The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

The need to understand the factors that influence the behavior of commodity prices has taken on a special urgency in recent years, as nonoil real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s. Since their short-lived recovery in 1984, real non-oil commodity prices have fallen by about 45 percent, translating into a sharp deterioration in the terms of trade for most commodity-dependent exporters. As Chart 1 illustrates, in 1992 the price of non-oil commodities relative to that of manufactures reached its lowest level in over 90 years.1 The longterm behavior of real commodity prices would thus appear to lend some support to the well-known Pre bisch-Singer hypothesis.2 This pattern in commodity prices has important practical implications for policymakers. For example, the presence of a negative trend in commodity prices implies continuously worsening terms of trade for many commodity-dependent countries, and further that efforts to stabilize the incomes of producers for an extended period of time may not be financially sustainable.

The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

The need to understand the factors that influence the behavior of commodity prices has taken on a special urgency in recent years, as nonoil real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s. Since their short-lived recovery in 1984, real non-oil commodity prices have fallen by about 45 percent, translating into a sharp deterioration in the terms of trade for most commodity-dependent exporters. As Chart 1 illustrates, in 1992 the price of non-oil commodities relative to that of manufactures reached its lowest level in over 90 years.1 The longterm behavior of real commodity prices would thus appear to lend some support to the well-known Pre bisch-Singer hypothesis.2 This pattern in commodity prices has important practical implications for policymakers. For example, the presence of a negative trend in commodity prices implies continuously worsening terms of trade for many commodity-dependent countries, and further that efforts to stabilize the incomes of producers for an extended period of time may not be financially sustainable

The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

The need to understand the factors that influence the behavior of commodity prices has taken on a special urgency in recent years, as nonoil real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s. Since their short-lived recovery in 1984, real non-oil commodity prices have fallen by about 45 percent, translating into a sharp deterioration in the terms of trade for most commodity-dependent exporters. As Chart 1 illustrates, in 1992 the price of non-oil commodities relative to that of manufactures reached its lowest level in over 90 years.1 The longterm behavior of real commodity prices would thus appear to lend some support to the well-known Pre bisch-Singer hypothesis.2 This pattern in commodity prices has important practical implications for policymakers. For example, the presence of a negative trend in commodity prices implies continuously worsening terms of trade for many commodity-dependent countries, and further that efforts to stabilize the incomes of producers for an extended period of time may not be financially sustainable

Crash risk in currency markets

Abstract Since the Fall of 2008, out-of-the money puts on high interest rate currencies have become significantly more expensive than out-of-the-money calls, suggesting a large crash risk of those currencies. To evaluate crash risk precisely, we propose a parsimonious structural model that includes both Gaussian and disaster risks and can be estimated even in samples that do not contain disasters. Estimating the model for the 1996 to 2014 sample period using monthly exchange rate spot, forward, and option data, we obtain a real-time index of the compensation for global disaster risk exposure. We find that disaster risk accounts for more than a third of the carry trade risk premium in advanced countries over the period examined. The measure of disaster risk that we uncover in currencies proves to be an important factor in the cross-sectional and time-series variation of exchange rates, interest rates, and equity tail risk

Why Does China Invest So Much?

China has had a remarkably high ratio of investment to output ever since economic reform began in 1978, surpassing almost all other economies. This is an important proximate determinant of China's high growth rate. This paper gathers together the available evidence to explain why investment is so high: factors both on the demand and on the supply side, and in the latter case the availability of both resources and funds. It analyzes the rate of return on capital and its evolution, and the factors that have kept it up. It draws on the literature to explain the high saving rate, and considers why the imperfect capital market and institutional deficiencies have not constrained investment. The state-owned and private sectors are treated separately because of their different objectives, behavior, and funding. (c) 2010 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.