Selective cooling of the brain in reindeer

Selective cooling of the brain during hyper-thermia has been demonstrated in several species of mammals (Baker 1979, 1982). Such cooling is achieved by heat exchange between the cooled venous blood returning from the nasal mucosa and the warmer arterial blood entering the brain via the carotid rete. Spot measurements of brain temperature (Tbr) and carotid blood temperature (TCar) were made within 1 min. of death in 40 wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus). At Tear lower than 40.5°C Tbr was higher than T c a r. With increasing Tear above 40.5°C Tbr remained at approxima-tely 40.5°C, indicating that selective cooling of the brain had occurred

Comparing the effect of STan (cardiotocographic electronic fetal monitoring (CTG) plus analysis of the ST segment of the fetal electrocardiogram) with CTG alone on emergency caesarean section rates: study protocol for the STan Australian Randomised controlled Trial (START).

BACKGROUND: Cardiotocography is almost ubiquitous in its use in intrapartum care. Although it has been demonstrated that there is some benefit from continuous intrapartum fetal monitoring using cardiotocography, there is also an increased risk of caesarean section which is accompanied by short-term and long-term risks to the mother and child. There is considerable potential to reduce unnecessary operative delivery with up to a 60% false positive diagnosis of fetal distress using cardiotocography alone. ST analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram is a promising adjunct to cardiotocography alone, and permits detection of metabolic acidosis of the fetus, potentially reducing false positive diagnosis of fetal distress. METHODS: This study will be a single-centre, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial, conducted over 3 years. The primary hypothesis will be that the proportion of women with an emergency caesarean section on ST analysis will not equal that for women on cardiotocography monitoring alone. Participants will be recruited at the Women's and Children's Hospital, a high-risk specialty facility with approximately 5000 deliveries per annum. A total of 1818 women will be randomised to the treatment or conventional arm with an allocation ratio of 1:1, stratified by parity. The primary outcome is emergency caesarean section (yes/no). Statistical analysis will follow standard methods for randomised trials and will be performed on an intention-to-treat basis. Secondary maternal and neonatal outcomes will also be analysed. Additional study outcomes include psychosocial outcomes, patient preferences and cost-effectiveness. DISCUSSION: Approximately 20% of Australian babies are delivered by emergency caesarean section. This will be the first Australian trial to examine ST analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram as an adjunct to cardiotocography as a potential method for reducing this proportion. The trial will be among the first to comprehensively examine ST analysis, taking into account the impact on psychosocial well-being as well as cost-effectiveness. This research will provide Australian evidence for clinical practice and guideline development as well as for policy-makers and consumers to make informed, evidence-based choices about care in labour. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ANZCTR, ACTRN1261800006268 . Registered on 19 January 2018

Adjusting for Information Content When Comparing Forecast Performance

Cross institutional forecast evaluations may be severely distorted by the fact that forecasts are made at different points in time, and thus with different amount of information. This paper proposes a method to account for these differences. The method computes the timing effect and the forecaster's ability simultaneously. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that evaluations that do not adjust for the differences in information content may be misleading. In addition, the method is applied on a real-world data set of 10 Swedish forecasters for the period 1999-2015. The results show that the ranking of the forecasters is affected by the proposed adjustment

The Information Content of Central Bank Minutes

One characteristic feature of central banks today is that policy decisions are almost exclusively made by a committee rather than by a single policy maker. Another is that central banks are considerably more transparent than they used to be. Together, this has brought to the fore an important but so far unresolved issue: to what extent should a central bank's communication reflect the full spectrum of opinions among its committee members? Does information on all members views make monetary policy easier to understand and predict, or does it make it harder? We address this issue by employing a novel method. We measure the sentiment and tone of the minutes of the Swedish central bank using an automated content analysis that converts the qualitative information in the minutes to a quantitative measure. We find that this measure is useful in predicting future policy rate decisions