Transport facilities and residential choice behavior : a model of multi-person choice processes

The aim of this paper is to gain further insight into the way in which residential location choice behavior is related to the existence of public transport facilities and to distance to the workplace. More specifically, the objectives of this paper are twofold. The first objective is to gain more insight into the influence of the characteristics of residential locations on residential location choice behavior. The selected characteristics are related to three aspects: (a) the residence itself (dwelling type, costs, type of neighborhood); (b) the transportation facilities in the residential neighborhood (frequency of bus services, availability of railway station, accessibility to main road system); and (c) the travel time from the residential location to the workplace (car, public transportation, and bike). The second objective is to test a model of joint (multi-person) decision making behavior. The results of this research indicate that the preference for a particular residential location is highly dependent on the characteristics of the dwelling and its environment, and to a lesser extent on the travel time to the workplace. The characteristics pertaining to transportation facilities seem to be less important. These results imply that transportation policy is not necessarily an effective instrument to influence residential choice behavior and the associated mobility. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 31st European Congress of the RSAI, Lisbon, Portugal, August 1991

A decision support and expert system for retail planning

An important issue in Dutch retail planning practice is prediction of the likely impacts of new retail developments on consumer demand and assessment of the feasibility of new projects. In practice, a planning team has to decide which retail plan out of a number of alternative plans has to be implemented. A decision support system for retail planning can facilitate this decision. The decision support system we are proposing consists of three modules. The first module is used to manage the required data. The second module is used to model consumer choice behaviour. This module also contains the program GIANT, which can be considered as an expert system to assist the analyst in constructing and analysing conjoint-based simulator systems. The third module summarizes and evaluates the predicted impacts of the alternative retail plans

Consumer Choice of Modularized Products: A Conjoint Choice Experiment Approach

Recent increases in flexibility and automation in the production of goods and services allow a growing number of suppliers to offer their products in flexible sets of modules from which consumers can create their own individualized packages. This paper addresses the question how consumer choices of such modularized products can be modeled and measured by applying conjoint choice experiments. We analyze conceptually the structure of individual consumers’ choices of modularized products and the role of the error component in random utility models of these choices. We propose a simple experimental conjoint choice design strategy that can support estimation of this type of models. An empirical illustration in the area of travel package choice is discussed.Marketing;Consumer choice models;Conjoint experiments;Heteroscedastic logit;Mass-customization

Assessing the impact of peripheral mega retail centres on traditional urban shopping centres

Recently, retail planning policy in the Netherlands has become much more liberal, probably stimulating the development of new (types of) out-of-town retail centres. This raises the question whether these new out-of-town retail centres will threaten existing retail centres. The purpose of this paper is to present a method to assess the likely effects of new peripheral retail centres on existing retail structures. The method is based on the stated choice approach. Different realizations of an imaginary peripheral mega shopping centre are presented to respondents. The respondents have to estimate the number of times each existing shopping centre and the new imaginary peripheral centre would have been visited if the imaginary centre had existed. The following variables were used to define the imaginary peripheral retail centre: supply of six branches, distance from home to the peripheral centre, price-product quality ratio, design and ambiance, and entertainment. The results show that depending on its characteristics, a peripheral mega centre can have severe impact on existing shopping centres

Competing risk hazard model of activity choice, timing, sequencing, and duration

Recently hazard models have become increasingly popular in transportation research for modeling duration processes of various kinds. The application of hazard models is extended to the field of activity scheduling to account for the continuous nature of the decision-making process underlying activity performance. A competing risk hazard model of the accelerated time type, which describes simultaneously the duration of the present activity and the choice of the next activity, is presented. Both a generic and an activity-specific version of the model were estimated. The covariates used in the model represent factors that affect activity scheduling such as time of day, opening hours, travel times, priorities, and time budgets. An interactive computerized data collection procedure was used to obtain specific data needed to calculate the covariates. The estimated models performed satisfactorily, suggesting that competing risk models are a useful tool for describing activity scheduling as a continuous decision-making process. This is an important finding, especially because influencing the timing of activities and trips is a subject of increasing interest to policy makers

Modelling locational decision making of firms using multidimensional fuzzy decision tables : an illustration

No abstract

Simulation model of activity scheduling behavior

The simulation model of activity scheduling behavior presented is influenced by recent theories of activity scheduling and production system modeling. The basic assumption underlying the model is that activity scheduling is a sequential process in which consecutive steps lead to the final schedule. Every step in this respect is modeled as a choice of an action to perform on a preliminary schedule. The behavior of the model was tested using simulations in different hypothetical spatio-temporal settings. The simulations were conducted repeatedly, varying the values of the parameters of the model systematically. In general, the simulations resulted in realistic schedules. The proposed approach therefore offers possibilities to model activity scheduling realistically. The next step, however, should be to develop calibration methods so that parameter values can be derived from observed behavior. Interactive simulations may be a promising technique in this respect

Conditional choice modelling of time allocation among spouses in transport settings : theory and empirical findings

As part of a wider rule-based model of activity behaviour, this paper explores the possibility to build a suite of linked conditional choice models to predict the amount of time spouses in a household spend on a set of activities together and alone. First, a choice model is used to predict the probability and hence the amount of time the spouses spend together and alone. Conditional on the outcome of this choice model, a second model predicts the amount of time that is spent by each spouse separately on a set of activities, as a function of socio-demographics, car availability and work status. The model is estimated using a small sample in Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht and Zwijndrecht in the Netherlands. The results indicate the model to have face validity. Rho-square values are also high