The Open Economy Consequences of U.S. Monetary Policy

We characterize the channels by which a failure to distinguish intended/unintended and anticipated/unanticipated monetary policy may lead to attenuation bias in monetary policy's open economy effects. Using a U.S. monetary policy measure which isolates the intended and unanticipated component of federal funds rate changes, we quantify the magnitude of the attenuation bias for the exchange rate and foreign variables, finding it to be substantial. The exchange rate appreciation following a monetary contraction is up to 4 times larger than a recursively-identified VAR estimate. There is stronger evidence of foreign interest rate pass-through. The expenditure-reducing effects of a U.S. monetary policy contraction dominate any expenditure-switching effects, leading to a positive conditional correlation of international outputs and prices.

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: New Evidence from the Narrative Approach to Shock Identification

We argue that endogenous and anticipated movements in interest rates lead to underestimates of the speed and magnitude of the exchange rate response to monetary policy. Employing the Romer and Romer (2004) exogenous monetary policy shock measure, we find that the effect of a one percentage point increase in the U.S. interest rate is up to twice as large and 3 times as fast as that obtained using the actual federal funds rate to identify monetary shocks. Moreover, new evidence from open economy VARs emphasises the adjustment role of the exchange rate. U.S. prices and output respond almost twice as quickly as they do in a closed economy VAR using the Romer and Romber shock measure. There is also evidence of stronger international transmission of U.S. monetary shocks. Overall, the estimated response speeds and magnitudes are more easily reconciled with existing models than previous empirical work.monetary policy shocks, exchange rate dynamics, open economy VARs

Education and Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Purerto Rico

The existence of intergenerational spillovers to public investments in schooling is often assumed in policy discussions regarding economic development. However, few studies to date have forwarded convincing evidence that externalities exist for developing countries. In this paper, we address this issue using the arguably exogenous schooling consequences of a major hurricane strike on Puerto Rico in the 1950s. Using data from the US. Census of Population for Puerto Rico, we first find that individuals on to margin of school entry at the time of the storm and residing in the most exposed regions of the island had significantly lower levels of education as adults than their counterparts in less exposed regions. Using the interaction of wind speed and age at the time of the storm as an instrument, we then find that maternal education is related to the probability that a child speaks English. Our estimates imply an additional year of education raise the probability that a child speaks English by between 4.3 and 4.5 percentage points, c approximately 24 to 28 percent. We find no conclusive evidence that parental education increases the probability that a child is enrolled, literate, or in an age-appropriate grad, On balance, these findings suggest that education is responsible at least in part for the persistence of human capital across generations.education, intergenerational mobility, natural experiment, hurricane

The long-lived effects of historic climate on the wealth of nations

We investigate the long-run consequences of historic, climatic temperatures (1730-2000) for the modern cross-country income distribution. Using a newly constructed dataset of climatic temperatures stretching over three centuries (18th, 19th, and 20th), we estimate a robust and significant time-varying, non-monotonic effect of climatic temperature upon current incomes for a cross-section of 167 countries. We find a large, positive effect of 18th century climatic temperature and an even larger, negative effect of 19th century climatic temperature upon current incomes. When historic, climatic temperature is introduced, the effect of 20th century climatic temperature on current income is either weakly positive or insignificant. Our findings are robust to various sub-samples, additional geographic controls, and alternative income measures. The negative relationship between current, climatic temperature and current income that is commonly estimated appears to reflect the long-run effect of climatic variations in the 18th and 19th centuries. <br><br> Keywords; climate, temperature, economic performance, geography, history JEL codes: N50, O11, O40, O50, O57

Yahweh Versus Baalism: A Theological Reading of the Gideon-Abimelech Narrative

This study attempts to describe the contribution of the Abimelech narrative for the theology of Judges. It is claimed that the Gideon narrative and the Abimelech narrative need to be viewed as one narrative that focuses on the demonstration of YHWH'S superiority over Baalism, and that the deliverance from the Midianites in the Gideon narrative, Abimelech's kingship, and the theme of retribution in the Abimelech narrative serve as the tangible matter by which the abstract theological theme becomes narratable. The introduction to the Gideon narrative, which focuses on Israel's idolatry in a previously unparalleled way in Judges, anticipates a theological narrative to demonstrate that YHWH is god. YHWH's prophet defines the general theological background and theme for the narrative by accusing Israel of having abandoned YHWH despite his deeds in their history and having worshipped foreign gods instead. YHWH calls Gideon to demolish the idolatrous objects of Baalism in response, so that Baalism becomes an example of any idolatrous cult. Joash as the representative of Baalism specifies the defined theme by proposing that whichever god demonstrates his divine power shall be recognised as god. The following episodes of the battle against the Midianites contrast Gideon's inadequate resources with his selfish attempt to be honoured for the victory, assign the victory to YHWH,w ho remains in control and who thus demonstrates his divine power, and show that Baal is not present in the narrative. Yet Gideon continues the battle against the Midianites on his own in the narrative complication, which culminates in Gideon's establishment of idolatry, shows that YHWH is still in control, and sets the background for the Abimelech narrative. Following the introduction of Israel's idolatry, the focus of the Abimelech narrative on Baal and Shechem defines them as examples of Israel's general idolatry. Abimelech is crowned on a Baalist basis and becomes Baal's chief representative. The theological theme is specified and its effect for the narrative outlined by Jotham as YHWH's representative; Abimelech's success or failure as king will show Baal's power or absence. The following episodes suggest that Baal is not present at all, that Baalism is a selfdestructive religion, and that YHWH is in control of the mutual destruction of the Baal worshippers, who are nevertheless held accountable. By the end of the Gideon-Abimelech narrative the narrator has demonstrated YHWH'S supreme power to deliver Israel from their enemies, his permanent control over the events, the inability of man to accomplish YHWH's work on their own, the absence of other gods, and the self-destructive force of idolatry. Therefore, YHWH is god and should be worshipped as god

Time crawls when you’re not having fun: Feeling entitled makes dull tasks drag on

All people have to complete dull tasks, but individuals who feel entitled may be more inclined to perceive them as a waste of their "precious" time, resulting in the perception that time drags.This hypothesis was confirmed in three studies.In Study 1, participants with higher trait entitlement (controlling for related variables) thought dull tasks took longer to complete; no link was found for fun tasks.In Study 2, participants exposed to entitled messages thought taking a dull survey was a greater waste of time and took longer to complete.In Study 3, participants subliminally exposed to entitled words thought dull tasks were less interesting, thought they took longer to complete, and walked away faster when leaving the laboratory.Like most resources, time is a resource valued more by entitled individuals.A time-entitlement link provides novel insight into mechanisms underlying self-focus and prosocial dynamics. © 2011 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc

The Importance of Time Congruity in the Organisation.

In 1991 Kaufman, Lane, and Lindquist proposed that time congruity in terms of an individual's time preferences and the time use methods of an organisation would lead to satisfactory performance and enhancement of quality of work and general life. The research reported here presents a study which uses commensurate person and job measures of time personality in an organisational setting to assess the effects of time congruity on one aspect of work life, job-related affective well-being. Results show that time personality and time congruity were found to have direct effects on well-being and the influence of time congruity was found to be mediated through time personality, thus contributing to the person–job (P–J) fit literature which suggests that direct effects are often more important than indirect effects. The study also provides some practical examples of ways to address some of the previously cited methodological issues in P–J fit research