The Future of Electricity Generation in New Zealand

Increasing demand for electricity in New Zealand requires approximately 150 megawatts of new capacity to be installed annually. Rapidly increasing global prices for fossil fuels; the New Zealand Energy Strategy with its focus on renewable technologies; climate change policies; and a gradual shift from an energy constrained electricity system to one with capacity constraints are all factors underlying a change in the type of generation plant being installed and the location of that plant. This paper examines the likely future of the generation sector over the next 20-30 years. It is based on the work undertaken by the Electricity Commission in preparing its Statement of Opportunities, which contains scenarios describing how electricity may be generated in the future. These scenarios are produced using the Commission’s generation expansion model.Electricity, capacity expansion, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Increasing parental knowledge in treatment of childhood fever

Fever is the single most common symptom that causes parents to seek medical attention for their young children (Kramer, Naimark, & Leduc, 1985). Parental lack of knowledge regarding the management of pediatric fever plays a roll in this phenomenon. The problem addressed in this study is inappropriate parental usage of emergency treatment resources for the treatment of non-emergent childhood fevers. This study tested if providing direct and indirect information about childhood fever and its treatment resulted in a decrease of inappropriate emergency room visits for non-emergent pediatric febrile illnesses for a select population; A quasi-experimental design was used with a control and a treatment group. The Neuman Systems Model (1989) for nursing provided the theoretical base for this study; There was no significant change in the number of visits between the two groups, however, the participants that had read the educational handout had inappropriate emergent visits 25% of the time while those that did not read the handout had inappropriate visits nearly 80% of the time; Results of this study suggest that when parents are provided accurate information about pediatric fevers, they are less likely to seek emergent care for their child inappropriately

Classification of Plot-Level Fire-Caused Tree Mortality in a Redwood Forest Using Digital Orthophotography and Lidar

Swanton Pacific Ranch is an approximately 1,300 ha working ranch and forest in northern Santa Cruz County, California, managed by California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo (Cal Poly). On August 12, 2009, the Lockheed Fire burned 300 ha of forestland, 51% of the forested area on the property, with variable fire intensity and mortality. This study used existing inventory data from 47 permanent 0.08 ha (1/5 ac) plots to compare the accuracy of classifying mortality resulting from the fire using digital multispectral imagery and LiDAR. The percent mortality of trees at least 25.4 cm (10”) DBH was aggregated to three classes (0-25, 25-50, and 50-100%). Three separate Classification Analysis and Regression Tree (CART) models were created to classify plot mortality. The first used the best imagery predictor variable of those considered, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from 2010 National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial imagery, with shadowed pixel values adjusted, and non-canopy pixels removed. The second used the same NDVI in combination with selected variables from post-fire LiDAR data collected in 2010. The third used the same NDVI in combination with selected variables from differenced LiDAR data calculated using post-fire LiDAR and pre-fire LiDAR collected in 2008. The imagery alone was 74% accurate; the imagery and post-fire LiDAR model was 85% accurate, while the imagery and differenced LiDAR model was 83% accurate. These findings indicate that remote sensing data can accurately estimate post-fire mortality, and that the addition of LiDAR data to imagery may yield only modest improvement

Numerical Studies of Iron Based Superconductors using Spin-Fermion Models

The iron pnictide and iron chalchogenide superconductors are studied numerically using classical Monte Carlo techniques to reproduce experimental data and make predictions about the nature of the relevant interactions. The focus will be using Spin-Fermion models in a classical approximation to explore the phase diagram and calculate important physical properties of these materials over a wide range of temperatures

Inter-frequency Bias Estimation for the GPS Monitor Station Network

The inter-frequency bias (IFB) is present in all dual frequency combinations of GPS pseudorange and carrier phase observables. It is caused by the path dependent signal delays in both the satellite and receiver. That delay can be directly measured for a space vehicle prior to launch, or for a ground based receiver prior to its being used in the field. However the bias is known to drift, and monitoring the delay estimate by direct measurement is time consuming for ground based receivers and impossible for deployed space vehicles. Hansen (2002) examined the observability of IFB through a global model of ionosphere total electron content (TEC). Variation in the receiver portion of the IFB can also be observed in receivers with antennae in a zero-baseline configuration. This is referred to as an inter-receiver bias (IRB). In this study a Kalman filter is formulated to observe IFBs and IRBs. Process noise is used to allow the filter to track changes in the IFBs and IRBs. The filter also implements constraints to reflect the fact that a given IRB is not linearly independent of the IFBs. Because the receivers are distributed on a global scale, the Kalman filter requires a globally observable phenomenon by which to tie the IFBs. In this case ionosphere delay provides such a phenomenon. The filter was applied to observations collected by GPS monitor stations that comprise the National Geospatial- Intelligence Agency Monitor Station Network (MSN). Each monitor station contains two geodetic quality receivers in a zero-baseline configuration and continuously collects GPS observations. The GPS observations collected by this network are used to produce both precise ephemeris and the broadcast ephemeris. GPS observations made through the network are incorporated into the GPS Master Control Station (MCS) Kalman filter of the Operational Control System (OCS) (Wiley, 2006). The Kalman filter in the OCS estimates the orbital parameters that are transmitted via the navigation message. If estimated effectively, knowledge of the receiver portion of the IFB can aid in achieving better ionosphere models. IFBs are made observable using a global ionosphere delay model. A ninth order spherical harmonic model derived by Y.C. Chao (1997) was used in this study for ionosphere delay. Chao used this spherical harmonic model to capture ionospheric variations that occurred over a smaller global region in his IFB estimation process. In this study a similar model was used but was verified using observations that span a global coverage. The receiver portion of the IFB is observed precisely using the IRB. In this study error terms were introduced into the Kalman filter design to realign the IRB estimates to the IFB estimates produced for each of the two receivers in a zero baseline configuration. For a nominal epoch of measurement, there were 198 noisy measurements used each epoch to generate twelve monitor station specific IRBs. The IRB estimates showed small, decimeter level dynamic variation over the period of a day. The quality of the IFB estimate directly affects the quality of the ionospheric model formed during the estimation process. Results verify that the filter is operating properly. The ionosphere model, though simple, demonstrates that the total electron content (TEC) peaks during local noon and is at a minimum during local night. IRB estimates are roughly constant over time and have a magnitude of less than 2.5 meters. Similar estimates are formed for the IFBs, however when processing one day of observations, the IFB estimates are less stable than those of the IRBs. Future effort will involve tuning the filter, and establishing criteria for its convergence