Propagating uncertainty to estimates of above-ground biomass for Kenyan mangroves: a scaling procedure from tree to landscape level

Mangroves are globally important carbon stores and as such have potential for inclusion in future forest-based climate change mitigation strategies such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+). Participation in REDD+ will require developing countries to produce robust estimates of forest above-ground biomass (AGB) accompanied by an appropriate measure of uncertainty. Final estimates of AGB should account for known sources of uncertainty (measurement and predictive) particularly when estimating AGB at large spatial scales. In this study, mixed-effects models were used to account for variability in the allometric relationship of Kenyan mangroves due to species and site effects. A generic biomass equation for Kenyan mangroves was produced in addition to a set of species-site specific equations. The generic equation has potential for broad application as it can be used to predict the AGB of new trees where there is no pre-existing knowledge of the specific species-site allometric relationship: the most commonly encountered scenario in practical biomass studies. Predictions of AGB using the mixed-effects model showed good correspondence with the original observed values of AGB although displayed a poorer fit at higher AGB values, suggesting caution in extrapolation. A strong relationship was found between the observed and predicted values of AGB using an independent validation dataset from the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique (R2 = 0.96, p = < 0.001). The simulation based approach to uncertainty propagation employed in the current study produced estimates of AGB at different spatial scales (tree – landscape level) accompanied by a realistic measure of the total uncertainty. Estimates of mangrove AGB in Kenya are presented at the plot, regional and landscape level accompanied by 95% prediction intervals. The 95% prediction intervals for landscape level estimates of total AGB stocks suggest that between 5.4 and 7.2 megatonnes of AGB is currently held in Kenyan mangrove forests

Comparison of Three Solid Phase Materials for the Extraction of Carboxylic Acids from River Water Followed by 2D GC × GC-TOFMS Determination

The extraction and determination of aliphatic and aromatic carboxylic acids as well as their influence on the aromaticity and molecularity relationship of natural organic matter (NOM) in water are reported in this study. Three solid phase extraction (SPE) sorbents were used and their extraction efficiencies evaluated after chromatographic determinations (using gas chromatography with a time of flight mass spectrometer (GC × GC-TOFMS) and liquid chromatography with organic carbon detector (LC-OCD)). More than 42 carboxylic acids were identified in raw water from the Vaal River, which feeds the Lethabo Power Generation Station, South Africa, with cooling water. The aromatic carboxylic acid efficiency (28%) was achieved by using Strata™ X SPE while the highest aliphatic carboxylic acid efficiency (92.08%) was achieved by silica SPE. The hydrophobic nature of NOM in water depends on the nature of organic compounds in water, whether aromatic or aliphatic. The LC-OCD was used to assess the hydrophobicity levels of NOM as a function of these carboxylic acids in cooling water. The LC-OCD results showed that the aromatic nature of NOM in SPE filtered water followed the order Silica>Strata X>C-18. From the results, the hydrophobicity degree of the samples depended on the type and number of carboxylic acids that were removed by the SPE cartridges

Mangroves in peril: unprecedented degradation rates of peri-urban mangroves in Kenya

Marine ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented degradation rates higher than any other ecosystem on the planet, which in some instances are up to 4 times those of rainforests. Mangrove ecosystems have especially been impacted by compounded anthropogenic pressures leading to significant cover reductions of between 35 and 50% (equivalent to 1–2% loss pa) for the last half century. The main objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that peri-urban mangroves suffering from compounded and intense pressures may be experiencing higher degradation rates than the global mean (and/or national mean for Kenya) using Mombasa mangroves (comprising Tudor and Mwache creeks) as a case study. Stratified sampling was used to sample along 22 and 10 belt transects in Mwache and Tudor respectively, set to capture stand heterogeneity in terms of species composition and structure in addition to perceived human pressure gradients using proximity to human habitations as a proxy. We acquired SPOT (HRV/ HRVIR/ HRS) images of April 1994, May 2000 and January 2009 and a vector mangrove map of 1992 at a scale of 1:50 000 for cover change and species composition analysis. Results from image classification of the 2009 image had 80.23% overall accuracy and Cohen's kappa of 0.77, thus proving satisfactory for use in this context. Structural data indicate that complexity index (CI) which captures stand structural development was higher in Mwache at 1.80 compared to Tudor at 1.71. From cover change data, Tudor lost 86.9% of the forest between 1992 and 2009, compared to Mwache at 45.4%, representing very high hitherto undocumented degradation rates of 5.1 and 2.7% pa, respectively. These unprecedentedly high degradation rates, which far exceed not only the national mean (for Kenya of 0.7% pa) but the global mean as well, strongly suggest that these mangroves are highly threatened due to compounded pressures. Strengthening of governance regimes through enforcement and compliance to halt illegal wood extraction, improvement of land-use practices upstream to reduce soil erosion, restoration in areas where natural regeneration has been impaired, provision of alternative energy sources/building materials and a complete moratorium on wood extraction especially in Tudor Creek to allow recovery are some of the suggested management interventions

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p&lt;0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p&lt;0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

Epidemiologic evidence for the development of serovar-specific immunity after gonococcal infection.

We tested the hypothesis that strain-specific immunity occurs after gonococcal infection in a longitudinal study of 227 prostitutes resident in one small community who experienced frequent gonococcal infections. Women were examined and cultured for Neisseria gonorrhoeae at 2-wk intervals. Gonococcal isolates were typed according to protein 1 serovar, auxotype, and beta-lactamase plasmid type, and classified as to serovar and strain. The hypothesis was tested by comparing the predictions of the hypothesis with the observations of the study. Over the 14-mo period of the study, major changes in the prevalence of specific serovars were observed in the gonococcal population infecting these women. Women with HIV infection experienced a higher rate of gonococcal infection (0.56 +/- 0.03 vs. 0.46 +/- 0.04, P less than 0.05, t test) compared with HIV-negative women and were more likely to experience multiple infections with the same strain. The duration of prostitution was inversely related to the frequency of gonococcal infection. Women experiencing an infection with a specific gonococcal serovar were at a 2- to 10-fold reduced risk of reinfection with the same serovar, except for the 1B-1 serovar. The results of the study were consistent with all four predictions of the hypothesis. Infection with a specific gonococcal serovar results in specific but incomplete protection against subsequent infection with the homologous serovar. The mechanism of this protection remains to be determined

Vegetative phenology of Rhizophora mucronata Lamk. Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh. and Sonneratia alba Sm. in natural and reforested stands at Gazi Bay, Kenya

info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublishe

Vegetative phenology of Rhizophora mucronata Lamk. Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh. and Sonneratia alba Sm. in natural and reforested stands at Gazi Bay, Kenya

info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublishe