Evaluating the performance of survey-based operational management procedures

The design and evaluation of survey-based management strategies is addressed in this article, using three case-study fisheries: North Sea herring, Bay of Biscay anchovy and North Sea cod, with a brief history and the main management issues with each fishery outlined. A range of operational management procedures for the case study stocks were designed and evaluated using trends that may be derived from survey indices (spawner biomass, year-class strength and total mortality) with an array of simple and more structured observation error regimes simulated. Model-free and model-based indicators of stock status were employed in the management procedures. On the basis of stochastic stock-specific simulations, we identified the following key determinants of successful management procedures: (i) adequate specification of the stock-recruit relationship (model structure, parameter estimates and variability), (ii) knowledge of the magnitude and structure of the variation in the survey indices, and (iii) explication of the particular management objectives, when assessing management performance. More conservative harvesting strategies are required to meet specified targets in the presence of increasing stochasticity, due to both process and observation error. It was seen that survey-based operational management procedures can perform well in the absence of commercial data, and can also inform aspects of survey design with respect to acceptable levels of error or bias in the surveys

Assessment of herd effects among women and heterosexual men after girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination in the Netherlands: A repeated cross-sectional study

Data on the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on the population HPV prevalence are largely obtained from women. We assessed the impact of the girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination program in the Netherlands that started in 2009, on trends in HPV prevalence among women and heterosexual men, using data from the PASSYON study. In this crosssectional study, the HPV prevalence among 16- to 24-year-old visitors to sexually transmitted infection clinics was assessed in 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015. We compared the genital postvaccination HPV prevalence with the prevaccination prevalence (2009) using Poisson GEE models. In total, we included 4,996 women and 1,901 heterosexual men. The percentage of women who reported to be vaccinated increased from 2.3% in 2009 to 37% in 2015. Among all women, the HPV16/18 prevalence decreased from 23% prevaccination to 15% in 2015 (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 0.62, ptrend < 0.01). Among heterosexual men, the HPV16/18 prevalence decreased from 17% prevaccination to 11% in 2015 (aPR 0.52, ptrend < 0.01). Of the heterosexual men with a steady partner, HPV16/18 prevalence was lower among those whose steady partner had been vaccine-eligible in the national immunization program (aPR 0.13). Among unvaccinated women, the HPV16/18 prevalence in 2015 was not different from prevaccination. The decreasing HPV16/18 prevalence among heterosexual men and the reduced HPV16/18 prevalence among heterosexual men with a vaccineeligible steady partner strongly suggests herd protection from girls-only vaccination. Absence of notable herd effects among unvaccinated women 6 years postvaccination may be due to the moderate vaccine uptake among girls in the Netherlands.What’s new? Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted virus that plays a causal role in the development of anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers in both men and women. The population-level impact of HPV vaccination programs on the HPV prevalence has however mainly been studied in women. This study shows decreasing trends in the HPV16 and HPV18 prevalence among both women and heterosexual men after the introduction of a girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination program in the Netherlands. The findings provide compelling evidence for herd protection in men. Because HPV16/18 are the most oncogenic types, HPV-related cancers are expected to decline in both sexes after girls-only HPV vaccination

HPV infections among young MSM visiting sexual health centers in the Netherlands: opportunities for targeted HPV vaccination

Introduction: In 2009, girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination was introduced in the Netherlands which has achieved 46-61% uptake. Heterosexual men have benefitted from herd protection, but it is unknown whether men who have sex with men (MSM) also benefit from herd effects of the girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination program. Because MSM bear a high HPV-related disease burden, countries might consider targeted vaccination for MSM. To study possible herd effects and prior HPV exposure at a potential moment of vaccination, we assessed trends in the HPV prevalence and proportions (sero)negative for the various vaccine types among young MSM visiting sexual health centers (SHCs).Methods: We used data from MSM included in PASSYON study years 2009-2017. In this biennial cross-sectional study among visitors of SHCs aged 16-24 years, MSM provided a penile and anal swab for HPV DNA testing (including vaccine types HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) and blood for HPV antibody testing (HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58).Results: In total 575 MSM were included, with a median of 22 years of age and 15 lifetime sex partners and 3.5% HIV positive. Trends in penile or anal HPV prevalence during 2009-2017 were statistically non-significant for all vaccine types. Of the 455 MSM with a penile and anal swab, 360 (79%), 283 (62%) and 242 (53%) were HPV DNA negative at both anatomical sites for HPV16/18, HPV6/11/16/18 and HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 respectively. Among MSM who were HPV16/18 and HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58 DNA negative and were tested for serology (n = 335 and 279 respectively), 82% and 71% were also seronegative for the respective types.Discussion: There were no significant declines in the HPV prevalence among MSM up to eight years after introduction of girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination, indicating that MSM are unlikely to benefit largely from herd effects from girls-only vaccination. Most MSM were vaccine-type DNA negative and seronegative, suggesting that vaccination of young MSM visiting SHCs could still be beneficial. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

HPV-vaccinatie: ook voor jongens?

Sinds 2010 kunnen meisjes van 12 jaar zich gratis laten inenten tegen humaan papillomavirus (HPV-)16 en 18, geassocieerd met 70% van het aantal gevallen van baarmoederhalskanker. HPV wordt ook met andere vormen van kanker in verband gebracht, zowel bij mannen als bij vrouwen. Dit heeft geleid tot registratie van het HPV-vaccin voor jongens en meisjes vanaf 9 jaar. De doelmatigheid van eventuele jongensvaccinatie hangt echter sterk af van de indirecte bescherming die zij al genieten van meisjesvaccinatie. Bij een gelijkblijvende vaccinatiegraad van 60% van de meisjes schatten wij dat er ongeveer 800 jongens moeten worden ingeënt om één extra geval van kanker onder mannen te voorkómen. Ter vergelijking, voor invoering van HPV-vaccinatie voor meisjes is berekend dat 200 meisjes dienden te worden ingeënt om één geval van baarmoederhalskanker te voorkómen. Dit impliceert dat gratis inenting van jongens via het Rijksvaccinatieprogramma alleen kosteneffectief is bij een lage vaccinprijs

Bayesian survey-based assessment of North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa): extracting integrated signals from multiple surveys

Dependence on a relatively small sample size is generally viewed as a big disadvantage for survey-based assessments. We propose an integrated catch-at-age model for research vessel data derived from multiple surveys, and illustrate its utility in estimating trends in North Sea plaice abundance and fishing mortality. Parameter estimates were obtained by Bayesian analysis, which allows for estimation of uncertainty in model parameters attributable to measurement error. Model results indicated constant fishing selectivity over the distribution area of the North Sea plaice stock, with decreased selectivity at older age. Whereas separate analyses of survey datasets suggested different biomass trends in the southeast than in the western and central North Sea, a combined analysis demonstrated that the observations in both subareas were compatible and that spawning-stock biomass has been increasing over the period 1996¿2005. The annual proportion of fish that dispersed in a northwesterly direction was estimated to increase from about 10% at age 2 to 33% at age 5 and older. We also found higher fishing mortality rates than reported in ICES assessments, which could be the consequence of inadequate specification of catchability-at-age in this study or underestimated fishing mortality by the conventional ICES assessment, which relies on official landings figure