Bayesian inference in high-dimensional linear models using an empirical correlation-adaptive prior

In the context of a high-dimensional linear regression model, we propose the use of an empirical correlation-adaptive prior that makes use of information in the observed predictor variable matrix to adaptively address high collinearity, determining if parameters associated with correlated predictors should be shrunk together or kept apart. Under suitable conditions, we prove that this empirical Bayes posterior concentrates around the true sparse parameter at the optimal rate asymptotically. A simplified version of a shotgun stochastic search algorithm is employed to implement the variable selection procedure, and we show, via simulation experiments across different settings and a real-data application, the favorable performance of the proposed method compared to existing methods.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

The International Particle Physics Outreach Group: Engaging the world with science

The International Particle Physics Outreach Group (IPPOG) is a network of scientists, science educators, and communication specialists working across the globe in informal science education and public engagement for particle physics. The primary methodology adopted by IPPOG includes the direct participation of scientists active in current research with education and communication specialists to effectively develop and share best practices in outreach. IPPOG member activities include the International Particle Physics Masterclass programme, International Day of Women and Girls in Science, Worldwide Data Day, International Muon Week, and International Cosmic Day organisation, and participation in activities ranging from public talks, festivals, exhibitions, teacher training, student competitions, and open days at local institutes. These independent activities, often carried out in a variety of languages to public with a variety of backgrounds, all serve to gain the public trust and improve worldwide understanding and support of science. We present our vision of IPPOG as a strategic pillar of particle physics, fundamental research, and evidence-based decision-making around the world. REFERENCE  The International Particle Physics Outreach Group (2022). Retrieved June 13, 2022, from https://ippog.or

On Robust Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis using Multivariate tt-Distributions

Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) is a probabilistic reformulation of principal component analysis (PCA), under the framework of a Gaussian latent variable model. To improve the robustness of PPCA, it has been proposed to change the underlying Gaussian distributions to multivariate $t$-distributions. Based on the representation of $t$-distribution as a scale mixture of Gaussian distributions, a hierarchical model is used for implementation. However, in the existing literature, the hierarchical model implemented does not yield the equivalent interpretation. In this paper, we present two sets of equivalent relationships between the high-level multivariate $t$-PPCA framework and the hierarchical model used for implementation. In doing so, we clarify a current misrepresentation in the literature, by specifying the correct correspondence. In addition, we discuss the performance of different multivariate $t$ robust PPCA methods both in theory and simulation studies, and propose a novel Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (MCEM) algorithm to implement one general type of such models.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables. Typos corrected and further numerical results adde

Spatial regression modeling via the R2D2 framework

Spatially dependent data arises in many applications, and Gaussian processes are a popular modelling choice for these scenarios. While Bayesian analyses of these problems have proven to be successful, selecting prior distributions for these complex models remains a difficult task. In this work, we propose a principled approach for setting prior distributions on model variance components by placing a prior distribution on a measure of model fit. In particular, we derive the distribution of the prior coefficient of determination. Placing a beta prior distribution on this measure induces a generalized beta prime prior distribution on the global variance of the linear predictor in the model. This method can also be thought of as shrinking the fit towards the intercept-only (null) model. We derive an efficient Gibbs sampler for the majority of the parameters and use Metropolis-Hasting updates for the others. Finally, the method is applied to a marine protection area data set. We estimate the effect of marine policies on biodiversity and conclude that no-take restrictions lead to a slight increase in biodiversity and that the majority of the variance in the linear predictor comes from the spatial effect.\vspace{12pt

Spatial regression with covariate measurement error: A semiparametric approach

© 2016, The International Biometric Society. Spatial data have become increasingly common in epidemiology and public health research thanks to advances in GIS (Geographic Information Systems) technology. In health research, for example, it is common for epidemiologists to incorporate geographically indexed data into their studies. In practice, however, the spatially defined covariates are often measured with error. Naive estimators of regression coefficients are attenuated if measurement error is ignored. Moreover, the classical measurement error theory is inapplicable in the context of spatial modeling because of the presence of spatial correlation among the observations. We propose a semiparametric regression approach to obtain bias-corrected estimates of regression parameters and derive their large sample properties. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method through simulation studies and illustrate using data on Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD). Both simulation and practical application demonstrate that the proposed method can be effective in practice