Methodological Aspects of Environmental Labour Market Analysis

High and persistent unemployment rates and increasing awareness of environmental degradation in many industrial countries have promoted the interest in the labour market effects of environmental policy. Environmental labour market analysis is fraught with many difficulties, however. Being unaware of these problems may result in misunderstandings and mislead policy makers. In environmental labour market analysis two kinds of questions have to be distinguished: firstly, accounting for the number of persons working directly or indirectly for environmental protection activities and secondly, identifying the net effect of environmental policy on the labour market balance. Answering the first question is not conceptionally contentious. However, elaborating quantitative estimates poses a variety of problems of delimitation and data collection which are discussed in some detail in section 2. This section also presents the results of studies assessing environmental employment in Germany in various dimensions. Section 3 deals with problems arising when one attempts to answer the question of how many additional jobs are created through environmental policies. This requires an assessment of secondary economic effects of environmental policy the size and even the direction of which depend on a variety of framework conditions in a complex way. Quantitative estimates can only be based on model simulations; thus the features of the models applied become crucial for the results. Some rules for making such estimates are discussed. The most important mechanisms to be taken into account are presented. Some examples of empirical studies for Germany are presented in order to illustrate the argument. The most important conclusion we draw is that the delimitations, methods and assumptions underlying any estimates of the labour market effects of environmental policy have to be clearly stated.

Global Demand for Environmental Goods and Services on the Rise: Good Growth Opportunities for German Suppliers

According to conservative calculations, over $580 billion was spent worldwide on environmental goods and services and renewable energy technologies1 in 2004. So-called "green spending" is set for strong growth in the future on account of the long-term expansion of the global economy and mounting environmental challenges. Significant opportunities for growth and employment in Germany are also offered by forecasted trends in the market for green technologies. DIW Berlin has developed a method to quantify future global demand for environmental goods and services based on alternative economic scenarios. The method places a key focus on the international trade of environmental goods and services. Our calculations predict that the effective annual demand for environmental goods and services in Germany will increase from$75 billion in 2004 to between $106 and 171 billion by 2020 (at 2004 prices and exchange rates).The high growth in German exports is responsible in particular for this trend. Nevertheless, sensitivity calculations indicate that demand could also grow at a much slower rate through 2020 under unfavorable economic conditions.Environmental Goods and Services Sector, World Trade, Scenarios

LONG-TERM MACRO ECONOMIC MODELLING OF THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY TO ANALYSE THE EFFECTS OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

The middle and long-term forecasts of the economy for transition countries is an important challenge in order to understand better the effects of anticipated changes. During the accession negotiation between Bulgaria and the EU the continuation of the Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant was a major stake both for Bulgaria and for the EU, such that various different options have been intensively discussed. In order to establish a transparent and factual basis different aspects have been analysed among which the consequences of the energy sector, in the local and over-regional economy, in social and environmental aspects. During the process of analysis it appeared appropriate and useful to analyse in-depth also the complex effects on the macro-economy of Bulgaria. In particular, negative and positive effects triggered in sectors others than the energy sector was to be evaluated. For this purpose a macroeconometric model INFORBG of the Bulgarian economy was developed. The model is disaggregated into 14 economic sectors. It represents the system of national accounts and describes the interdependent developments of some 250 macroeconomic variables. Thus it permits to set up consistent quantitative scenarios. In order to assess the macroeconomic consequences of an early closure two scenarios – one describing a deferred closure and the other one describing an early closure - were compared with each other. The model and its calculation results demonstrated a good example for practical use of macro-economic models in analysing anticipated changes in the economy of transition countries.Macro Economic, Bulgarian Economy, Energy

Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Expansion: A Model-Based Analysis for Germany

Increasing utilization of renewable energy sources (RES) is a priority worldwide. Germany has been a forerunner in the deployment of RES and has ambitious goals for the future. The support and use of renewables affects the economy: It creates business opportunities in sectors producing renewable energy facilities, but also comes along with costs for supporting the deployment of renewables. This paper analyses and quantifies the net balance of economic effects associated with renewable energy deployment in Germany until 2030. To this end, we use a novel model, the 'Sectoral Energy-Economic Econometric Model' (SEEEM). SEEEM is an econometric multi-country model which, for Germany, contains a detailed representation of industries, including 14 renewable energy technology sectors. Our results show that renewable energy expansion can be achieved without compromising growth or employment. The analysis reveals a positive net effect on economic growth in Germany. Net employment effects are positive. Their size depends strongly on labour market conditions and policies. Results at the industry level indicate the size and direction of the need for restructuring across the sectors of the Germany economy.

Economic Opportunities and Structural Effects of Sustainable Energy Supply

Renewable energy sources and increased energy efficiency are not only crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other negative impacts of conventional energy supply; they also hold enormous economic opportunity. Significant and dynamically growing sectors have emerged in the area of renewable energy over the last several years. In 2010, 26.6 billion euros were invested in Germany alone in renewable energy facilities. Altogether, renewable energy sources created 35.5 billion euros in demand for the German economy. Gross employment in the area of renewable energy is estimated at 367,400 persons for 2010. Likewise, the net economic balance for the expansion of renewables is positive. Model calculations conducted by DIW Berlin show that the gross domestic product is by 2.9 percent higher in 2030 in the "Expansion Scenario" than following a "Null Scenario" with no expansion. Depending on the labor market conditions, the net employment effects appear to be weak to moderate, but in any case positive. These scenario calculations also illustrate that the impact of the expansion differs across sectors. Furthermore, the transition from the current energy supply regime to one where renewable energy sources contribute a large share and energy efficiency has been substantially increased will require a structural change in business and the working world that will have to be followed closely in the future.Renewable energy, economic impacts, structural change, Germany

Environment-Economy Integration for Land Maintenance Approaches to Heavy Metal Pollution in the Ruhr Area and in Katowice Voivodship

The present paper synthesizes the results of the Ruhr-Katowice Comparison Project. This research was conducted at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) between 1994 and 1996 as part of an Industrial Metabolism project which focused on the impacts from production, use and disposal of materials containing metals on soils in the Upper Basins of the Elbe and Oder rivers. Using tools of analysis and soil science this project traced the sources, flows, and accumulations of heavy metals. The Ruhr-Katowice Comparison Project aimed at a better understanding of policy options for reducing heavy metal contamination and managing heavy metal contaminated soils. The Ruhr area in Germany and Katowice Voivodship in Poland are the two hot spots in Europe of heavy metal pollution. They have many economic features in common due to the historical orientation of their economies on coal and heavy industries. They differ with respect to environmental policies, however. Pollution has been largely mitigated in the Ruhr area by measures that started in the 1960s while hardly any emphasis was given to environmental protection in Poland before the 1990s. The Ruhr-Katowice Comparison Project analyzed the role of environmental policies from the perspective of soil protection and identified the key elements that led to the historical reduction of atmospheric heavy metal emissions in the Ruhr area. A complementary analysis was performed on current efforts directed towards environmental clean-up in the Katowice Voivodship. This study takes an economic point of view. Economic analysis of environmental policy compares the cost and benefits of different policy options. As a comprehensive empirical cost-benefit analysis is not feasible, an assessment is made based on concept of environment -- economy integration. This notion describes attempts to design policies with proper regard to the interrelationships that exist between the environment and the economy in order to exploit synergies or to minimize conflicts between environmental and economic objectives. Six dimensions of integration are distinguished which represent different, though not independent, strategies to coordinate environmental and economic objectives. Requirements are derived which policies have to correspond to in order to promote environment-economy integration. These requirements are used as criteria for an assessment of historical policies in the Ruhr area and current approaches in the Katowice Voivodship. Based on the identification of the successes as well as the failures of efforts in the Ruhr area and the strengths and deficits of current approaches in Katowice guidelines are proposed for improving environment -- economy integration for land maintenance. The results presented in the present paper are summarized from a series of studies commissioned for the Ruhr-Katowice Comparison Project; they are referenced throughout the text and marked in the list of references. The results of the commissioned studies were discussed at two workshops held at IIASA. The Ruhr-Katowice Comparison Project yielded four main results: first, it contributes to the methodology of assessing policy options by developing and applying the concept of environment -- economy integration. Second, it yields a historical review of the beginning of systematic environmental polices in the Ruhr area. Third, gives an overview of current approaches to managing heavy metal pollution in the Katowice Voivodship. Last but not least it proposes a set of guidelines for the integration of environmental and economic objectives in land management

Weltweite Nachfrage nach Umwelt- und Klimaschutzgütern steigt: gute Wachstumschancen für deutsche Anbieter

Die weltweiten Ausgaben für Umweltschutzgüter und Investitionen in erneuerbare Energien beliefen sich im Jahr 2004 auf über 580 Milliarden US-Dollar - konservativ gerechnet. Aufgrund des langfristigen Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft und zunehmender ökologischer Herausforderungen werden die Ausgaben in Zukunft stark wachsen. Daraus ergeben sich für Deutschland erhebliche Chancen für Wachstum und Beschäftigung. Das DIW Berlin hat jetzt ein methodisches Verfahren entwickelt, das die zukünftige weltweite Nachfrage nach Umweltschutzgütern in ökonomischen Szenarien quantifiziert. Dabei wird vor allem auch der internationale Handel mit solchen Gütern analysiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die in Deutschland wirksame Nachfrage nach Umwelt- und Klimaschutzgütern von derzeit rund 75 Milliarden US-Dollar bis zum Jahr 2020 auf 106 bis 171 Milliarden zunehmen dürfte (zu Preisen und Wechselkursen von 2004). Die Dynamik ergibt sich insbesondere aus der Entwicklung der deutschen Exporte. Sensitivitätsrechnungen weisen darauf hin, dass diese unter ungünstigen Bedingungen auch geringer ausfallen können.Environmental Goods and Services Sector, World Trade, Scenarios

Arbeit und Ökologie: Ein neues Forschungsprogramm

Die Gewerkschaften haben im DGB-Grundsatzprogramm von 1996 die Gestaltung einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung zu einer wichtigen Aufgabe erklärt. lhre Suche nach einer sozial-ökologischen Reformstrategie steht unter der Prämisse, daß ökonomische, ökologische und soziale Nachhaltigkeitsziele gleichwertig verfolgt werden müssen, wobei erhebliche Defizite bei der Berücksichtigung der sozialen Dimension von Nachhaltigkeitskonzepten konstatiert werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund haben sich die drei Forschungsinstitute DIW, WI und WZB mit ihren jeweils spezifischen fachlichen Kompetenzbereichen zum Forschungsprojektverbund "Arbeit und Ökologie" zusammengetan. Dessen Hauptziel ist es, soziale und arbeitspolitische Aspekte in ihrer Wechselwirkung mit zentralen Elementen von unterschiedlich akzentuierten Nachhaltigkeitskonzepten zu untersuchen. Damit soll die Diskussion in Deutschland mit neuen Aspekten belebt und den Gewerkschaften eine fundierte Grundlage für ihren Strategiebildungsprozeß geboten werden. Dabei wird sich das Forschungsprojekt auf drei Leitfragestellungen konzentrieren: (1) das Verhältnis zwischen den sozialen Implikationen von Nachhaltigkeitsstrategien und gewerkschaftlichen Zielen, (2) die Bausteine einer sozial-ökologischen Reformstrategie und (3) die Rolle der deutschen Gewerkschaften in einem gesellschaftlichen Nachhaltigkeitsdiskurs. Das Projekt ist in die folgenden drei, zeitlich gestaffelten Phasen gegliedert: Querschnittsanalysen: Sie dienen der Erfassung und Klärung der vielfaltigen Wechselbeziehungen zwischen Nachhaltigkeit und Arbeit, die sich aus ökonomischer, sozialer und ökologischer Sicht ergeben. Hierbei wird es auf der Makroebene etwa um Fragen von Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigungsentwicklung, sozialer Sicherheit und Ressourcenverbrauch gehen; auf der Mikroebene werden neue Arbeitsverhältnisse und Arbeitszeiten, das Verhältnis von formeller und informeller Arbeit, sowie sozialökologische Innovationspotentiale untersucht. Die Analyseergebnisse sollen Grundlagen für die Beurteilung von Szenarien schaffen und die Formulierung von Strategien unterstützen. Szenarioanalysen: Um dem Spektrum verschiedener Positionen in der Nachhaltigkeitsdiskussion gerecht zu werden, sollen zwei unterschiedliche Nachhaltigkeitsszenarien entwickelt und analysiert werden. Das sogenannte ökonomisch- soziale Szenario geht von der ökonomischen Kritik an der vorherrschenden Wirtschaftspolitik aus, während das sogenannte ökologisch-soziale Szenario auf der ökologischen Kritik vorherrschender umweltrelevanter Politikmuster basiert. Als Hintergrundfolie für die Beurteilung dieser beiden Nachhaltigkeitsszenarien dient ein sog. angebots orientiertes Kontrastszenario, das auf einer Fortschreibung bisher dominierender wirtschaftspolitischer Konzepte beruht. Erarbeitung von Strategieelementen: Die Bewertung der Szenarien nach (aus den Querschnittsanalysen gewonnenen) ökonomischen, ökologischen und sozialen Kriterien soll Zielkonflikte und - Synergien aufdecken und damit der Strategieformulierung dienen. Diese können - gemeinsam mit weiteren Strategieelementen, die aus der Analyse von Konfliktpotentialen und aus den Querschnittsanalysen gewonnen wurden - einen Beitrag für die Entwicklung einer gewerkschaftlichen sozial-ökologischen Reformstrategie liefern. -- In its Basic Programme published in 1996, the German trade union movement declared the shaping of a sustainable development to be an important task. The trade unions seek to pursue a social-ecological reform strategy that takes account of the need to strike a balance between economic, ecological and social sustainability objectives, while serious deficits in the consideration of social dimension of concepts of sustainable are being stated. Against this background, three research institutions (DIW, WI and WZB) with their complementary specialist qualifications and know-how in the relevant disciplines have joined to the Research Network Project "Work and Ecology". Their major objective is to analyse social and labour-related aspects in correlation with central elements of various sustainable development concepts in different perspectives. This aims at stimulating the German discussion with new arguments and establishing a solid base for strategybuilding-process ofthe trade unions. The research project will concentrate on three guiding questions: (I) The relationship between the social implications of sustainability strategies and trade union goals; (2) possible building blocks in a social-ecological reform strategy and (3) the role of German trade unions in a social discourse on sustainability. The project is planned to be accomplished in three main broadly successive working phases: Cross-sectional analyses: The aim of the cross-sectional analyses is to determine and specify the various linkages and interrelationships between sustainability and work seen from an economic, social and ecological perspective. This implies e. g. focussing on questions such as economic growth, the development of employment, social security and resource use on a macro-Ievel, and questions of new labour relations and working time, the relation between formal and informal work and social-ecologial innovation potentials on a micro-Ievel. The cross-sectional analyses are both to provide a basis for drawing up and evaluating the scenarios and to generate findings that can help directly in formulating social-ecological strategy elements. Scenario analyses: In order to take account of the spectrum of positions held in the debate on sustainable development concepts, the research project is to develop and analyse an economic-social and an ecological-social sustainability scenario. The so-called economic-social sustainable development scenario takes up the economic critique of the predominant one-sided orientation of economic policy to the supply side, while the socalled ecological-social sustainable development scenario is based on the critique of the prevailing policy approach regarding the environment. A supply-side scenario based on an extrapolation of the supply-side economic policy concepts, that have been predominant in German politics, will serve as the background evaluationpattern for the two sustainabilty scenarios.

Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien erhöht Wirtschaftsleistung in Deutschland

Der starke Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien führt in Deutschland zu Nachfrageimpulsen und verringert die Einfuhr konventioneller Brennstoffe. Allerdings sind mit dem Ausbau auch gegenläufige Substitutions- und Kosteneffekte verbunden, die für sich genommen die Konsummöglichkeiten vermindern können. Das DIW Berlin hat die volkswirtschaftliche Nettobilanz dieser Wirkungen bis zum Jahr 2030 mit einem neu entwickelten Modell untersucht. Aus dieser Analyse ergeben sich positive ökonomische Nettoeffekte: Das Wirtschaftswachstum ist deutlich höher als in einem Szenario ohne erneuerbare Energien. Dies wirkt sich auch positiv auf die Beschäftigung aus.Renewable energy, Econometric modelling, Employment effects, Germany