19 research outputs found
Deep Evidential Learning for Bayesian Quantile Regression
It is desirable to have accurate uncertainty estimation from a single
deterministic forward-pass model, as traditional methods for uncertainty
quantification are computationally expensive. However, this is difficult
because single forward-pass models do not sample weights during inference and
often make assumptions about the target distribution, such as assuming it is
Gaussian. This can be restrictive in regression tasks, where the mean and
standard deviation are inadequate to model the target distribution accurately.
This paper proposes a deep Bayesian quantile regression model that can estimate
the quantiles of a continuous target distribution without the Gaussian
assumption. The proposed method is based on evidential learning, which allows
the model to capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty with a single
deterministic forward-pass model. This makes the method efficient and scalable
to large models and datasets. We demonstrate that the proposed method achieves
calibrated uncertainties on non-Gaussian distributions, disentanglement of
aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, and robustness to out-of-distribution
samples
Deep Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Electrical Vehicle Charging Demand
Electric vehicles can offer a low carbon emission solution to reverse rising
emission trends. However, this requires that the energy used to meet the demand
is green. To meet this requirement, accurate forecasting of the charging demand
is vital. Short and long-term charging demand forecasting will allow for better
optimisation of the power grid and future infrastructure expansions. In this
paper, we propose to use publicly available data to forecast the electric
vehicle charging demand. To model the complex spatial-temporal correlations
between charging stations, we argue that Temporal Graph Convolution Models are
the most suitable to capture the correlations. The proposed Temporal Graph
Convolutional Networks provide the most accurate forecasts for short and
long-term forecasting compared with other forecasting methods
Association Between Statin Use and Intracerebral Hemorrhage Location: A Nested Case-Control Registry Study
Barriers and opportunities of soil knowledge to address soil challenges: Stakeholders? perspectives across Europe
Climate-smart sustainable management of agricultural soil is critical to improve soil health, enhance food and water security, contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity preservation, and improve human health and wellbeing. The European Joint Programme for Soil (EJP SOIL) started in 2020 with the aim to significantly improve soil management knowledge and create a sustainable and integrated European soil research system. EJP SOIL involves more than 350 scientists across 24 Countries and has been addressing multiple aspects associated with soil management across different European agroecosystems. This study summarizes the key findings of stakeholder consultations conducted at the national level across 20 countries with the aim to identify important barriers and challenges currently affecting soil knowledge but also assess opportunities to overcome these obstacles. Our findings demonstrate that there is significant room for improvement in terms of knowledge production, dissemination and adoption. Among the most important barriers identified by consulted stakeholders are technical, political, social and economic obstacles, which strongly limit the development and full exploitation of the outcomes of soil research. The main soil challenge across consulted member states remains to improve soil organic matter and peat soil conservation while soil water storage capacity is a key challenge in Southern Europe. Findings from this study clearly suggest that going forward climate-smart sustainable soil management will benefit from (1) increases in research funding, (2) the maintenance and valorisation of long-term (field) ex-periments, (3) the creation of knowledge sharing networks and interlinked national and European in-frastructures, and (4) the development of regionally-tailored soil management strategies. All the above -mentioned interventions can contribute to the creation of healthy, resilient and sustainable soil ecosystems across Europe