Constraining dark sector perturbations II: ISW and CMB lensing tomography

Any Dark Energy (DE) or Modified Gravity (MG) model that deviates from a cosmological constant requires a consistent treatment of its perturbations, which can be described in terms of an effective entropy perturbation and an anisotropic stress. We have considered a recently proposed generic parameterisation of DE/MG perturbations and compared it to data from the Planck satellite and six galaxy catalogues, including temperature-galaxy (Tg), CMB lensing-galaxy and galaxy-galaxy (gg) correlations. Combining these observables of structure formation with tests of the background expansion allows us to investigate the properties of DE/MG both at the background and the perturbative level. Our constraints on DE/MG are mostly in agreement with the cosmological constant paradigm, while we also find that the constraint on the equation of state w (assumed to be constant) depends on the model assumed for the perturbation evolution. We obtain $w=-0.92^{+0.20}_{-0.16}$ (95% CL; CMB+gg+Tg) in the entropy perturbation scenario; in the anisotropic stress case the result is $w=-0.86^{+0.17}_{-0.16}$. Including the lensing correlations shifts the results towards higher values of w. If we include a prior on the expansion history from recent Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) measurements, we find that the constraints tighten closely around $w=-1$, making it impossible to measure any DE/MG perturbation evolution parameters. If, however, upcoming observations from surveys like DES, Euclid or LSST show indications for a deviation from a cosmological constant, our formalism will be a useful tool towards model selection in the dark sector.Comment: 25 pages, 8 figures; minor update for consistency with version accepted by JCAP (13/01/2015

Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty

Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. However, climate policies could impose a financial burden on the global poor through increased energy and food prices. Here, we project poverty rates until 2050 and assess how they are influenced by mitigation policies consistent with the 1.5 °C target. A continuation of historical trends will leave 350 million people globally in extreme poverty by 2030. Without progressive redistribution, climate policies would push an additional 50 million people into poverty. However, redistributing the national carbon pricing revenues domestically as an equal-per-capita climate dividend compensates this policy side effect, even leading to a small net reduction of the global poverty headcount (−6 million). An additional international climate finance scheme enables a substantial poverty reduction globally and also in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining national redistribution with international climate finance thus provides an important entry point to climate policy in developing countries

Gradients of cortical hierarchy in Autism

Autism is a developmental condition associated with altered functional connectivity. We propose to re-frame the functional connectivity alterations in terms of gradients that capture the functional hierarchy of cortical processing from sensory to default-mode network regions. We hypothesized that this hierarchy will be altered in ASD. To test that, we compared the scale of gradients in people with autism and healthy controls. The present results do not support our hypothesis. There are two alternative implications: either the processing hierarchies are preserved in autism or the scale of the gradients does not capture them. In the future we will attempt to settle which alternative is more likely

Integrated perspective on translating biophysical to economic impacts of climate change

Estimates of climate change’s economic impacts vary widely, depending on the applied methodology. This uncertainty is a barrier for policymakers seeking to quantify the benefits of mitigation. In this Perspective, we provide a comprehensive overview and categorization of the pathways and methods translating biophysical impacts into economic damages. We highlight the open question of the persistence of impacts as well as key methodological gaps, in particular the effect of including inequality and adaptation in the assessments. We discuss the need for intensifying interdisciplinary research, focusing on the uncertainty of econometric estimates of damages as well as identification of the most socioeconomically relevant types of impact. A structured model intercomparison related to economic impacts is noted as a crucial next step

Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways

REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits

This paper presents the new and now open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND). REMIND, as an integrated assessment model (IAM), provides an integrated view of the global energy–economy–emissions system and explores self-consistent transformation pathways. It describes a broad range of possible futures and their relation to technical and socio-economic developments as well as policy choices. REMIND is a multiregional model incorporating the economy and a detailed representation of the energy sector implemented in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). It uses non-linear optimization to derive welfare-optimal regional transformation pathways of the energy-economic system subject to climate and sustainability constraints for the time horizon from 2005 to 2100. The resulting solution corresponds to the decentralized market outcome under the assumptions of perfect foresight of agents and internalization of external effects. REMIND enables the analyses of technology options and policy approaches for climate change mitigation with particular strength in representing the scale-up of new technologies, including renewables and their integration in power markets. The REMIND code is organized into modules that gather code relevant for specific topics. Interaction between different modules is made explicit via clearly defined sets of input and output variables. Each module can be represented by different realizations, enabling flexible configuration and extension. The spatial resolution of REMIND is flexible and depends on the resolution of the input data. Thus, the framework can be used for a variety of applications in a customized form, balancing requirements for detail and overall runtime and complexity

The Astropy Problem

The Astropy Project (http://astropy.org) is, in its own words, "a community effort to develop a single core package for Astronomy in Python and foster interoperability between Python astronomy packages." For five years this project has been managed, written, and operated as a grassroots, self-organized, almost entirely volunteer effort while the software is used by the majority of the astronomical community. Despite this, the project has always been and remains to this day effectively unfunded. Further, contributors receive little or no formal recognition for creating and supporting what is now critical software. This paper explores the problem in detail, outlines possible solutions to correct this, and presents a few suggestions on how to address the sustainability of general purpose astronomical software

Defining a Sustainable Development Target Space for 2030 and 2050

With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways

The kinematic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects as probes of cosmology and astrophysics

A small fraction of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons scatter off electrons in the ionised gas in collapsed structures. This process, known as the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, is usually broken down into a thermal (tSZ) and a kinematic (kSZ) contribution. While the former is sensitive to the random velocities of the electrons in the hot gas, the latter is sourced by the bulk motion of the entire object. In this thesis I measure the signature of both of these effects by cross-correlating CMB data with different tracers of the large-scale structure. I further study how these effects can be used as probes of cosmology and astrophysics. I first report a statistically significant detection of the kSZ effect. This is achieved by combining a cluster catalogue derived from the first year data of the Dark Energy Survey with CMB temperature maps from the South Pole Telescope. I perform the measurement with a differential statistic that isolates the pairwise kSZ signal, providing the first detection of the large-scale motion of clusters using redshifts derived from photometric data. By fitting the pairwise kSZ signal to a theoretical template, I measure the average central optical depth of the cluster sample. I compare the extracted signal to simulations and find good agreement with respect to the signal-to-noise, the constraint on the optical depth, and the corresponding gas fraction. I next study the potential of the kSZ effect as a probe of cosmology, again focussing on the pairwise method. The main challenge is disentangling the cosmologically interesting mean pairwise velocity from the cluster optical depth and the associated uncertainties on the baryonic physics in clusters. Using the Magneticum cosmological hydrodynamical simulations I calibrate a scaling relation between the amplitude of the tSZ signal and the optical depth. I show that this relation can be used to recover an accurate estimate of the mean pairwise velocity from the kSZ signal, and that this effect can therefore be used as a probe of cosmology. I finally derive constraints on feedback from active galactic nuclei by setting limits on their tSZ signal. By combining all-sky microwave, sub-mm, and far-infrared data from the Planck and AKARI satellites, I break the degeneracy between the tSZ signature and extragalactic dust emission. I test the measurement pipeline with a catalogue of galaxy clusters, finding the expected high-significance tSZ detection together with correlated dust emission. I then measure the tSZ signal of spectroscopically confirmed quasi-stellar objects (QSOs), but obtain only a low-significance hint of a tSZ signature. This analysis leads to a lower mean thermal energy than reported in some previous studies which were contaminated by dust emission. A comparison of these results to hydrodynamical simulations can be used as a probe of QSO host masses.STF

Cosmology with the pairwise kinematic SZ effect: calibration and validation using hydrodynamical simulations

We study the potential of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect as a probe for cosmology, focusing on the pairwise method. The main challenge is disentangling the cosmologically interesting mean pairwise velocity from the cluster optical depth and the associated uncertainties on the baryonic physics in clusters. Furthermore, the pairwise kSZ signal might be affected by internal cluster motions or correlations between velocity and optical depth. We investigate these effects using the Magneticum cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, one of the largest simulations of this kind performed to date. We produce thermal SZ and kSZ maps with an area of 43 1600 deg2, and the corresponding cluster catalogues with M500c 73 3 7 1013 h-1 M&09 and z 72 2. From these data sets, we calibrate a scaling relation between the average Compton-y parameter and optical depth. We show that this relation can be used to recover an accurate estimate of the mean pairwise velocity from the kSZ effect, and that this effect can be used as an important probe of cosmology. We discuss the impact of theoretical and observational systematic effects, and find that further work on feedback models is required to interpret future high-precision measurements of the kSZ effect