Snowmelt onset over Arctic sea ice from passive microwave satellite data: 1979–2012

An updated version (Version 3) of the Snow Melt Onset Over Arctic Sea Ice from SMMR (Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer) and SSM/I-SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager-Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) Brightness Temperatures data set is now available. The data record has been reprocessed and extended to cover the years 1979–2012. From this data set, a statistical summary of melt onset (MO) dates on Arctic sea ice is presented. The mean MO date for the Arctic Region is 13 May (132.5 DOY – day of year) with a standard deviation of ±7.3 days. Regionally, mean MO dates vary from 15 March (73.2 DOY) in the St. Lawrence Gulf to 10 June (160.9 DOY) in the Central Arctic. Statistically significant decadal trends indicate that MO is occurring 6.6 days decade-1 earlier in the year for the Arctic Region. Regionally, MO trends are as great as -11.8 days decade-1 in the East Siberian Sea. The Bering Sea is an outlier and MO is occurring 3.1 days decade-1 later in the year

A Bio-Logical Theory of Animal Learning

This article provides the foundation for a new predictive theory of animal learning that is based upon a simple logical model. The knowledge of experimental subjects at a given time is described using logical equations. These logical equations are then used to predict a subject’s response when presented with a known or a previously unknown situation. This new theory suc- cessfully anticipates phenomena that existing theories predict, as well as phenomena that they cannot. It provides a theoretical account for phenomena that are beyond the domain of existing models, such as extinction and the detection of novelty, from which “external inhibition” can be explained. Examples of the methods applied to make predictions are given using previously published results. The present theory proposes a new way to envision the minimal functions of the nervous system, and provides possible new insights into the way that brains ultimately create and use knowledge about the world

Prolongation of overall treatment time as a cause of treatment failure in early breast cancer: an analysis of the UK START (Standardisation of Breast Radiotherapy) trials of radiotherapy fractionation

AbstractBackgroundTests of tumour treatment time effect in patients prescribed post-operative radiotherapy for early breast cancer have focussed on time to start of radiotherapy rather than overall treatment time. The START randomised trials of radiotherapy fractionation provide an opportunity to directly estimate the effect of treatment acceleration.MethodsBetween 1986 and 2002, a total of 5861 women with early breast cancer were recruited into the UK START pilot (START-P), START-A and START-B randomised trials. START-P and START-A tested 13 fractions of 3.0–3.3Gy against 25 fractions of 2.0Gy with a fixed treatment duration of 5weeks for all schedules; START-B tested 15 fractions of 2.67Gy in 3weeks against 25 fractions of 2.0Gy over 5weeks. Estimates of the effect of length of treatment for local–regional relapse and for a measure of late normal tissue effects (change in photographic breast appearance, for patients following breast conserving surgery) were obtained from Cox proportional hazards regression analyses stratified according to trial.ResultsAt a median follow-up of 10years, 444/5831 (7.6%) patients with data available had a local–regional relapse, and 1135/3185 (35.6%) had mild or marked change in photographic breast appearance by 5years. Adjusting for prognostic factors, the estimate of the overall treatment time effect for local–regional relapse was 0.60Gy/day (95%CI 0.10 to 1.18Gy/day, p=0.02), and 0.14Gy/day (95%CI −0.09 to 0.34Gy/day, p=0.29) for change in photographic breast appearance.ConclusionsCombined analysis of the START trials generates the hypothesis that overall treatment time is a significant determinant of local cancer control after adjuvant whole breast radiotherapy, with approximately 0.6Gy per day ‘wasted’ in compensating for tumour cell proliferation

An Evolutionary Algorithm Approach to Link Prediction in Dynamic Social Networks

Many real world, complex phenomena have underlying structures of evolving networks where nodes and links are added and removed over time. A central scientific challenge is the description and explanation of network dynamics, with a key test being the prediction of short and long term changes. For the problem of short-term link prediction, existing methods attempt to determine neighborhood metrics that correlate with the appearance of a link in the next observation period. Recent work has suggested that the incorporation of topological features and node attributes can improve link prediction. We provide an approach to predicting future links by applying the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) to optimize weights which are used in a linear combination of sixteen neighborhood and node similarity indices. We examine a large dynamic social network with over $10^6$ nodes (Twitter reciprocal reply networks), both as a test of our general method and as a problem of scientific interest in itself. Our method exhibits fast convergence and high levels of precision for the top twenty predicted links. Based on our findings, we suggest possible factors which may be driving the evolution of Twitter reciprocal reply networks.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, 4 tables, Submitted to the Journal of Computational Scienc

Domestic Rivalry and Export Performance: Theory and Evidence from International Airline Markets

The much-studied relationship between domestic rivalry and export performance consists of those supporting a national-champion rationale, and those supporting a rivalry rationale. While the empirical literature generally supports the positive effects of domestic rivalry, the national-champion rationale actually rests on firmer theoretical ground. We address this inconsistency by providing a theoretical framework that illustrates three paths via which domestic rivalry translates into enhanced international exports. Furthermore, empirical tests on the world airline industry elicit the existence of one particular path - an enhanced firm performance effect - that connects domestic rivalry with improved international exports