The impact of HCV therapy in a high HIV-HCV prevalence population: A modeling study on people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Background Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) coinfection is a major global health problem especially among people who inject drugs (PWID), with significant clinical implications. Mathematical models have been used to great effect to shape HIV care, but few have been proposed for HIV/HCV. Methods We constructed a deterministic compartmental ODE model that incorporated layers for HIV disease progression, HCV disease progression and PWID demography. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and Methadone Maintenance Therapy (MMT) scale-ups were modeled as from 2016 and projected forward 10 years. HCV treatment roll-out was modeled beginning in 2026, after a variety of MMT scale-up scenarios, and projected forward 10 years. Results Our results indicate that scale-up of ART has a major impact on HIV though not on HCV burden. MMT scale-up has an impact on incidence of both infections. HCV treatment roll-out has a measurable impact on reductions of deaths, increasing multifold the mortality reductions afforded by just ART/MMT scale-ups. Conclusion HCV treatment roll-out can have major and long-lasting effects on averting PWID deaths on top of those averted by ART/MMT scale-up. Efficient intervention scale-up of HCV alongside HIV interventions is critical in Vietnam

The impact of HCV therapy in a high HIV-HCV prevalence population: A modeling study on people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

BACKGROUND: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) coinfection is a major global health problem especially among people who inject drugs (PWID), with significant clinical implications. Mathematical models have been used to great effect to shape HIV care, but few have been proposed for HIV/HCV. METHODS: We constructed a deterministic compartmental ODE model that incorporated layers for HIV disease progression, HCV disease progression and PWID demography. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and Methadone Maintenance Therapy (MMT) scale-ups were modeled as from 2016 and projected forward 10 years. HCV treatment roll-out was modeled beginning in 2026, after a variety of MMT scale-up scenarios, and projected forward 10 years. RESULTS: Our results indicate that scale-up of ART has a major impact on HIV though not on HCV burden. MMT scale-up has an impact on incidence of both infections. HCV treatment roll-out has a measurable impact on reductions of deaths, increasing multifold the mortality reductions afforded by just ART/MMT scale-ups. CONCLUSION: HCV treatment roll-out can have major and long-lasting effects on averting PWID deaths on top of those averted by ART/MMT scale-up. Efficient intervention scale-up of HCV alongside HIV interventions is critical in Vietnam

Five challenges in evolution and infectious diseases.

Evolution is a key aspect of the biology of many pathogens, driving processes ranging from immune escape to changes in virulence. Because evolution is inherently subject to feedbacks, and because pathogen evolution plays out at scales ranging from within-host to between-host and beyond, evolutionary questions provide special challenges to the modelling community. In this article, we provide an overview of five challenges in modelling the evolution of pathogens and their hosts, and point to areas for development, focussing in particular on the issue of linking theory and data

ERG promotes T-acute lymphoblastic leukemia and is transcriptionally regulated in leukemic cells by a stem cell enhancer

The Ets-related gene (ERG) is an Ets-transcription factor required for normal blood stem cell development. ERG expression is down-regulated during early T-lymphopoiesis but maintained in T-acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL), where it is recognized as an independent risk factor for adverse outcome. However, it is unclear whether ERG is directly involved in the pathogenesis of T-ALL and how its expression is regulated. Here we demonstrate that transgenic expression of ERG causes T-ALL in mice and that its knockdown reduces the proliferation of human MOLT4 T-ALL cells. We further demonstrate that ERG expression in primary human T-ALL cells is mediated by the binding of other T-cell oncogenes SCL/TAL1, LMO2, and LYL1 in concert with ERG, FLI1, and GATA3 to the ERG +85 enhancer. This enhancer is not active in normal T cells but in transgenic mice targets expression to fetal liver c-kit(+) cells, adult bone marrow stem/progenitors and early CD4(-)CD8(-) double-negative thymic progenitors. Taken together, these data illustrate that ERG promotes T-ALL and that failure to extinguish activity of stem cell enhancers associated with regulatory transcription factors such as ERG can contribute to the development of leukemia