Can unlisted firms benefit from market information? A data-driven approach

[EN] We employ a sample of 10,136 Italian micro-, small-, and mid-sized enterprises (MSMEs) that borrow from 113 cooperative banks to examine whether market pricing of public firms adds additional information to accounting measures in predicting default of private firms. Specifically, we first match the asset prices of listed firms following a data-driven clustering by means of Neural Networks Autoencoder so to evaluate the firm-wise probability of default (PD) of MSMEs. Then, we adopt three statistical techniques, namely linear models, multivariate adaptive regression spline, and random forest to assess the performance of the models and to explain the relevance of each predictor. Our results provide novel evidence that market information represents a crucial indicator in predicting corporate default of unlisted firms. Indeed, we show a significant improvement of the model performance, both on class-specific (F1-score for defaulted class) and overall metrics (AUC) when using market information in credit risk assessment, in addition to accounting information. Moreover, by taking advantage of global and local variable importance technique we prove that the increase in performance is effectively attributable to market information, highlighting its relevant effect in predicting corporate default.Bitetto, A.; Filomeni, S.; Modina, M. (2022). Can unlisted firms benefit from market information? A data-driven approach. En 4th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA 2022). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 65-72. https://doi.org/10.4995/CARMA2022.2022.15045657

Respiratory alkalosis in the acute hypoxemic patient during non-invasive mechanical ventilation: troubleshooting and prognostic relevance

Respiratory alkalosis is one of the four basic disturbances to the acid-base equilibrium. Persistent primary respiratory alkalosis during non-invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure could be a risk factor for NIV failure. A 69-year-old man with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure caused by severe COVID-19 pneumonia demonstrated progressive worsening of gas exchange and clinical conditions. Despite a positive response to noninvasive mechanical ventilation, a therapeutic increase in respiratory support was required

Age validation of the European Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus Linnaeus, 1758) in the Central-Southern Tyrrhenian Sea (West Mediterranean Sea)

The validation of growth of the European Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus Linnaeus, 1758) presents several gaps in the Mediterranean Sea, despite its growth has been widely studied using different methods. The uncertainty in estimating the European Anchovy age by otolith interpretation is linked to (i) the identification of the first growth ring; (ii) the presence of false increments; (iii) discrepancies in the applied age scheme (e.g. theoretical birthdate); and (iv) the progressive compactness of the last annuli in older specimens. The present study was conducted on specimens caught in Central-southern Tyrrhenian Sea between 2012 and 2016. The analyses of the otolith edge type and the marginal increment analysis allowed to describe the annuli deposition pattern, with the opaque ring deposited from June to September, and the translucent ring from October to May. The growth pattern inferred from the European Anchovy otoliths was either corroborated or indirectly validated by the agreement between the length–frequency results and the otolith age estimation. No significant differences were found between the von Bertalanffy growth curves calculated by otolith interpretation (back-calculation and direct otolith reading) and the LFDA. These outcomes resulted highly relevant for species, such as small pelagic fish, for which the direct validation methods (e.g. mark-recapture, captivity, radiochemical) are particularly difficult to implement

Negative Short-Term Outcome of Detoxification Therapy in Chronic Migraine With Medication Overuse Headache: Role for Early Life Traumatic Experiences and Recent Stressful Events

Background: Early traumatic experiences and Stressful episodes appear to be associated to the development and perpetuation of chronic pain disorders and to dependence-related behaviors.Objective: The present study evaluated whether these factors can be predictors, together with psychiatric conditions, of the outcome of a detoxification treatment in patients suffering from chronic migraine and medication-overuse headache in a 2-month follow-up.Methods: Consecutive patients undergoing a detoxification program as therapy for treating chronic migraine and medication overuse headache at the Pavia Headache Center were analyzed. During this program, lasting about 1 week, all patients received the standard CARE in-patient withdrawal protocol, which consisted in discontinuing abruptly the overused drug(s) and receiving daily detoxification therapy. Data on childhood traumatic events and recent stressful ones were analyzed by means of the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire and Stressful life-events Questionnaire. Psychiatric conditions were evaluated using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of mental disorders.Results: A total of 166 (80% females; mean age 44.7) patients completed the follow-up at 2 months after the detoxification program: of these 118 (71%) (78% females; mean age 44.7) stopped overuse and reverted to an episodic pattern of headache (Group A); 19 (11%) (89% females; mean age 41.3) kept overusing and maintained a chronic pattern of headache (Group B); and 29 (18%) (79% females; mean age 46.9) stopped overuse without any benefit on headache frequency (Group C). At the multivariate analyses, a higher number of early life emotional distress (Odds Ratio 11.096; p = 0.037) arose as a prognostic factor for the outcome in Group B, while major depression during life-time (Odds Ratio 3.703; p = 0.006) and higher number of severe stressful episodes in the past 10 years (Odds Ratio 1.679; p = 0.045) were prognostic factors for the outcome of Group C.Conclusions: Data suggest that early life traumas and stressful events have a negative impact on the outcome of the detoxification program in subjects overusing acute medication for headache. The history of emotional childhood traumas is associated to the failure to cease overuse, whereas recent very serious life events are associated to the persistence of headache chronicity

Negative Short-Term Outcome of Detoxification Therapy in Chronic Migraine With Medication Overuse Headache: Role for Early Life Traumatic Experiences and Recent Stressful Events

Background: Early traumatic experiences and Stressful episodes appear to be associated to the development and perpetuation of chronic pain disorders and to dependence-related behaviors. Objective: The present study evaluated whether these factors can be predictors, together with psychiatric conditions, of the outcome of a detoxification treatment in patients suffering from chronic migraine and medication-overuse headache in a 2-month follow-up. Methods: Consecutive patients undergoing a detoxification program as therapy for treating chronic migraine and medication overuse headache at the Pavia Headache Center were analyzed. During this program, lasting about 1 week, all patients received the standard CARE in-patient withdrawal protocol, which consisted in discontinuing abruptly the overused drug(s) and receiving daily detoxification therapy. Data on childhood traumatic events and recent stressful ones were analyzed by means of the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire and Stressful life-events Questionnaire. Psychiatric conditions were evaluated using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of mental disorders. Results: A total of 166 (80% females; mean age 44.7) patients completed the follow-up at 2 months after the detoxification program: of these 118 (71%) (78% females; mean age 44.7) stopped overuse and reverted to an episodic pattern of headache (Group A); 19 (11%) (89% females; mean age 41.3) kept overusing and maintained a chronic pattern of headache (Group B); and 29 (18%) (79% females; mean age 46.9) stopped overuse without any benefit on headache frequency (Group C). At the multivariate analyses, a higher number of early life emotional distress (Odds Ratio 11.096; p = 0.037) arose as a prognostic factor for the outcome in Group B, while major depression during life-time (Odds Ratio 3.703; p = 0.006) and higher number of severe stressful episodes in the past 10 years (Odds Ratio 1.679; p = 0.045) were prognostic factors for the outcome of Group C. Conclusions: Data suggest that early life traumas and stressful events have a negative impact on the outcome of the detoxification program in subjects overusing acute medication for headache. The history of emotional childhood traumas is associated to the failure to cease overuse, whereas recent very serious life events are associated to the persistence of headache chronicity

Investigation of spatiotemporal patterns in mean temperature and mean trophic level of MEDITS survey catches in the Mediterranean Sea

Mean temperature (MTC) and mean trophic level (MTL) spatiotemporal patterns of MEDITS survey catches were examined in 13 geographic statistical areas (GSAs) of the Mediterranean between 1994 and 2016. The study aimed to detect changes in the demersal community structure related to anthropogenic impacts. A generalized additive modelling approach was used to examine the effects of year and GSA on the MTC and MTL indexes and on bottom temperature by haul. For the MTC index, the year was significant only in 4 GSAs, while for MTL it was significant in 5. Higher MTC values were observed in central and eastern areas. Bottom temperature increased after 2010, and also from west to east and from north to south. Our results indicate that the recently observed increase in bottom sea temperature has not resulted in an immediate response by demersal marine communities, but areas with higher warming rates or shallow depths were found to be more susceptible to sea warming. For MTL, decreasing trends were observed in only 2 GSAs, while the temporal trends observed in 5 GSAs may have reflected changes in fishing activity patterns. However, higher MTL values were observed in GSAs with generally higher exploitation rates, indicating that factors other than fishing play an important structuring role in marine communities. The present results indicate differences among Mediterranean subareas in regard to changes in the community structure attributed to environmental conditions and exploitation patterns and have implications for the ecology and dynamics of the stocks.Se analizaron los patrones espaciotemporales de la temperatura media inferida (TMI) y el nivel trófico medio (NTM) de las capturas de la campaña MEDITS en trece áreas (GSAs) del Mediterráneo entre 1994 y 2016. El estudio pretendía detectar cambios en la estructura de la comunidad demersal relacionados con impactos antropogénicos. Se utilizó un modelo aditivo generalizado (GAM) para examinar los efectos del año y GSA sobre la temperatura del fondo y los índices de TMI y NTM. De las trece GSAs analizadas, el año y la TMI solo fueron significativos en cuatro y cinco áreas, respectivamente. Los mayores valores de NTM se observaron en el centro y el este del Mediterráneo. La temperatura del fondo aumentó desde el año 2010, así como de oeste a este y de norte a sur. Nuestros resultados indicaron que el reciente incremento de temperatura del fondo observado en el Mediterráneo no ha dado lugar a una respuesta inmediata en las comunidades demersales; no obstante, en áreas con mayores niveles de calentamiento o de menores profundidades las comunidades fueron más susceptibles a dicho calentamiento. En cuanto al NTM, solo se observaron tendencias decrecientes en dos GSAs, mientras que los patrones temporales detectados en cinco GSAs posiblemente reflejaron cambios en la actividad pesquera. Sin embargo, se observaron mayores valores de NTM en GSAs con mayores niveles de explotación, indicando que otros factores, aparte de la pesca, juegan un papel importante en la estructuración de las comunidades marinas. Los resultados del estudio indican la existencia de diferencias en la estructura de las comunidades entre subáreas del Mediterráneo que podrían ser atribuidas a diferencias en las condiciones ambientales y en los patrones de explotación que afectan a la ecología y dinámica de los stocks

Consistent effects of non-invasive vagus nerve stimulation (nVNS) for the acute treatment of migraine: Additional findings from the randomized, sham-controlled, double-blind PRESTO trial 11 Medical and Health Sciences 1103 Clinical Sciences

BACKGROUND: Non-invasive vagus nerve stimulation (nVNS) has been shown to be practical, safe, and well tolerated for treating primary headache disorders. The recent multicenter, randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled PRESTO trial provided Class I evidence that for patients with episodic migraine, nVNS significantly increases the probability of having mild pain or being pain-free 2 h post stimulation. We report additional pre-defined secondary and other end points from PRESTO that demonstrate the consistency and durability of nVNS efficacy across a broad range of outcomes. METHODS: After a 4-week observation period, 248 patients with episodic migraine with/without aura were randomly assigned to acute treatment of migraine attacks with nVNS (n = 122) or a sham device (n = 126) during a double-blind period lasting 4 weeks (or until the patient had treated 5 attacks). All patients received nVNS therapy during the subsequent 4-week/5-attack open-label period. RESULTS: The intent-to-treat population consisted of 243 patients. The nVNS group (n = 120) had a significantly greater percentage of attacks treated during the double-blind period that were pain-free at 60 (P = 0.005) and 120 min (P = 0.026) than the sham group (n = 123) did. Similar results were seen for attacks with pain relief at 60 (P = 0.025) and 120 min (P = 0.018). For the first attack and all attacks, the nVNS group had significantly greater decreases (vs sham) in pain score from baseline to 60 min (P = 0.029); the decrease was also significantly greater for nVNS at 120 min for the first attack (P = 0.011). Results during the open-label period were consistent with those of the nVNS group during the double-blind period. The incidence of adverse events (AEs) and adverse device effects was low across all study periods, and no serious AEs occurred. CONCLUSIONS: These results further demonstrate that nVNS is an effective and reliable acute treatment for multiple migraine attacks, which can be used safely while preserving the patient's option to use traditional acute medications as rescue therapy, possibly decreasing the risk of medication overuse. Together with its practicality and optimal tolerability profile, these findings suggest nVNS has value as a front-line option for acute treatment of migraine. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02686034