cashew producers and in the country as a whole. The chapter also notes that over the last three decades, the production of rice has significantly decreased in favor of cashew farming. This situation represents a threat to food security. For the rural sector to ensure food security and create new jobs, policymakers would need to adopt a coherent agrarian development strategy in the context of the PRSP, which would aim at rehabilitating and encouraging rice production, and also promoting the processing of raw cashews into exportable cashew kernels, in order to generate more value added in the cashew sector.Cashew nuts; export tax; poverty; Guinea-Bissau

Conflict, Livelihoods, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau: An Overview

Conflict and political instability have considerably weakened Guinea-Bissau’s productive infrastructure during the past three decades. This situation has contributed to an increase in the degree of vulnerability of the population, especially in rural areas. As growth has been weak, poverty levels have remained high. This paper serves as an introduction and overview for a book that provides a collection of papers on conflict, livelihoods, and poverty in Guinea-Bissau based on both a nationally representative 2002 household survey and a small-scale survey with both quantitative and qualitative components implemented in 2004. After a brief review of political developments since independence, this overview summarizes the report’s main findings in the areas of conflict, growth and poverty, institutions and social networks, the characteristics of the poor and determinants of poverty, the population’s means of livelihood, and, finally, cashew production and taxation.Conflict; Livelihoods; Poverty; Gionea-Bissau

Conflict, Growth, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau

Conflicts and political instability have been serious constraints to growth in Guinea-Bissau. Of special concern was the civil war of 1998, which lasted 11 months and led to substantial loss of life as well as to a massive decrease in GDP per capita. Based on research on the economic cost of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa conducted by Lopez and Wodon (2005) and using a technique to identify outliers in time series and to correct the series for such outliers, this chapter estimates that GDP per capita today could have been more than 40 percent higher if there had been no conflict in 1998. In turn, one in three persons living in poverty today might not be poor had it not been for the conflict

Conflict, Growth, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau

Conflicts and political instability have been serious constraints to growth in Guinea-Bissau. Of special concern was the civil war of 1998, which lasted 11 months and led to substantial loss of life as well as to a massive decrease in GDP per capita. Based on research on the economic cost of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa conducted by Lopez and Wodon (2005) and using a technique to identify outliers in time series and to correct the series for such outliers, this chapter estimates that GDP per capita today could have been more than 40 percent higher if there had been no conflict in 1998. In turn, one in three persons living in poverty today might not be poor had it not been for the conflict

Cashew Production, Taxation, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau

Agriculture is the engine of Guinea-Bissau’s economy. The sector relies mainly on cashew nuts, rice, and the subsistence production of food crops. Cashews represent 90 percent of the country’s exports and the principal source of income in rural areas. Unfortunately, cumbersome administrative arrangements, weak legal systems, and an absence of credit often lead to high transaction costs for cashew buyers and exporters, which help decrease the farm-gate price of the raw nuts. This chapter provides a review of the cashew sector in Guinea-Bissau, as well as estimates of the likely impact of changes in farm-gate prices and export taxes on poverty among cashew producers and in the country as a whole. The chapter also notes that over the last three decades, the production of rice has significantly decreased in favor of cashew farming. This situation represents a threat to food security. For the rural sector to ensure food security and create new jobs, policymakers would need to adopt a coherent agrarian development strategy in the context of the PRSP, which would aim at rehabilitating and encouraging rice production, and also promoting the processing of raw cashews into exportable cashew kernels, in order to generate more value added in the cashew sector

Conflict, Livelihoods, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau: An Overview

Conflict and political instability have considerably weakened Guinea-Bissau’s productive infrastructure during the past three decades. This situation has contributed to an increase in the degree of vulnerability of the population, especially in rural areas. As growth has been weak, poverty levels have remained high. This paper serves as an introduction and overview for a book that provides a collection of papers on conflict, livelihoods, and poverty in Guinea-Bissau based on both a nationally representative 2002 household survey and a small-scale survey with both quantitative and qualitative components implemented in 2004. After a brief review of political developments since independence, this overview summarizes the report’s main findings in the areas of conflict, growth and poverty, institutions and social networks, the characteristics of the poor and determinants of poverty, the population’s means of livelihood, and, finally, cashew production and taxation