Variation in Cold-Related Mortality in England Since the Introduction of the Cold Weather Plan: Which Areas Have the Greatest Unmet Needs?

: The Cold Weather Plan (CWP) in England was introduced to prevent the adverse health effects of cold weather; however, its impact is currently unknown. This study characterizes cold-related mortality and fuel poverty at STP (Sustainability and Transformation Partnership) level, and assesses changes in cold risk since the introduction of the CWP. Time series regression was used to estimate mortality risk for up to 28 days following exposure. Area level fuel poverty was used to indicate mitigation against cold exposure and mapped alongside area level risk. We found STP variations in mortality risk, ranging from 1.74, 1.44⁻2.09 (relative risk (RR), 95% CI) in Somerset, to 1.19, 1.01⁻1.40 in Cambridge and Peterborough. Following the introduction of the CWP, national-level mortality risk declined significantly in those aged 0⁻64 (1.34, 1.23⁻1.45, to 1.09, 1.00⁻1.19), but increased significantly among those aged 75+ (1.36, 1.28⁻1.44, to 1.58, 1.47⁻1.70) and for respiratory conditions (1.78, 1.56⁻2.02, to 2.4, 2.10⁻2.79). We show how spatial variation in cold mortality risk has increased since the introduction of the CWP, which may reflect differences in implementation of the plan. Combining risk with fuel poverty information identifies 14 STPs with the greatest need to address the cold effect, and that would gain most from enhanced CWP activity or additional intervention measures

La restitución de patria potestad establecida en el artículo 117 del Código de la Niñez y Adolescencia y la interdicción como consecuencia jurídica

La Restitución de Patria Potestad, contemplada en el artículo 117 del Código de Niñez y Adolescencia del Ecuador, constituye un derecho conferido a los padres que desean y tienen la capacidad de recobrar la patria potestad sobre sus hijos. Este derecho puede ejercerse mediante una solicitud formal, siempre y cuando se presenten pruebas suficientes que demuestren una variación sustancial en las circunstancias que originalmente motivaron la privación o suspensión de la patria potestad. Una de las causales de suspensión y privación es la interdicción por parte del progenitor, es decir la restricción de la capacidad jurídica de una persona y a su vez se resalta el margen de los efectos que pueda causar este estado del individuo al no poder gozar plenamente de sus derechos y deberes como padre o madre y posteriormente reintegrarse a mantener una convivencia con el hijo o hija, sin afectar el estado emocional del niño y en general el interés superior del niño. En este sentido el presente trabajo de investigación pretende determinar si es necesario que la ley exprese el respectivo proceso y seguimiento que debe llevarse a cabo para reintegrar al progenitor en la vida del hijo o hija sin vulnerar el interés superior del niño, considerando lo establecido en los cuerpos normativos del país. El tipo de investigación adoptado es el exploratorio, fichado con un nivel de investigación consecuente del enfoque cualitativo, equivalentemente son empleados el método analítico aquel que permite la descomposición de la información, el exegético cuya esencia es manifestar el propósito interno del autor y el deductivo que procura deducir la información recopilada. Asimismo la población está orientada a expertos en materia de Niñez y Adolescencia, a quienes se les aplicó las entrevistas y encuestas mismas que funcionan como método de investigación que permitió invalidar la idea a defender

The Impact of Heatwaves on Community Morbidity and Healthcare Usage: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance.

We investigated the impact of a moderate heatwave on a range of presenting morbidities in England. Asthma, difficulty breathing, cerebrovascular accident, and cardiovascular symptoms were analysed using general practitioner in hours (GPIH), out of hours (GPOOH) and emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance systems. Data were stratified by age group and compared between a heatwave year (2013) and non-heatwave years (2012, 2014). Incidence rate ratios were calculated to estimate the differential impact of heatwave compared to non-heatwave summers: there were no apparent differences for the morbidities tested between the 2013 heatwave and non-heatwave years. A subset of GPIH data were used to study individuals at higher risk from heatwaves based on their pre-existing disease. Higher risk patients were not more likely to present at GPs or ED than other individuals. Comparing GPIH consultations and ED attendances for myocardial infarction/ischaemia (MI), there was evidence of a fall in the presentation of MI during the heatwave, which was particularly noted in the 65-74 years age group (and over 75 years in ED attendances). These results indicate the difficulty in identifying individuals at risk from non-fatal health effects of heatwaves and hot weather

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use

Coastal flooding and frontline health care services: challenges for flood risk resilience in the English health care system.

Objectives Our objective was to assess the health care system impacts associated with the December 2013 east coast flooding in Boston, Lincolnshire, in order to gain an insight into the capacity of the health care sector to respond to high-impact weather. Methods Semistructured interviews were held with regional strategic decision makers and local service managers within 1 km of the recorded flood outline to ascertain their experiences, views and reflections concerning the event and its associated health impacts and disruption to health care services. A snowballing sampling technique was used to ensure the study had participants across a broad range of expertise. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim, and data analysis was preformed using NVivo (v10) to apply a thematic coding and develop a framework of ideas. Results The results of this case study provide a vital insight into the health care disruption caused by flooding. All sectors of the health care system suffered disruption, which placed a strain on the whole system and reduced the capacity of the sector to respond to the health consequences of flooding and delivering routine health care. The formal recovery phase in Lincolnshire was stood-down on 4th February 2014. The results of this work indicate limitations in preparedness of the health care system for the reasonable worse-case scenario for an east coast surge event. Conclusions The health care sector appears to have limited capacity to respond to weather-related impacts and is therefore unprepared for the risks associated with a future changing climate. Further work is required to ensure that the health care system continues to review and learn from such events to increase climate resilience. </jats:sec

Effect of evacuation and displacement on the association between flooding and mental health outcomes: a cross-sectional analysis of UK survey data.

BACKGROUND: Extensive flooding occurred during the winter of 2013-14 in England. Previous studies have shown that flooding affects mental health. Using data from the 2013-14 Public Health England National Study of Flooding and Health, we compared the prevalence of symptoms of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder between participants displaced by flooding and those flooded, but not displaced, 1 year after flooding. METHODS: In this multivariable ordinal regression analysis, we collected data from a cross-sectional survey collected 1 year after the flooding event from flood-affected postcodes in five counties in England. The analysis was restricted to individuals whose homes were flooded (n=622) to analyse displacement due to flooding. The primary outcome measures were depression (measured by the PHQ-2 depression scale) and anxiety (measured by the two-item Generalised Anxiety Disorder [GAD]-2 anxiety scale), and post-traumatic stress disorder (measured by the Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist [PCL]-6 scale). We adjusted analyses for recorded potential confounders. We also analysed duration of displacement and amount of warning received. FINDINGS: People who were displaced from their homes were significantly more likely to have higher scores on each scale; odds ratio (OR) for depression 1·95 (95% CI 1·30-2·93), for anxiety 1·66 (1·12-2·46), and for post-traumatic stress disorder 1·70 (1·17-2·48) than people who were not displaced. The increased risk of depression was significant even after adjustment for severity of flooding. Scores for depression and post-traumatic stress disorder were higher in people who were displaced and reported receiving no warning than those who had received a warning more than 12 h in advance of flooding (p=0·04 for depression, p=0·01 for post-traumatic stress disorder), although the difference in anxiety scores was not significant. INTERPRETATION: Displacement after flooding was associated with higher reported symptoms of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year after flooding. The amount of warning received showed evidence of being protective against symptoms of the three mental illnesses studied, and the severity of flooding might be the reason for some, but not all, of the differences between the groups. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Units (HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King's College London, Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Bristol, Public Health England

Heat protection behaviour in the UK: Results of an online survey after the 2013 heatwave

Background: The Heatwave Plan for England provides guidance for personal and home protection measures during heatwaves. Although studies in the USA, Australia and Europe have surveyed heat-related behaviours during heatwaves, few have been conducted in the UK. This study assesses personal and housing (at-home) behaviour and housing characteristics of the UK population during the 2013 heatwave. Methods: This paper analyses data from 1497 respondents of an online survey on heat protection measures and behaviour. Participants were asked questions about their behaviour during the 2013 heatwave, the characteristics of their current housing as well as about any negative health outcomes experienced due to the hot weather. We used multinomial logit regression to analyse personal and home heat protection behaviour and logistic regression to analyse characteristics of participants' current home (installed air conditioner, curtains etc.). We stratified the outcomes by age, sex, ethnicity, income, education and regional location. Results: In 2013, for all heat-related illness (except tiredness), a higher proportion of those in the younger age groups reported symptoms compared with those in the older age groups. Women, higher income groups and those with higher education levels were found to be more likely to report always/often taking personal heat protective measures. The elderly were less likely to take some personal and home protective measures but were more likely to live in insulated homes and open windows at night to keep their home cool. Conclusion: Our study has found a high level of awareness of the actions to take during heatwaves in the UK, and has identified important demographic indicators of sections of the UK population that might benefit from additional or more targeted information. The health agencies should attempt to provide better information about heatwaves to those vulnerable (elderly, those at risk living in London, low income earners) or identify any barriers that might be preventing them from undertaking protective behaviour

The English National Cohort Study of Flooding and Health: the change in the prevalence of psychological morbidity at year two.

BACKGROUND: The longer term impact of flooding on health is poorly understood. In 2015, following widespread flooding in the UK during winter 2013/14, Public Health England launched the English National Study of Flooding and Health. The study identified a higher prevalence of probable psychological morbidity one year after exposure to flooding. We now report findings after two years. METHODS: In year two (2016), a self-assessment questionnaire including flooding-related exposures and validated instruments to screen for probable anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was sent to all participants who consented to further follow-up. Participants exposure status was categorised according to responses in year one; we assessed for exposure to new episodes of flooding and continuing flood-related problems in respondents homes. We calculated the prevalence and odds ratio for each outcome by exposure group relative to unaffected participants, adjusting for confounders. We used the McNemar test to assess change in outcomes between year one and year two. RESULTS: In year two, 1064 (70%) people responded. The prevalence of probable psychological morbidity remained elevated amongst flooded participants [n = 339] (depression 10.6%, anxiety 13.6%, PTSD 24.5%) and disrupted participants [n = 512] (depression 4.1%, anxiety 6.4%, PTSD 8.9%), although these rates were reduced compared to year one. A greater reduction in anxiety 7.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.6-9.9) was seen than depression 3.8% (95% CI 1.5-6.1) and PTSD: 6.6% (95% CI 3.9-9.2). Exposure to flooding was associated with a higher odds of anxiety (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.2 95%, 95% CI 1.7-16.3) and depression (aOR 8.7, 95% CI 1.9-39.8) but not PTSD. Exposure to disruption caused by flooding was not significantly associated with probable psychological morbidity. Persistent damage in the home as a consequence of the original flooding event was reported by 119 participants (14%). The odds of probable psychological morbidity amongst flooded participants who reported persistent damage, compared with those who were unaffected, were significantly higher than the same comparison amongst flooded participants who did not report persistent damage. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a continuance of probable psychological morbidity at least two years following exposure to flooding. Commissioners and providers of health and social care services should be aware that the increased need in populations may be prolonged. Efforts to resolve persistent damage to homes may reduce the risk of probable psychological morbidity

Estimating the burden of heat illness in England during the 2013 summer heatwave using syndromic surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The burden of heat illness on health systems is not well described in the UK. Although the UK generally experiences mild summers, the frequency and intensity of hot weather is likely to increase due to climate change, particularly in Southern England. We investigated the impact of the moderate heatwave in 2013 on primary care and emergency department (ED) visits using syndromic surveillance data in England. METHODS: General practitioner in hours (GPIH), GP out of hours (GPOOH) and ED syndromic surveillance systems were used to monitor the health impact of heat/sun stroke symptoms (heat illness). Data were stratified by age group and compared between heatwave and non-heatwave years. Incidence rate ratios were calculated for GPIH heat illness consultations. RESULTS: GP consultations and ED attendances for heat illness increased during the heatwave period; GPIH consultations increased across all age groups, but the highest rates were in school children and those aged ≥75 years, with the latter persisting beyond the end of the heatwave. Extrapolating to the English population, we estimated that the number of GPIH consultations for heat illness during the whole summer (May to September) 2013 was 1166 (95% CI 1064 to 1268). This was double the rate observed during non-heatwave years. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the monitoring of heat illness (symptoms of heat/sun stroke) as part of the Heatwave Plan for England, but also suggest that specifically monitoring heat illness in children, especially those of school age, would provide additional early warning of, and situation awareness during heatwaves

Common, low-frequency, rare, and ultra-rare coding variants contribute to COVID-19 severity

The combined impact of common and rare exonic variants in COVID-19 host genetics is currently insufficiently understood. Here, common and rare variants from whole-exome sequencing data of about 4000 SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals were used to define an interpretable machine-learning model for predicting COVID-19 severity. First, variants were converted into separate sets of Boolean features, depending on the absence or the presence of variants in each gene. An ensemble of LASSO logistic regression models was used to identify the most informative Boolean features with respect to the genetic bases of severity. The Boolean features selected by these logistic models were combined into an Integrated PolyGenic Score that offers a synthetic and interpretable index for describing the contribution of host genetics in COVID-19 severity, as demonstrated through testing in several independent cohorts. Selected features belong to ultra-rare, rare, low-frequency, and common variants, including those in linkage disequilibrium with known GWAS loci. Noteworthily, around one quarter of the selected genes are sex-specific. Pathway analysis of the selected genes associated with COVID-19 severity reflected the multi-organ nature of the disease. The proposed model might provide useful information for developing diagnostics and therapeutics, while also being able to guide bedside disease management. © 2021, The Author(s)