"All politics is local": how local context explains radical right voting

People do not form their political preferences in a vacuum. They are deeply influenced by everyday experiences in the communities where they live and work—experiences that cannot neatly be categorised as ‘economic’ or ‘cultural’. These insights, this thesis argues, are crucial to understanding why people vote for radical right parties in Europe. The thesis examines these local contextual factors using panel regressions and multilevel analyses based on original and existing datasets of fine-grained census, electoral and survey data. It makes three main contributions. First, the thesis adds a spatial dimension to the study of radical right voting behaviour by showing how local sociotropic mechanisms— such as local labour market competition from immigrants with similar skill levels (paper 2) and the degradation of local socio-cultural spaces (paper 3)—affect people’s vote, alongside individual and national factors. Second, the thesis reconciles competing theories about the influence of economic and cultural factors on radical right support by pointing to the role of additional variables. Paper 1 shows how ‘subjective social status’ intermediates the relationship between economic distress and the rejection of cultural outgroups (a radical right catch-cry). Paper 3 explores how the decline of everyday opportunities for communal interaction—here, the closure of British pubs—fuels radical right support. Paper 2 looks at the economic effects of immigration at a more granular level, showing that it is neither immigration nor unemployment per se that boosts radical right support but rather localised competition between immigrants and natives with similar skillsets. This finding points to the third contribution of this thesis: it explains why middle-class voters are also drawn to the radical right. Overall, this investigation of local contextual factors adds a crucial new dimension to our understanding of what drives people to vote for radical right political parties

Economic competition between native workers and migrants has a clear link with support for the radical right among French voters

Marine Le Pen has targeted the French local elections on 15 and 22 March as a way to build momentum ahead of the next French presidential election in 2022. Drawing on a new study, Diane Bolet writes on the role of economic competition between native workers and immigrants in determining support for Le Pen’s National Rally (formerly the Front National)

The janus-faced nature of radical voting: Subjective social decline at the roots of radical right and radical left support

This study advances the decline of Parent-Relative Subjective Social Status (PRSSS) as a reconciling factor among radical right and radical left supporters. While self-employed workers, men and rural residents perceive socioeconomic decline relative to their parents and support the radical right, the well-educated, urbanites and low-income individuals are likely to feel similar decline given the rising levels of unemployment and social inequality. These structural changes may push the latter to support a party which stresses income inequality, a catchcry of the radical left. Using a 2017 Eurobarometer Survey, logistic regressions show positive associations between low PRSSS (versus equal or high PRSSS) and support for right- and left-wing radicalism in 28 European countries. The traditional attitudes of each group magnify the PRSSS effects on radical support: it is reinforced by anti-immigrant support for the radical right and by preference for redistribution for the radical left

Drinking alone: local socio-cultural degradation and radical right support—the case of British pub closures

Little is known about how local context influences radical right voting. This paper advances the theory that the degradation of local socio-cultural hubs is linked to radical right support by contributing to loss of community and cultural identity. I examine this thesis by exploiting an original dataset on British community pub closures. I argue that the disappearance of community pubs triggers social isolation and signals the decline of the British working class condition, which is associated with UKIP support. Combining district-level data with UK panel data (2013–2016), I show that individuals living in districts that experience one additional community pub closure (relative to the total number of pubs per district) are more likely to support UKIP than any other party by 4.3 percentage points. The effect is magnified under conditions of material deprivation. This paper highlights the significance of local socio-cultural degradation as a mechanism to explain radical right support

Continental Breakfast 6: is Switzerland a model for the UK-EU relationship?

The Swiss ambassador to the UK joined experts in the field at the LSE on 6 December to discuss the pros and cons of the Swiss model as a frame for Britain's future relationship with the EU. Diane Bolet (LSE) reports on the key points of the discussion, which was held under Chatham House rules. The Swiss model is instructive for the UK – but perhaps chiefly because of its inherent problems and unsuitability for the UK

Local labour market competition and radical right voting: evidence from France

How do the economic effects of immigration affect radical right support? The evidence in support of the labour market competition theory—which posits that the economic threat posed by immigration to jobs and wages leads to radical right voting—has been mixed. On the one hand, individual‐level surveys underreport economic drivers because of social desirability bias. On the other hand, contextual studies show contradictory findings due to an over‐reliance on units of analysis that are too aggregated to meaningfully capture the competitive threat posed by immigrants. This paper identifies the influence of labour market competition on radical right voting at a local level in contexts where native workers are directly affected by the arrival of immigrants who have similar or higher skillsets. Using an original longitudinal dataset of fine‐grained municipal electoral, demographic and economic data from France over the 2002–2017 period, the paper provides empirical evidence of local contextual influences of economic competition between natives and immigrants of any skillset. Under local conditions of material deprivation, measured by the local unemployment rate, the effect of labour market competition on municipalities’ radical right vote share is amplified. Moreover, higher radical right support is observed in municipalities with a higher share of any one of the following groups: low‐skilled natives; medium‐skilled immigrants; or high‐skilled immigrants. This supports the hypothesis that immigrants with higher qualifications are compelled to accept lower‐skilled jobs, and are thus perceived as a competitive threat to low‐skilled natives. By reconciling radical right contextual studies and research on the political economy of immigration policies, this paper highlights the importance of a local analysis in detecting the effect of labour market competition on radical right support. This paper also explains why some local areas are more prone to radical right support than others over time

Vox populi, vox dei? The effect of sociotropic and egocentric incongruence on democratic preferences

Systemic congruence between the whole legislature and the whole electorate (‘many‐to‐many’, or sociotropic congruence) should be the benchmark to evaluate a democratic system. Yet, most studies link shifts in democratic preferences to individual‐level representation (‘many‐to‐one’, or egocentric incongruence), since individual‐level representation failures should be more salient and visible for individual citizens. We argue that the sociotropic incongruence hypothesis has not been appropriately tested to date, because the measure does not vary at individual level in observational data. Using an experiment conducted in France, we manipulate various sociotropic (in)congruence scenarios at the individual level. In addition to the incongruence hypotheses, our original experiment tests whether offering expertise‐based justifications to incongruence attenuates the backlash against representatives. We find that, even when giving sociotropic incongruence a fair test, egocentric incongruence still consistently shapes democratic preferences, while the effect of sociotropic incongruence remains negligible. Furthermore, we find that narratives rooted in expertise claims do not attenuate the effect of representation failure on backlash against representative democracy: they exacerbate it

Does (Non-)Localness Affect MPs’ Levels of Responsiveness? Evidence from a UK Field Experiment

Does an MP's localness affect their behaviour towards constituents? Existing research has shown biases in MPs' responsiveness to citizens based on citizens' sociodemographic and political traits and voters’ tendency to prefer ‘local’ MPs. Yet, we know little about whether MPs' localness affects their responsiveness to constituents. MPs' localness may influence their behaviour for strategic reasons and/or because of homophily. To explore this relationship, we conducted a field experiment in the United Kingdom where we asked legislators about their policy priorities regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that local MPs do not differentiate in their responsiveness to constituents. However, non-local MPs are motivated by party affiliation and gender in their responsiveness to constituents, with ethnicity and class playing insignificant roles. Non-local MPs respond more to co-partisans than non-partisans and women non-local MPs are more responsive to women constituents. This experiment underscores the impact of (non-)localness on MPs' interactions with constituents

Understanding Brexit: impacts at local level: Ceredigion case study

The UK is in a critical juncture with regard to the process of negotiations to leave the European Union. Important discussions are taking place which will shape the future relation between Britain and the EU. The economic analyses published on the issue have, so far, largely failed to grasp the attention of the general public. Most of the discussions about Brexit have focused at a national level and there has been very little evidence-based discussion at a local level. This project aims at stimulating a reflexive participatory research process involving citizens, policy-makers, business people and civil-society representatives. It introduces an innovative methodology that contextualises quantitative data through expert interviews and the analysis of local sources. The reports and discussion panels organised within the framework of the project seek to increase our understanding about the impact of Brexit at a local level

Understanding Brexit: impacts at a local level: Pendle case study

The UK is in a critical juncture with regard to the process of negotiations to leave the European Union. Important discussions are taking place which will shape the future relation between Britain and the EU. The economic analyses published on the issue have, so far, largely failed to grasp the attention of the general public. Most of the discussions about Brexit have focused at a national level and there has been very little evidence-based discussion at a local level. This project aims at stimulating a reflexive participatory research process involving citizens, policy-makers, business people and civil-society representatives. It introduces an innovative methodology that contextualises quantitative data through expert interviews and the analysis of local sources. The reports and discussion panels organised within the framework of the project seek to increase our understanding about the impact of Brexit at a local level