Improving Ethiopian Smallholders’ Income and Food Security: An Assessment of Alternative Policy Options

Smallholder farmers dominate food production, but also represent the largest share of people in developing countries experiencing food insecurity. In Ethiopia, agricultural growth now forms the backbone of the country’s long-term plans for economic growth. This study aims to analyze long-term changes to the agricultural sector and its consequences for the evolution of smallholder farmers under various policy scenarios. A farming typology based on the agro-ecological zone, the dominant activities, and the degree of market integration is established for this purpose. The agro-ecological zone is divided into the rainfall-sufficient and drought prone highland areas and the pastoralist lowlands. Dominant activities are either pure livestock-keeping or a combination of crops and livestock. Market integration is based on the share of agricultural output sold to the market. The resulting typology is extrapolated to all regions of Ethiopia. The spatially differentiated typology is integrated in an Ethiopia-version of Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), a globally-consistent partial equilibrium model representing spatial land-use patterns and accounting for biophysical resource constraints. 19 crops (the standard GLOBIOM crops, teff, coffee and sesame), 4 animal types (cattle, sheep, goats and poultry) and 2 livestock products (milk and meat) are represented in the model. Projections of population and GDP growth per region are used to set up the initial demand for each product and each time step. Policies aiming to improve food security and reduce poverty are subsequently implemented. These include infrastructure and irrigation extensions as well as the improvement of access to fertilizers. Results show that the distribution of the farming systems changes across space and time under different policy scenarios. Impacts on smallholders’ poverty and food security status differ depending on the policy, enabling a spatially explicit assessment of policy options at both the local and national level

CoForTips Congo basin forests: tipping points for biodiversity conservation and resilience. Final Report (La modélisation des changements d’utilisation des terres dans les pays d’Afrique Centrale 2000-2030)

L'utilisation des terres est un facteur crucial pour le développement économique et l'environnement. Ainsi une terre dédiée à l’agriculture permettra une production régulière qui sera bénéfique pour satisfaire les besoins alimentaires des populations alentour et potentiellement, pour l’économie dans son ensemble. Par contre, les terres agricoles ont un contenu carbone bien inférieur à une terre forestière et sont généralement pauvres en biodiversité. Les terres peuvent être utilisées de différentes manières afin de répondre à différents objectifs et il peut être potentiellement difficile de satisfaire tous ces objectifs à la fois, donnant lieu à des choix difficiles lors de la conception des politiques. Les pays membres de la Commission des forêts d'Afrique centrale (COMIFAC) ont identifié l’initiative pour la réduction des émissions issues de la déforestation et de la dégradation forestière et l'amélioration des stocks de carbone (REDD+) comme un enjeu majeur dans la dernière revision du Plan de Convergence pour la Gestion Durable des Forêts, aux côtés de la conservation et de l’utilisation durable de la diversité biologique et de la réduction des impacts du changement climatique. Cette étude a pour objectif d’identifier les zones soumises aux pressions de conversion les plus fortes dans le futur et les conséquences en termes de production agricole, d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) et de risque de perte de biodiversité, avec pour but d’accompagner les institutions impliquées dans la REDD+ ainsi que dans la planification des Stratégies Nationales et Plans d’Action pour la Biodiversité dans les pays de la COMIFAC

Modelling Land Use Change in Brazil: 2000–2050

The input and output land cover dataset across all modelled time periods (2000-2050) and scenarios resulting from the work of the REDD-PAC project in Brazil. Please consult the data section of the REDD-PAC website (http://redd-pac.org/new_page.php?contents=data1.csv) to access a data visualization tool and to obtain the dataset in WFS format. This dataset can be accessed and displayed using GIS software such as QGIS. Please consult the metadata file for further instruction

Modelling Land Use Changes in the Republic of Congo 2000-2030 . A report by the REDD-PAC project.

This study is intended to assist institutions involved in REDD+ and the planning of National Strategies and Action plans for Biodiversity in the Republic of Congo by attempting to identify the areas under the greatest conversion pressures in the future and the consequences in terms of agricultural production, greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss.Cette étude essaye d’identifier les zones soumises aux pressions de conversion les plus fortes dans le futur et les conséquences en termes de production agricole, d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre et de risque de perte de biodiversité. L’objectif du projet REDD-PAC est d’accompagner les institutions impliquées dans la REDD+ ainsi que dans la planification de la Stratégie Nationale et du Plan d’Action pour la Biodiversité en République du Congo

Using models to inform policies to meet multiple objectives. Sustainable development, climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation in Central Africa

Land-use change models can help in developing a holistic understanding of the range of potential impacts of different land-use related policy options, and so strengthen the development and implementation of policies to meet a range of objectives; including sustainable development, climate change mitigation, food security and biodiversity conservation. Member countries of the Central Africa Forest Commission (COMIFAC) have committed to sustainable management of the region’s forests, including under the COMIFAC “Convergence Plan”, and to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving these objectives is dependent on the development, and implementation, of new and existing national policies and approaches. Projections from land-use modelling identify potential trade-offs and synergies in the achievement of the SDGs under different macro-economic and land-use policy related scenarios. In particular they highlight the importance of effective protected areas and forest concessions for the conservation of Great Apes and other threatened species, and show that maintaining these areas has negligible impact on agricultural production in the region. As development continues in the region, further increasing the extent of protected areas could play a role in greatly reducing the number of species losing a large proportion of their habitat. However, protected area expansion needs to be well planned to avoid adverse impacts on particular species and societal challenges such as food security