International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics : a dynamic panel analysis

In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country’s international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions, but not outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality. Finally, we adduce evidence that whether deterioration of a country’s net foreign asset to GDP position leads to a depreciation of that country’s effective exchange rate depends on its rate of inflation relative to the rate of inflation abroad as well as its exposure to global shocks. JEL Classification: F31, F37, C2

Maternal haemodynamic function differs in pre‐eclampsia when it is associated with a small‐for‐gestational‐age newborn: a prospective cohort study

Objective To describe maternal haemodynamic differences in gestational hypertension with small‐for‐gestational‐age babies (HDP + SGA), gestational hypertension with appropriate‐for‐gestational‐age babies (HDP‐only) and control pregnancies. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary Hospital, UK. Population Women with gestational hypertension and healthy pregnant women. Methods Maternal haemodynamic indices were measured using a non‐invasive Ultrasound Cardiac Output Monitor (USCOM‐1A®) and corrected for gestational age and maternal characteristics using device‐specific reference ranges. Main outcome measures Maternal cardiac output, stroke volume, systemic vascular resistance. Results We included 114 HDP + SGA, 202 HDP‐only and 401 control pregnancies at 26–41 weeks of gestation. There was no significant difference in the mean arterial blood pressure (110 versus 107 mmHg, P = 0.445) between the two HDP groups at presentation. Pregnancies complicated by HDP + SGA had significantly lower median heart rate (76 versus 85 bpm versus 83 bpm), lower cardiac output (0.85 versus 0.98 versus 0.97 MoM) and higher systemic vascular resistance (1.4 versus 1.0 versus 1.2 MoM) compared with control and HDP‐only pregnancies, respectively (all P < 0.05). Conclusion Women with HDP + SGA present with more severe haemodynamic dysfunction than HDP‐only. Even HDP‐only pregnancies exhibit impaired haemodynamic indices compared with normal pregnancies, supporting a role of the maternal cardiovascular system in gestational hypertension irrespective of fetal size. Central haemodynamic changes may play a role in the pathogenesis of pre‐eclampsia and should be considered alongside placental aetiology