Predicting which children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis will not attain early remission with conventional treatment: Results from the Reacch-out cohort

Objective. To estimate the probability of early remission with conventional treatment for each child with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Children with a low chance of remission may be candidates for initial treatment with biologics or triple disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD). Methods. We used data from 1074 subjects in the Research in Arthritis in Canadian Children emphasizing Outcomes (ReACCh-Out) cohort. The predicted outcome was clinically inactive disease for ≥ 6 months starting within 1 year of JIA diagnosis in patients who did not receive early biologic agents or triple DMARD. Models were developed in 200 random splits of 75% of the cohort and tested on the remaining 25% of subjects, calculating expected and observed frequencies of remission and c-index values. Results. Our best Cox logistic model combining 18 clinical variables a median of 2 days after diagnosis had a c-index of 0.69 (95% CI 0.67-0.71), better than using JIA category alone (0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.63). Children in the lowest probability decile had a 20% chance of remission and 21% attained remission; children in the highest decile had a 69% chance of remission and 73% attained remission. Compared to 5% of subjects identified by JIA category alone, the model identified 14% of subjects as low chance of remission (probability \u3c 0.25), of whom 77% failed to attain remission. Conclusion. Although the model did not meet our a priori performance threshold (c-index \u3e 0.70), it identified 3 times more subjects with low chance of remission than did JIA category alone, and it may serve as a benchmark for assessing value added by future laboratory/imaging biomarkers

A new Canadian inception cohort for juvenile idiopathic arthritis: The Canadian Alliance of Pediatric Rheumatology Investigators Registry.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to describe the design, methods and initial findings of a new Canadian inception cohort of children with JIA, The Canadian Alliance of Pediatric Rheumatology Investigators (CAPRI) JIA Registry. METHODS: The CAPRI JIA Registry was started in 2017 to collect information prospectively on children enrolled within 3 months of JIA diagnosis across Canada. The registry has a non-traditional modular design, with no artificially set times for registry visits to occur, streamlined multi-method data collection that requires 2-4 min per visit, and reports cumulative incidence of treatments, outcomes and adverse events calculated by Kaplan-Meier survival methods. RESULTS: A total of 166 patients, enrolled a median of 6 weeks after JIA diagnosis at 10 centres, were included. The median age at diagnosis was 9 years [interquartile range (IQR) 3, 13], 61% were female and 51% had oligoarticular JIA. The median three-variable clinical Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score was 6.5 (IQR 4, 10) at enrolment, and the median time to first attainment of clinically inactive disease (CID) was 24 weeks (by 1 year, 81%). Within 1 year of diagnosis, 70% of patients had started a DMARD and 35% a biologic agent. The rates of adverse events and serious adverse events were 60 and 5.8 per 100 patient-years, respectively. CONCLUSION: This streamlined and flexible registry minimizes the burden of data collection and interference with clinic operations. Initial findings suggest that treatments for newly diagnosed patients with JIA in Canada have intensified, and now 81% of patients attain CID within 1 year of diagnosis

Growth and weight gain in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: results from the ReACCh-Out cohort

Background: With modern treatments, the effect of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) on growth may be less than previously reported. Our objective was to describe height, weight and body mass index (BMI) development in a contemporary JIA inception cohort. Methods: Canadian children newly-diagnosed with JIA 2005–2010 had weight and height measurements every 6 months for 2 years, then yearly up to 5 years. These measurements were used to calculate mean age- and sex-standardized Z-scores, and estimate prevalence and cumulative incidence of growth impairments, and the impact of disease activity and corticosteroids on growth. Results: One thousand one hundred forty seven children were followed for median 35.5 months. Mean Z-scores, and the point prevalence of short stature (height  95th percentile, 15.8% to 16.4%) remained unchanged in the whole cohort. Thirty-three children (2.9%) developed new-onset short stature, while 27 (2.4%) developed tall stature (>97.5th percentile). Children with systemic arthritis (n = 77) had an estimated 3-year cumulative incidence of 9.3% (95%CI: 4.3–19.7) for new-onset short stature and 34.4% (23–49.4) for obesity. Most children (81.7%) received no systemic corticosteroids, but 1 mg/Kg/day prednisone-equivalent maintained for 6 months corresponded to a drop of 0.64 height Z-scores (0.56–0.82) and an increase of 0.74 BMI Z-scores (0.56–0.92). An increase of 1 in the 10-cm physician global assessment of disease activity maintained for 6 months corresponded to a drop of 0.01 height Z-scores (0–0.02). Conclusions: Most children in this modern JIA cohort grew and gained weight as children in the general population. About 1 in 10 children who had systemic arthritis, uncontrolled disease and/or prolonged corticosteroid use, had increased risk of growth impairment.Medicine, Faculty ofOther UBCNon UBCPediatrics, Department ofReviewedFacult