Proxying for Expected Returns with Price Earnings Ratios

Long-run regression models using the trailing earnings over price ratio to predict future returns suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988, 2001) work quite well. However, in this note we show that this variable might result in a downward biased proxy for expected future returns. Instead we suggest using a moving average of the log of 1 plus the earnings price ratio when forecasting long-run returns. The empirical results for the S&P 500 show the superiority of our approach to existing ones.Earnings yield, Stock Return, Forecasting

Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets

The question of long-run predictability in the aggregate US stock market is still unsettled. This is due to the lack of a robust method to judge the statistical significance of long-run regressions under the maintained hypothesis. By developing a spectral theory of long-run regressions with both long-run dependent and independent variables, we demonstrate a version of Engle's (1974) conjecture that asymptotically correct standard errors can be computed by multiplying the ordinary least squares standard errors by the square root of 2/3 times the length of the forecast horizon. We generalize Stambaugh's (1999) bias formula to the long-run regression model proposed in this paper. In addition, we find, that for persistent predictive variables, the OLS estimator in our regression model is more efficient than the estimator in the predictive regressions suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988) and Hodrick (1992). Application of our method shows thatthe long-run earnings yield significantly predicts up to 69% of the variation in the 10-year S&P 500 real return, and up to 49% of long-run bond returns.Forecasting, stock returns, spectral analysis, Hansen-Hodrick standard errors

FLUORESCENCE AND CIRCULAR DICHROISM STUDIES ON THE PHYCOERYTHROCYANINS FROM THE CYANOBACTERIUM

Two phycoerythrocyanin (PEC) fractions have been obtained from the phycobilisomes of the cyanobac-terium Westiellopsis prolifica ARM 365. They have been characterized by absorption, fluorescence and circular dichroism spectroscopy. One of them is spectroscopically similar to a PEC trimer known from other organisms. Whereas efficient energy transfer from its violin (α-84) to the cyanin (β-84, 155) chromophores is efficient in the trimer (αβ it is impeded after dissociation to the monomer (α,β). A second fraction of PEC which we earlier termed PEC(X) (Maruthi Sai et al., Photochem. Photobiol. 55,119–124, 1992), exhibited the spectral properties similar to that of the α-subunit of PEC from Mastigocladus laminosus. With this highly photoactive fraction, the circular dichroism spectra of the violobilin chromophore in both photoreversible states were obtained

TWO DIFFERENT TYPES OF PHOTOCHEMISTRY IN PHYCOERYTHROCYANIN α-SUBUNIT

The photochemical activities of phycoerythrocyanin α-subunits from Mastigocladus laminosus separated by isoelectric focusing were tested by irradiating at 500, 550, 577 and 600 nm. Two types of photoreversible photochromic responses have been characterized by absorption and absorption difference spectroscopy. Type I is the well-known absorption shift from 571 to 506 nm. Type II is a new response characterized by a line-broadening of the 570 nm absorption

PHOTOCHEMISTRY OF PHYCOBILIPROTEINS

Native PEC from the cyanobacterium, Mastigocladus laminosus, and its isolated α-subunit show photoreversibly photochromic reactions with difference-maxima around 502 and 570 nm in the spectral region of the α-84 phycoviolobilin chromophore. (b) Native PEC and its β-subunit show little if any reversible photochemistry in the 600–620 nm region, where the phycocyanobilin chromophores on the β-subunit absorb maximally, (c) Reversible photochemistry is retained in ureadenatured PEC at pH = 7.0 or pH ≤ 3. The difference maxima are shifted to 510 and 600 nm, and the amplitudes are decreased. An irreversible absorbance increase occurs around 670 nm (pH ≤ 3). (d) The amplitude of the reversible photoreaction difference spectrum is maximum in the presence of 4–5 M urea or 1 M KSCN, conditions known to dissociate phycobiliprotein aggregates into monomers. At the same time, the phycocyanobilin chromophore(s) are bleached irreversibly, (e) The amplitude becomes very small in high aggregates, e.g. in phycobilisomes. (f) In a reciprocal manner, the phototransformation of native PEC leads to a reversible shift of its aggregation equilibrium between trimer and monomer. The latter is favored by orange, the former by green light, (g) It is concluded that the phycoviolobilin chromophore of PEC is responsible for reversible photochemistry in PEC, and that there is not only an influence of aggregation state on photochemistry, but also vice versa an effect of the status of the chromophore on aggregation state. This could constitute a primary signal in the putative function as sensory pigment, either directly, or indirectly via the release of other polypeptides, via photodynamic effects, or the like

Gene Transfer of Engineered Calmodulin Alleviates Ventricular Arrhythmias in a Calsequestrin-Associated Mouse Model of Catecholaminergic Polymorphic Ventricular Tachycardia

Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) is a familial arrhythmogenic syndrome characterized by sudden death. There are several genetic forms of CPVT associated with mutations in genes encoding the cardiac ryanodine receptor (RyR2) and its auxiliary proteins including calsequestrin (CASQ2) and calmodulin (CaM). It has been suggested that impairment of the ability of RyR2 to stay closed (ie, refractory) during diastole may be a common mechanism for these diseases. Here, we explore the possibility of engineering CaM variants that normalize abbreviated RyR2 refractoriness for subsequent viral-mediated delivery to alleviate arrhythmias in non-CaM-related CPVT

Coupled-mode theory for Bose-Einstein condensates

We apply the concepts of nonlinear guided-wave optics to a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) trapped in an external potential. As an example, we consider a parabolic double-well potential and derive coupled-mode equations for the complex amplitudes of the BEC macroscopic collective modes. Our equations describe different regimes of the condensate dynamics, including the nonlinear Josephson effect for any separation between the wells. We demonstrate macroscopic self-trapping for both repulsive and attractive interactions, and confirm our results by numerical simulations.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures; typos removed, figures amended; submitted to PR

Human tumors instigate granulin-expressing hematopoietic cells that promote malignancy by activating stromal fibroblasts in mice

Systemic instigation is a process by which endocrine signals sent from certain tumors (instigators) stimulate BM cells (BMCs), which are mobilized into the circulation and subsequently foster the growth of otherwise indolent carcinoma cells (responders) residing at distant anatomical sites. The identity of the BMCs and their specific contribution or contributions to responder tumor growth have been elusive. Here, we have demonstrated that Scal(+)cKit(-) hematopoietic BMCs of mouse hosts bearing instigating tumors promote the growth of responding tumors that form with a myofibroblast-rich, desmoplastic stroma. Such stroma is almost always observed in malignant human adenocarcinomas and is an indicator of poor prognosis. We then identified granulin (GRN) as the most upregulated gene in instigating Scal(+)cKit(-) BMCs relative to counterpart control cells. The GRN(+) BMCs that were recruited to the responding tumors induced resident tissue fibroblasts to express genes that promoted malignant tumor progression; indeed, treatment with recombinant GRN alone was sufficient to promote desmoplastic responding tumor growth. Further, analysis of tumor tissues from a cohort of breast cancer patients revealed that high GRN expression correlated with the most aggressive triple-negative, basal-like tumor subtype and reduced patient survival. Our data suggest that GRN and the unique hematopoietic BMCs that produce it might serve as novel therapeutic targets