London, UK

Continued overleaf Systemic lupus erythematosus and pregnancy – a challenge to the clinicia

Assistant Editors

Continued overleaf Management of pain in chronic pancreatitis. New solutions to an old problem Management of pain in chronic pancreatitis is a challenging clinical problem. Lack of proper understanding of the mechanisms responsible for pain, high morbidity and mortality rates historically associated with pancreatic surgery, and the long held view that pain will eventually subside when the pancreas "burns itself out " as a result of progressive fibrosis have all contributed to a non-surgical therapeutic approach for decades [1]. Many recent studies have challenged this view, and at present there is a shift from the "wait and see " approach to a more pro-active type of therapeutic approach in the management of pancreatic pain [2]. It is accepted that, at least in a majority of cases, the pain results from pressure increase within the pancreatic duct system from obstruction to the main pancreatic duct by stones or from post-inflammatory strictures [3]

Modifiers of the effect of maternal multiple micronutrient supplementation on stillbirth, birth outcomes, and infant mortality: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from 17 randomised trials in low-income and middle-income countries

Background: Micronutrient deficiencies are common among women in low-income and middle-income countries. Data from randomised trials suggest that maternal multiple micronutrient supplementation decreases the risk of low birthweight and potentially improves other infant health outcomes. However, heterogeneity across studies suggests influence from effect modifiers. We aimed to identify individual-level modifiers of the effect of multiple micronutrient supplements on stillbirth, birth outcomes, and infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Methods: This two-stage meta-analysis of individual patient included data from 17 randomised controlled trials done in 14 low-income and middle-income countries, which compared multiple micronutrient supplements containing iron-folic acid versus iron-folic acid alone in 112 953 pregnant women. We generated study-specific estimates and pooled subgroup estimates using fixed-effects models and assessed heterogeneity between subgroups with the χ2 test for heterogeneity. We did sensitivity analyses using random-effects models, stratifying by iron-folic acid dose, and exploring individual study effect. Findings: Multiple micronutrient supplements containing iron-folic acid provided significantly greater reductions in neonatal mortality for female neonates compared with male neonates than did iron-folic acid supplementation alone (RR 0·85, 95% CI 0·75–0·96 vs 1·06, 0·95–1·17; p value for interaction 0·007). Multiple micronutrient supplements resulted in greater reductions in low birthweight (RR 0·81, 95% CI 0·74–0·89; p value for interaction 0·049), small-for-gestational-age births (0·92, 0·87–0·97; p=0·03), and 6-month mortality (0·71, 0·60–0·86; p=0·04) in anaemic pregnant women (haemoglobin <110g/L) as compared with non-anaemic pregnant women. Multiple micronutrient supplements also had a greater effect on preterm births among underweight pregnant women (BMI <18·5 kg/m2; RR 0·84, 95% CI 0·78–0·91; p=0·01). Initiation of multiple micronutrient supplements before 20 weeks gestation provided greater reductions in preterm birth (RR 0·89, 95% CI 0·85–0·93; p=0·03). Generally, the survival and birth outcome effects of multiple micronutrient supplementation were greater with high adherence (≥95%) to supplementation. Multiple micronutrient supplements did not significantly increase the risk of stillbirth or neonatal, 6-month, or infant mortality, neither overall or in any of the 26 examined subgroups. Interpretation: Antenatal multiple micronutrient supplements improved survival for female neonates and provided greater birth-outcome benefits for infants born to undernourished and anaemic pregnant women. Early initiation in pregnancy and high adherence to multiple micronutrient supplements also provided greater overall benefits. Studies should now aim to elucidate the mechanisms accounting for differences in the effect of antenatal multiple micronutrient supplements on infant health by maternal nutrition status and sex. Funding: None

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods: GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings: The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation: Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation