The Current Inflation: Malign Neglect?

macroeconomics, inflation

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy: Soft or Hard Landing?

Konjunktur, Vereinigte Staaten, Business cycle, United states

Formation of fiscal policy: the experience of the past twenty-five years - commentary

Fiscal policy ; Budget

Phase II: The U.S. Experiment with an Incomes Policy

macroeconomics, incomes policy,Phase II

Patterns of Corporate External Financing

macroeconomics, corporate external financing

The Stock Market and the Economy

macroeconomics, stock market, economy

Analyzing Inventory Investment

macroeconomics, inventory investment

Differential Mortality and Retirement Benefits in the Health and Retirement Study

This analysis uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine the sources of variation in mortality for individuals of varying socio-economic status (SES). The use of the HRS allows a distinction between education and a measure of career earnings as primary determinants of socio-economic status for men and women separately. We use those predictions of mortality to estimate the distribution of annual and lifetime OASDI benefits for different birth cohorts spanning the birth years from 1900 to 1950. We find differential rates of mortality have had substantial effects in altering the distribution lifetime benefits in favor of higher income individuals

America's Financial Crisis: The End of an Era

This paper reviews research on the origins of the financial crisis of 2008–2009, highlights the key events that triggered a financial panic in September 2008, and summarizes the extraordinary policy actions the United States (US) has taken to ameliorate the crisis. We discuss the proximate causes of the crisis, including the characteristics and growth of the subprime mortgage market, and the distorted incentives and flawed regulatory structure surrounding the secondary market for mortgage-backed securities. We also assess the role of more fundamental macroeconomic determinants of the bubble in US asset prices, most notably low global interest rates attributed to either loose monetary policy or excess global saving. We find that while low global interest rates may have contributed to the boom in housing markets and speculative excesses, the poorly understood innovations and microeconomic distortions of the financial system played a more fundamental role. Finally, the otherwise extraordinary policy response of the US government has been limited by the lack of an effective restructuring of the financial system, and a recovery marked by higher private saving, weak domestic investment, and a large public deficit appears to be unsustainable. Ultimately, the US economy will need to shift about 3% of GDP from domestic consumption to the export sector. This will pose some serious challenges to countries that have come to rely on exports to the US market.global financial crisis; financial panic; american policy actions