A nonparametric test of exogeneity

This paper is concerned with inference about a function g that is identified by a conditional moment restriction involving instrumental variables. The function is nonparametric. It satisfies mild regularity conditions but is otherwise unknown. The paper presents test of the hypothesis that g is the mean of a random variable Y conditional on a covariate X. The need to test this hypothesis arises frequently in economics. The test does not require nonparametric instrumental-variables (IV) estimation of g and is not subject to the ill-posed inverse problem that nonparametric IV estimation entails. The test is consistent whenever g differs from the conditional mean function of Y on a set of non-zero probability. Moreover, the power of the test is arbitrarily close to 1 uniformly over a set of functions g whose distance from the conditional mean function is O(n^{-1/2}) where n is the sample size

Wealth portfolios in the US and the UK

In this paper, we attempt to explain differences between the US and UK household wealth distributions, with an emphasis on the quite different porfolios held in stock and housing equities in the two countries. As a proportion of their total wealth, British households hold relatively small amounts of financial assets - including equities in stock - compared to American households. In contrast, British households appear to move into home ownership at relatively young ages and a large fraction of their household wealth is concentrated in houseing. Finally, the age gradient in home equity appears to be much steeper in the UK while US households exhibit a steeper age gradient in stock equity. We argue that the higher price housing price volatility in the UK combined with much younger entry into home ownership there are important factors accounting for the relatively small participation of young British householders in the stock market. We show it is important to acknowledge the dual role of housing - providing both wealth and consumption services - in understanding wealth accumulation differences between the US and the UK. Institutional differences, particularly in housing markets, that affect the demand and supply of housing services, turn out to be important in generating portfolio differences between the two countries. In particular, these differences in housing price risk imply steeper life-cycle accumulations in housing and less steep accumulation in stock equity over the life cycle in the UK

House Price Volatility and Housing Ownership over the Lifecycle

We develop and test a model on the effects of spatial housing price risk on housing choice. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, most people want to eventually own their home thereby creating an insurance demand for housing ownership early in life. With increasing demographic needs over the life cycle, our model predicts that people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, and should be less likely to refinance. These predictions are shown to hold using comparable panel data from the United States and United Kingdom. (JEL D12, D91

State pensions and the well-being of the elderly in the UK

This paper presents the trends seen over the last quarter of the 20thCentury in various indicators of the well-being of the elderlyalongside those seen for the young. Specifically we look at measuresof both the level and distribution of income and expenditure, andself-reported measures of life satisfaction and health. We thenexploit the substantial reforms to the UK pension system over thisperiod to examine the impact of reforms to state pensions on theseoutcomes. We find that increases in the generosity of state pensionshave led to increased incomes of the elderly and reductions inmeasures of both relative and absolute income poverty. We also findthat increased state pensions have led to increased expenditure bythe elderly. It is perhaps not surprising that in the UK the reformsto the generosity of state pensions have affected outcomes amongthe elderly (instead of being fully offset by individuals when theywere younger) given that often very little (pre-retirement) notice wasgiven, and that some of the reforms were of a substantial magnitude. This paper presents the trends seen over the last quarter of the 20thCentury in various indicators of the well-being of the elderlyalongside those seen for the young. Specifically we look at measuresof both the level and distribution of income and expenditure, andself-reported measures of life satisfaction and health. We thenexploit the substantial reforms to the UK pension system over thisperiod to examine the impact of reforms to state pensions on theseoutcomes. We find that increases in the generosity of state pensionshave led to increased incomes of the elderly and reductions inmeasures of both relative and absolute income poverty. We also findthat increased state pensions have led to increased expenditure bythe elderly. It is perhaps not surprising that in the UK the reformsto the generosity of state pensions have affected outcomes amongthe elderly (instead of being fully offset by individuals when theywere younger) given that often very little (pre-retirement) notice wasgiven, and that some of the reforms were of a substantial magnitude

Housing price volatility and downsizing in later life

In this paper, we modeled several types of housing transitions of the elderly in two countries -- Britain and the United States. One important form of these transitions involves downsizing of housing consumption, the importance of which among older households is still debated. This downsizing takes multiple forms, including reductions in the number of rooms per dwelling and the value of the home. There is also evidence that this downsizing is greater when house price volatility is greater and that American households try to escape housing price volatility by moving to places that are experience significantly less housing price volatility. Our comparative evidence in suggests that there is less evidence of downsizing in Britain. Our results indicate that housing consumption appears to decline with age in the US, even after controlling for the other demographic and work transitions associated with age that would normally produce such a decline. No such fall in housing consumption is found in Britain, largely because British households are much more likely to stay in their original residence