Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction

The reduction in visibility that accompanies fog events presents a hazard to human safety and navigation. However, accurate fog prediction remains elusive, with numerical methods often unable to capture the conditions of fog formation, and observational methods having high false-alarm rates in order to obtain high hit rates of prediction. In this work, 5 years of observations from the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research are used to further investigate how false alarms may be reduced using the statistical method for diagnosing radiation-fog events from observations developed by Menut et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 150:277–297, 2014). The method is assessed for forecast lead times of 1–6 h and implementing four optimization schemes to tune the prediction for different needs, compromising between confidence and risk. Prediction scores improve significantly with decreased lead time, with the possibility of achieving a hit rate of over 90% and a false-alarm rate of just 13%. In total, a further 31 combinations of predictive variables beyond the original combination are explored (including mostly, e.g., variables related to moisture and static stability of the boundary layer). Little change to the prediction scores indicates any appropriate combination of variables that measure saturation, turbulence, and near-surface cooling can be used. The remaining false-alarm periods are manually assessed, identifying the lack of spatio–temporal information (such as the temporal evolution of the local conditions and the advective history of the airmass) as the ultimate limiting factor in the methodology’s predictive capabilities. Future observational studies are recommended that investigate the near-surface evolution of fog and the role of non-local heterogeneity on fog formation.Atmospheric Remote Sensin

A Three-Dimensional Array for the Study of Infrasound Propagation Through the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) operates a three-dimensional microbarometer array at the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research observatory. The array consists of five microbarometers on a meteorological tower up to an altitude of 200 m. Ten ground-based microbarometers surround the tower with an array aperture of 800 m. This unique setup allows for the study of infrasound propagation in three dimensions. The added value of the vertical dimension is the sensitivity to wind and temperature in the atmospheric boundary layer over multiple altitudes. In this study, we analyze infrasound generated by an accidental chemical explosion at the Moerdijk petrochemical plant on 3 June 2014. The recordings of the tower microbarometers show two sequential arrivals, whereas the recordings on the ground show one wavefront. This arrival structure is interpreted to be the upgoing and downgoing wavefronts. The observations are compared with propagation modeling results using global-scale and mesoscale atmospheric models. Independent temperature and wind measurements, which are available at the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research, are used for comparison with model output. The modeling results explain the signal arrival times; however, the tower wavefront arrivals are not explained. This study is important for understanding the influence of the atmospheric boundary layer on infrasound detections and propagation.Applied Geophysics and Petrophysic

Missed Fog?: On the Potential of Obtaining Observations at Increased Resolution During Shallow Fog Events

Conventional in situ observations of meteorological variables are restricted to a limited number of levels near the surface, with the lowest observation often made around 1-m height. This can result in missed observations of both shallow fog, and the initial growth stage of thicker fog layers. At the same time, numerical experiments have demonstrated the need for high vertical grid resolution in the near-surface layer to accurately simulate the onset of fog; this requires correspondingly high-resolution observational data for validation. A two-week field campaign was conducted in November 2017 at the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) in the Netherlands. The aim was to observe the growth of shallow fog layers and assess the possibility of obtaining very high-resolution observations near the surface during fog events. Temperature and relative humidity were measured at centimetre resolution in the lowest 7 m using distributed temperature sensing. Further, a novel approach was employed to estimate visibility in the lowest 2.5 m using a camera and an extended light source. These observations were supplemented by the existing conventional sensors at the site, including those along a 200-m tall tower. Comparison between the increased-resolution observations and their conventional counterparts show the errors to be small, giving confidence in the reliability of the techniques. The increased resolution of the observations subsequently allows for detailed investigations of fog growth and evolution. This includes the observation of large temperature inversions in the lowest metre (up to 5 K) and corresponding regions of (super)saturation where the fog formed. Throughout the two-week observation period, fog was observed twice at the conventional sensor height of 2.0 m. Two additional low-visibility events were observed in the lowest 0–0.5 m using the camera-based observations, but were missed by the conventional sensors. The camera observations also showed the growth of shallow radiation fog, forming in the lowest 0.5 m as early as two hours before it was observed at the conventional height of 2 m.Atmospheric Remote SensingWater Resource

Missed Fog: Understanding the Growth of Fog from the Ground Up

Conventional in situ observations of visibility and other meteorological variables are restricted to a limited number of heights near the surface, with the lowest observation often made above 1 m. This can result in missed observations of shallow fog as well as the initial growth stage of thicker fog layers. At the same time, numerical experiments have demonstrated the need for high vertical grid resolution in the near-surface layer to accurately simulate the onset of fog; this requires correspondingly high-resolution observational data for validation. In November 2017, a field experiment was conducted at the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) in the Netherlands with the aim of observing the growth of shallow fog from the ground up, assessing the applicability of emerging high-resolution methods for observing shallow fog. Two innovative, high-resolution techniques were employed: distributed temperature sensing (DTS), providing temperature and relative humidity observations at vertical resolutions as fine as 1 cm, and a novel camera-LED method to observe near-surface visibility below the conventional sensor height of 2.0 m. These observations were supplemented by the existing observations at the site, including those along a 200-m tall tower. Comparison between the high-resolution observations and their conventional counterparts shows the errors to be small, giving confidence to the reliability of the techniques. The high resolution of the observations subse- quently allows for detailed investigations of near surface processes. The growth of fog layers from the ground up was observed with very strong temperature inversions in the lowest metre (up to 5 K), and corresponding region of (super)saturation where the fog formed and grew. Throughout the two-week observation period, fog was observed twice at the conventional sensor height of 2.0 m, but up to four times in the lowest 0-0.5 m using the camera estimates, with the shallow fog also forming up to two hours before it was observed by the conventional sensor. The observations are supplemented by high-resolution numerical simulations of the experimental period, highlighting the sensitivity of the fog layer to surface properties and ambient conditions, providing greater insight into what drives the growth of a very shallow fog layer (i.e. < 1 m) into a deeper, and therefore more dangerous, layer.Atmospheric Remote SensingWater Resource

Local characteristics of the nocturnal boundary layer in response to external pressure forcing

Geostrophic wind speed data, derived from pressure observations, are used in combination with tower measurements to investigate the nocturnal stable boundary layer at Cabauw, the Netherlands. Since the geostrophic wind speed is not directly influenced by local nocturnal stability, it may be regarded as an external forcing parameter of the nocturnal stable boundary layer. This is in contrast to local parameters such as in situ wind speed, the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter (z/L), or the local Richardson number. To characterize the stable boundary layer, ensemble averages of clear-sky nights with similar geostrophic wind speeds are formed. In this manner, the mean dynamical behavior of near-surface turbulent characteristics and composite profiles of wind and temperature are systematically investigated. The classification is found to result in a gradual ordering of the diagnosed variables in terms of the geostrophic wind speed. In an ensemble sense the transition from the weakly stable to very stable boundary layer is more gradual than expected. Interestingly, for very weak geostrophic winds, turbulent activity is found to be negligibly small while the resulting boundary cooling stays finite. Realistic numerical simulations for those cases should therefore have a comprehensive description of other thermodynamic processes such as soil heat conduction and radiative transfer.Atmospheric Remote Sensin

Fifty Years of Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Research at Cabauw Serving Weather, Air Quality and Climate

An overview is given of 50-year Cabauw observations and research on the structure and dynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer. It is shown that over time this research site with its 200-m meteorological tower has grown into an atmospheric observatory with a comprehensive observational program encompassing almost all aspects of the atmospheric column including its boundary conditions. This is accomplished by the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) a consortium of research institutes. CESAR plays an important role in the educational programs of the CESAR universities. The current boundary-layer observational program is described in detail, and other parts of the CESAR observational program discussed more briefly. Due to an open data policy the CESAR datasets are used by researchers all over the world. Examples are given of the use of the long time series for model evaluation, satellite validation, and process studies. The role of tall towers is discussed in relation to the development of more and better ground-based remote sensing techniques. CESAR is now incorporated into the Ruisdael observatory, the large-scale atmospheric research infrastructure in the Netherlands. With Ruisdael the embedding of the Dutch atmospheric community in national policy landscape, and in the European atmospheric research infrastructures is assured for the coming decade.Atmospheric Remote Sensin

Land Cover Control on the Drivers of Evaporation and Sensible Heat Fluxes: An Observation-Based Synthesis for the Netherlands

Land cover controls the land-atmosphere exchange of water and energy through the partitioning of solar energy into latent and sensible heat. Observations over all land cover types at the regional scale are required to study these turbulent flux dynamics over a landscape. Here, we aim to study how the control of daily and midday latent and sensible heat fluxes over different land cover types is distributed along three axes: energy availability, water availability and exchange efficiency. To this end, observations from 19 eddy covariance flux tower sites in the Netherlands, covering six different land cover types located within the same climatic zone, were used in a regression analysis to explain the observed dynamics and find the principle drivers. The resulting relative position of these sites along the three axes suggests that land cover partly explains the variance of daily and midday turbulent fluxes. We found that evaporation dynamics from grassland, peatland swamp and cropland sites could mostly be explained by energy availability. Forest evaporation can mainly be explained by water availability, urban evaporation by water availability and exchange efficiency, and open water evaporation can almost entirely be explained by exchange efficiency. We found that the sensible heat flux is less sensitive to land cover type. This demonstrates that the land-atmosphere interface plays an active role in the shedding of sensible heat. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of evaporation over different land cover types and may help to optimize, and potentially simplify, models to predict evaporation.Water Resource

Regime transitions in near-surface temperature inversions: A conceptual model

A conceptual model is used in combination with observational analysis to understand regime transitions of near-surface temperature inversions at night as well as in Arctic conditions. The model combines a surface energy budget with a bulk parameterization for turbulent heat transport. Energy fluxes or feedbacks due to soil and radiative heat transfer are accounted for by a "lumped parameter closure," which represents the "coupling strength" of the system. Observations from Cabauw, Netherlands, and Dome C, Antarctica, are analyzed. As expected, inversions are weak for strong winds, whereas large inversions are found under weak-wind conditions. However, a sharp transition is found between those regimes, as it occurs within a narrow wind range. This results in a typical S-shaped dependency. The conceptual model explains why this characteristic must be a robust feature. Differences between the Cabauw and Dome C cases are explained from differences in coupling strength (being weaker in the Antarctic). For comparison, a realistic column model is run. As findings are similar to the simple model and the observational analysis, it suggests generality of the results. Theoretical analysis reveals that, in the transition zone near the critical wind speed, the response time of the system to perturbations becomes large. As resilience to perturbations becomes weaker, it may explain why, within this wind regime, an increase of scatter is found. Finally, the so-called heat flux duality paradox is analyzed. It is explained why numerical simulations with prescribed surface fluxes show a dynamical response different from more realistic surface-coupled systems.Atmospheric Remote SensingAtmospheric Physic