Stormy Days on an Open Field: Asymmetries in the Global Economy

Openness is not necessarily good for the poor. Reducing trade protection has not brought growth to today’s poorest countries, and open capital markets have not been good for the poorest households in emerging market economies. In this paper I present evidence on these two points. First, countries highly dependent on primary exports two decades ago, despite their substantial engagement in trade and a marked decline in their tariff rates in the 1990s, have failed to grow. Second, within high-debt emerging market economies the financial crises of the last decade, whether induced by domestic policy problems or global contagion, have been especially costly for the poor (in welfare terms if not in terms of absolute income losses). I discuss the asymmetries in the global economy that help explain why countries and people cannot always compete on equal terms on the “level playing field” of the global economy.IMF, trade protection, economic growth, market economy, tariff

Stormy Days on an Open Field: Asymmetries in the Global Economy

globalization, trade, growth, income distribution, development

Reflections on the Macro Foundations of the Middle Class in the Developing World

In this working paper I define inclusive growth as growth conducive to increasing the size and economic command of the middle class. I suggest a definition of the middle class based on absolute and relative measures of country-based income distributions, and present evidence of change in the size of the “middle class” for selected developing countries. I then review how macroeconomic policies shape the environment and incentives for inclusive growth, focusing on three areas: fiscal discipline, the more rule-based the better; a fair tax and redistribution system; and a business friendly exchange rate. The adoption of macro policies that favor the middle class lays the foundation for more economically and politically sustainable development. While on the whole sound macro policy that is good for the middle class is also likely to be pro-poor, tradeoffs may exist with respect to tax, expenditure and transfer programs and responses to economic shocks. Governments should consider the weighted welfare outcomes of alternative approaches to macro policy, rather than un-weighted growth or overly weighted poverty outcomes.macroeconomics, sustainable development, middle class

Global demographic change : economic impacts and policy challenges : overview panel

Population

Seven Deadly Sins: Reflections on Donor Failings

In the face of continuing development challenges in the world's poorest countries, there have been new calls throughout the donor community to increase the volume of development aid. Equal attention should be given to the reform of the aid business itself, that is, the practices and processes and procedures and politics of aid. This paper sets out the shortcomings of that business on which new research has recently shed light, but which have not been adequately or explicitly incorporated into the donor community's reform agenda. It outlines seven of the worst "sins" or failings of donors, including impatience with institution building, collusion and coordination failures, failure to evaluate the results of their support, and financing that is volatile and unpredictable. It suggests possible short-term practical fixes and notes the need ultimately for more ambitious and structural changes in the overall aid architecture.development aid, donor community, aid reform

Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development

I review the literature on the effects of inequality on growth and development in the developing world. Two stylized facts emerge from empirical studies: inequality is more likely to harm growth in countries at low levels of income (below about $3200 per capita in 2000 dollars); and it is at high levels of inequality (at or above a Gini coefficient of .45) that a negative association emerges. Between 15 and 40 percent of the developing world's population lives in countries with these characteristics, depending on the inclusion of China, whose level of inequality has recently been measured at almost .45. Theory and evidence suggest that high inequality affects growth: (1) through interaction with incomplete and underdeveloped markets for capital and information; (2) by discouraging the evolution of the economic and political institutions associated with accountable government (which in turn enable a market environment conducive to investment and growth); and (3) by undermining the civic and social life that sustains effective collective decision-making.Income distribution, inequality, poverty, growth, development, institutions,

The macroeconomic foundations of inclusive middle-class growth :

Poverty reduction, Hunger, Inclusive growth, Middle-class, Pro-poor growth, Global Markets, Fiscal discipline, Fair tax,

Social development is economic development

The author makes four main points in this paper: (1) social development, in addition to improving human welfare directly, is an excellent investment. The hard-nosed economic fact is that it contributes to economic growth. Even a narrow interest in growth for growth's sake dictates putting your money into social development programs; (2) however, investing in social development does not guarantee growth all by itself, so those concerned with social progress cannot absent themselves from the larger debate about other aspects of economic policy in their countries; (3) moreover, making social programs work is not simple -- not politically, not technically, and not administratively; (4) still, we know from the experience of some of the poorest countries that it can be done.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Primary Education,Poverty Assessment,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems,Early Child and Children's Health

Health and development : what can research contribute?

This survey of the state of research on relations between health and economic development discusses first research on how development affects health and then research on how health affects development. Central assumptions include: (A) Health is produced by households, along with a number of other valued goods, as a function of the resources the household has and the constraints and opportunities it faces; the process of development affects health in part by changing those resources, constraints and opportunities. (B) Development depends in part on investment in human capital; improvement in health of individuals is thus likely to influence the amount and process of development. (C) Both health and other aspects of development are affected by public policies. Public policies are affected by many political, economic and social interests; policies are also and can also be affected by better information and thus by better research.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Systems Development&Reform,Health Economics&Finance,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems,Housing&Human Habitats

The (Indispensable) Middle Class in Developing Countries; or, The Rich and the Rest, Not the Poor and the Rest

Inclusive growth is widely embraced as the central economic goal for developing countries, but the concept is not well defined in the development economics literature. Since the early 1990s, the focus has been primarily on pro-poor growth, with the “poor” being people living on less than $1 day, or in some regions$2 day. The idea of pro-poor growth emerged in the early 1990s as a counterpoint to a concern with growth alone (measured in per-capita income) and is generally defined as growth which benefits the poor as much or more than the rest of the population. Examples include conditional cash transfers, which target the poor while minimizing the fiscal burden on the public sector, and donors’ emphasizing primary over higher education as an assured way to benefit the poor while investing in long-term growth through increases in human capital. Yet these pro-poor, inclusive policies are not necessarily without tradeoffs in fostering long-run growth. In this paper I argue that the concept of inclusive growth should go beyond the traditional emphasis on the poor (and the rest) and take into account changes in the size and economic command of the group conventionally defined as neither poor nor rich, i.e., the middle class.middle class, developing countries, growth, economics, development, poverty, human capital