The great inflation, limited asset markets participation and aggregate demand: FED policy was better than you think

When enough agents do not participate in asset markets, the slope of the aggregate demand curve is reversed. Monetary policy should be passive, to ensure equilibrium determinacy and to minimize variations in output and inflation. This paper presents evidence that asset markets participation in the US was limited over the Great Inflation period and the slope of the IS curve had the ’wrong’ sign. Our results may help explain the ’Great Inflation’ and give optimism for FED policy. If the economy was characterized by a relatively higher degree of financial frictions over that period: (i) policy implied a determinate equilibrium and ruled out sunspot fluctuations; (ii) policy was closer to optimal than conventional wisdom dictates; (iii) responses and variability of macroeconomic variables conditional upon fundamental shocks are close to their estimated counterparts for a wide range of reasonable parameterizations. Notably, ’cost-push’ shocks are enough to generate a Great Inflation. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E44, E58, E65limited asset markets participation, monetary policy rules, real (in)determinacy, Taylor Principle, the Great Inflation

Fiscal Policy, Business Cycles and Labor-Market Fluctuations

In this paper we study the effects and transmission of fiscal policy in a dynamic general equilibrium sticky-price model with non-Ricardian agents, distortionary taxation and a Walrasian labor market. We derive a simple analytical framework for fiscal policy similar to the workhorse 'new synthesis' model widely used in the monetary policy literature. We then explore theoretical conditions under which government spending (whether financed by lump-sum or income taxes) can increase private consumption as observed in the data. We conclude that making the model fare better in this respect necessarily makes it fare worse in what concerns real wage fluctuations. Additionally, we show that the model can generate non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy when participation to asset markets is limited enough and the monetary policy rule is passive.Fiscal Policy; Dynamic General Equilibrium; Distortionary Taxation; Sticky Prices; Non-Ricardian Agents; Government Debt; Non-Keynesian Effects.

Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety

We show that deviations from long-run stability of product prices are optimal in the presence of endogenous producer entry and product variety in a sticky-price model with monopolistic competition in which price stability would be optimal in the absence of entry. Specifically, a long-run positive (negative) rate of inflation is optimal when the benefit of variety to consumers falls short of (exceeds) the market incentives for creating that variety under flexible prices, governed by the desired markup. Plausible preference specifications and parameter values justify a long-run inflation rate of two percent or higher. Price indexation implies even larger deviations from long-run price stability. However, price stability (around this non-zero trend) is close to optimal in the short run, even in the presence of time-varying flexible-price markups that distort the allocation of resources across time and states. The central bank uses its leverage over real activity in the long run, but not in the short run. Our results point to the need for continued empirical research on the determinants of markups and investigation of the benefit of product variety to consumers.

Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles

This paper builds a framework for the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations that incorporates the endogenous determination of the number of producers over the business cycle. Economic expansions induce higher entry rates by prospective entrants subject to irreversible investment costs. The sluggish response of the number of producers (due to the sunk entry costs) generates a new and potentially important endogenous propagation mechanism for real business cycle models. The stock-market price of investment (corresponding to the creation of new productive units) determines household saving decisions, producer entry, and the allocation of labor across sectors. The model performs at least as well as the benchmark real business cycle model with respect to the implied second-moment properties of key macroeconomic aggregates. In addition, our framework jointly predicts a procyclical number of producers and procyclical profits even for preference specifications that imply countercyclical markups. When we include physical capital, the model can reproduce the variance and autocorrelation of GDP found in the data.

Limited Asset Markets Participation, Monetary Policy and (Inverted) Keynesian Logic

This paper incorporates limited asset markets participation in dynamic general equilibrium and develops a simple analytical framework for monetary policy analysis. Aggregate dynamics and stability properties of an otherwise standard business cycle model depend nonlinearly on the degree of asset market participation. While 'moderate' participation rates strengthen the role of monetary policy, low enough participation causes an inversion of results dictated by ('Keynesian') conventional wisdom. The slope of the 'IS' curve changes sign, the 'Taylor principle' is inverted, optimal welfare-maximizing monetary policy requires a passive policy rule and the effects and propagation of shocks are changed. The conditions for these results to hold are relatively mild compared to some existing empirical evidence. Our results may help explain the 'Great Inflation' and justify Fed behavior during that period.limited asset markets participation, dynamic general equilibrium, aggregate demand, Taylor Principle, optimal monetary policy, real (in)determinacy

The Utopia of Implementing Monetary Policy Cooperation through Domestic Institutions

In a wide variety of international macro models monetary policy cooperation is optimal, non-cooperative policies are inefficient, but optimal policies can be attained noncooperatively by optimal design of domestic institutions. We show that given endogenous instititional design, inefficiencies of noncooperation cannot and will not be eliminated. Credible contracts are introduced as the contracts that would be chosen by the governments based on their individual rationality. These will be inefficient when compared to the optimal ones. Implementation of the latter implicity embeds an assumption about cooperation at the delegation stage, which is inconsistent with the advocated non-cooperative nature of the solution. A general solution method for credible contracts and an example from international monetary policy cooperation are considered. Our results could explain some inefficiencies of existing delegation schemes and hint to a stronger coordinating role for supranational authorities in international policy coordination.

Deus ex machina wanted: time inconsistency of time consistency solutions in monetary policy

This paper argues that delegation (optimal institutional design) is not a solution to the dynamic inconcistency problem, and can even reinforce it. We show that 'optimal' delegation is not consistent with government's incentives. We solve for delegation schemes that are consistent with these incentives and find that they imply 'no delegation'. Introducing a cost of reappointing the central banker just postpones the problem, and can only solve it if the government is infinitely averse to changing central bank's contract. Our results hint to: (i) alternative explanations for good anti-inflationary performance; (ii) strengthening central bank independence and (iii) giving a more prominent role to Central Bank reputation building in fighting inflation.