apoB/apoA-I Ratio and Lp(a) Associations With Aortic Valve Stenosis Incidence: Insights From the EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study.

Background Apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (apoB/apoA-I) ratio and lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) are associated with aortic valve stenosis (AVS) disease progression. Clinical characteristics such as age, sex, and presence of concomitant coronary artery disease may strongly modify these associations; however, these effects have not been well defined in longitudinal studies. We set out to assess these associations between apoB/apoA-I ratio, Lp(a), and AVS incidence in a large population study. Methods and Results We analyzed data from 17 745 participants (mean age, 59.2±9.1 years; men, 44.9%) in the EPIC-Norfolk (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer in Norfolk Prospective Population Study) population study in whom apoB/apoA-I and Lp(a) levels were measured. Participants were identified as having incident AVS if they were hospitalized or died with AVS as an underlying cause. After a median follow-up of 19.8 years (17.9-21.0 years) there were 403 (2.2%) incident cases of AVS. The hazard ratio for AVS risk was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.19-1.41; P50 mg/dL) remained an independent risk factor for AVS after adjustment for age, sex, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and concomitant coronary artery disease (hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.33-2.19 [P<0.001]). Conclusions In this population study, apoB/apoA-I ratio was associated with risk of AVS incidence, especially in younger and female participants and those without concomitant coronary artery disease. Lp(a) was an independent risk factor for AVS incidence. Interventional trials are needed to investigate whether modulating apoB/apoA-I or lowering Lp(a) can prevent or slow down AVS

Ideal cardiovascular health and risk of cardiovascular events in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association has prioritised seven cardiovascular health metrics to reduce the cardiovascular burden, including: body mass index, healthy diet, physical activity, smoking status, blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin A1c and total cholesterol. The aim of the current study was to assess the association between the American Heart Association-defined health metrics and the risk of cardiovascular events in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective study. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: An overall cardiovascular health score was calculated based on the number of health metrics including ideal, intermediate or poor. Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the association of the seven metrics separately and the overall health score with risk of coronary heart disease, stroke and cardiovascular disease. A total of 10,043 participants was included in the analysis (follow-up 1993-2008). For all individual health metrics a more ideal status was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: As for the overall cardiovascular health score, those in the highest (i.e. healthiest) category (score 12-14) had an adjusted hazard ratio for coronary heart disease of 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.29, P < 0.001), for stroke of 0.16 (95% CI 0.02-1.37, P = 0.09) and for cardiovascular disease of 0.07 (95% CI 0.02-0.23, P < 0.001), compared to people in the lowest (i.e. unhealthiest) category (score 0-2). The overall cardiovascular health score was strongly and inversely associated with risk of coronary heart disease, stroke and cardiovascular disease. Our data suggest that even small improvements in modifiable risk factors may lead to substantial reductions in the risks of cardiovascular events.The EPIC-Norfolk Study is funded by Cancer Research UK grant number 14136 and the Medical Research Council grant number G1000143, SL is supported by a studentship from Unilever Corporate Research, UK.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE via http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/204748731560201

C-Reactive Protein Identifies Low-Risk Metabolically Healthy Obese Persons: The European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk Prospective Population Study.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting data exist about the cardiovascular risk of metabolically healthy obese persons. The prognostic value of C-reactive protein (CRP) in this intriguing group is unknown. We assessed the association between CRP levels and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in metabolically healthy persons with abdominal obesity. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk prospective cohort, CRP levels and information on metabolic syndrome criteria were available for 7279 participants, of whom 825 (11%) developed CHD during a follow-up period of 10.9±1.8 years. There was a trend toward a higher multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for CHD in metabolically healthy obese participants with CRP levels >2 mg/L compared with <2 mg/L (hazard ratio 1.59, 95% CI 0.97-2.62, P=0.066). Metabolically unhealthy obese participants had significantly higher CHD risk compared with metabolically healthy obese participants with CRP levels <2 mg/L (hazard ratio 1.88, 95% CI 1.20-2.94, P=0.006). Most important, we found that the risk of CHD among metabolically healthy obese persons with CRP levels <2 mg/L was comparable to that of metabolically healthy nonobese persons (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.60-1.39, P=0.674). CONCLUSIONS: Among metabolically healthy obese persons, low CRP levels were associated with a CHD risk comparable to that of metabolically healthy nonobese persons. CRP appears to be an easy and widely available method for identifying a low-risk subpopulation among metabolically healthy obese persons.EPIC‐Norfolk is supported by program grants from the Medical Research Council UK and Cancer Research UK. The CRP measurements in the full cohort were supported by a grant from the Medical Research Council to the Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge, United Kingdom (MRC G0701863). The funding sources had no role in the study design, the conduct of the analysis, or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication

Impact of physical activity on the risk of cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and older adults: EPIC Norfolk prospective population study.

Background There is broad consensus that regular physical activity yields major health benefits. However, current guidelines on physical activity are mainly aimed at middle-aged adults. It is unclear whether physical activity also translates into cardiovascular health benefits in older adults. Therefore, we aimed to compare the association between different levels of physical activity and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in elderly to middle-aged individuals. Methods We analysed data from the EPIC Norfolk prospective population study. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyse the association between physical activity levels and time to CVD events in three age categories (65 years). Interaction between age categories and physical activity levels was assessed. Results Analyses were based on 24,502 study participants aged 39-79 years. A total of 5240 CVD events occurred during 412,954 person-years follow-up (median follow-up was 18.0 years). Among individuals aged over 65 years, hazard ratios for CVD were 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78-0.96), 0.87 (95% CI 0.77-0.99) and 0.88 (95% CI 0.77-1.02) in moderately inactive, moderately active and active people, respectively, compared to inactive people. Among people aged 55-65 and less than 55 years, the associations were directionally similar, but not statistically significant. The interaction term between physical activity levels and age categories was not significant ( P = 0.38). Conclusion The inverse association between physical activity and the risk of CVD was significant in elderly and comparable with middle-aged individuals. In addition, we observed that modest levels of physical activity confer benefits in terms of CVD risk, compared to being completely inactive

Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: the rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model.

BACKGROUND: We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established. METHODS: The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared. RESULTS: At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences. CONCLUSIONS: We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

A 3-SNP gene risk score and a metabolic risk score both predict hypertriglyceridemia and cardiovascular disease risk.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the causal link between plasma triglyceride (TG) levels and risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) has recently emerged. Individuals with the metabolic syndrome have an increased risk for acquiring elevated TG levels later in life. Moreover, common DNA sequence variations in genes affecting TG levels identify individuals at risk for elevated plasma TG levels. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated whether a 3-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) TG gene risk score (GRS) and a metabolic risk score (MetRS) both improved CVD risk prediction. METHODS: A 3-SNP GRS and MetRS were generated in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort (n = 20,074) based on 3 SNPs in LPL and APOA5 or the number of Metabolic Syndrome criteria present (maximum 5), respectively. The associations between the 3-SNP GRS, MetRS, TG levels, and CVD risk were evaluated. RESULTS: The 3-SNP GRS and MetRS were both linearly associated with plasma TG levels, that is, +0.25 mmol/L [95% CI 0.22-0.27] per allele change (P < .001) and +0.72 mmol/L [95% CI 0.70-0.73] per increase of number of metabolic syndrome risk score points (P < .001), respectively. We observed a positive association between the 3-SNP GRS and the risk of CVD with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.35 [95% CI 1.04-1.74] for the highest versus the lowest GRS, which was independent of the MetRS. For the MetRS, the adjusted HR was 2.03 [95% CI 1.73-2.40] for the highest versus the lowest MetRS. CONCLUSION: Both the 3-SNP GRS and the MetRS are associated with increased plasma TG levels and increased risk for CVD

Lipoprotein(a) has no major impact on calcification activity in patients with mild to moderate aortic valve stenosis

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether patients with aortic valve stenosis (AS) with elevated lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) are characterised by increased valvular calcification activity compared with those with low Lp(a). METHODS: We performed (18)F-sodium fluoride ((18)F-NaF) positron emission tomography/CT in patients with mild to moderate AS (peak aortic jet velocity between 2 and 4 m/s) and high versus low Lp(a) (>50 mg/dL vs <50 mg/dL, respectively). Subjects were matched according to age, gender, peak aortic jet velocity and valve morphology. We used a target to background ratio with the most diseased segment approach to compare (18)F-NaF uptake. RESULTS: 52 individuals (26 matched pairs) were included in the analysis. The mean age was 66.4±5.5 years, 44 (84.6%) were men, and the mean aortic valve velocity was 2.80±0.49 m/s. The median Lp(a) was 79 (64–117) mg/dL and 7 (5–11) mg/dL in the high and low Lp(a) groups, respectively. Systolic blood pressure and low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (corrected for Lp(a)) were significantly higher in the low Lp(a) group (141±12 mm Hg vs 128±12 mm Hg, 2.5±1.1 mmol/L vs 1.9±0.8 mmol/L). We found no difference in valvular (18)F-NaF uptake between the high and low Lp(a) groups (3.02±1.26 vs 3.05±0.96, p=0.902). Linear regression analysis showed valvular calcium score to be the only significant determinant of valvular (18)F-NaF uptake (β=0.63; 95% CI 0.38 to 0.88 per 1000 Agatston unit increase, p<0.001). Lp(a) was not associated with (18)F-NaF uptake (β=0.17; 95% CI −0.44 to 0.88, p=0.305 for the high Lp(a) group). CONCLUSION: Among patients with mild to moderate AS, calcification activity is predominantly determined by established calcium burden. The results do not support our hypothesis that Lp(a) is associated with valvular (18)F-NaF uptake

Both Paraoxonase-1 Genotype and Activity Do Not Predict the Risk of Future Coronary Artery Disease; the EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study

Paraoxonase-1 (PON1) is an antioxidant enzyme, that resides on high-density lipoprotein (HDL). PON1-activity, is heavily influenced by the PON1-Q192R polymorphism. PON1 is considered to protect against atherosclerosis, but it is unclear whether this relation is independent of its carrier, HDL. In order to evaluate the atheroprotective potential of PON1, we assessed the relationships among PON1-genotype, PON1-activity and risk of future coronary artery disease (CAD), in a large prospective case-control study. Methodology/Principal Findings: Cases (n = 1138) were apparently healthy men and women aged 45-79 years who developed fatal or nonfatal CAD during a mean follow-up of 6 years. Controls (n = 2237) were matched by age, sex and enrollment time. PON1-activity was similar in cases and controls (60.7 +/- 645.3 versus 62.6 +/- 645.8 U/L, p = 0.3) and correlated with HDL-cholesterol levels (r = 0.16, p < 0.0001). The PON1-Q192R polymorphism had a profound impact on PON1-activity, but did not predict CAD risk (Odds Ratio [OR] per R allele 0.98[0.84-1.15], p = 0.8). Using conditional logistic regression, quartiles of PON1-activity showed a modest inverse relation with CAD risk (OR for the highest versus the lowest quartile 0.77[0.63-0.95], p = 0.01; p-trend = 0.06). PON1-activity adjusted for Q192R polymorphism correlated better with HDL-cholesterol (r = 0.26, p < 0.0001) and more linearly predicted CAD risk (0.79[0.64-0.98], p = 0.03; p-trend = 0.008). However, these relationships were abolished after adjustment for HDL (particles-cholesterol-size) and apolipoprotein A-l (0.94[0.74-1.18], p-trend = 0.3). Conclusions/Significance: This study, shows that PON1-activity inversely relates to CAD risk, but not independent of HDL, due to its close association with the HDL-particle. These data strongly suggest that a low PON1-activity is not a causal factor in atherogenesi