Mini-grid based electrification in Bangladesh: Technical configuration and business analysis

AbstractThis paper presents a local level study of a village off-grid system in Bangladesh. It applies an integrated methodology that identifies the demand in the off-grid village context using alternative scenarios. The techno-economic analysis of the optimal off-grid system architecture is then presented using HOMER software. Three energy resources are considered, namely solar energy, wind and diesel fuel. The optimal configuration suggested for the scenarios consists of diesel generators for the basic level of demand and PV-diesel hybrid for higher demand and reliable supply scenarios. The cost of electricity per kWh remains high for the basic level of supply and decreases as the system size increases. However, the capital and asset replacement costs increased considerably for bigger systems. The business case is then analysed for each scenario and it was found that it is practically impossible to reach grid price parity even with full capital cost subsidy, indicating significant amount of operating cost subsidy requirement that makes the larger systems financially unsustainable. Moreover, the small mini-grid system for the basic level of supply emerges as a cheaper option than providing the consumers with solar home systems. But the monthly electricity bill will become unaffordable for most consumers when demand restrictions are removed. Accordingly, the paper suggests a mini-grid based electricity supply to provide the basic level of provision alongside productive energy use during off-peak hours as the starting point. If the business develops and the demand improves, the system can be expanded subsequently using appropriate technology combinations

Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.Energy Production and Transportation,Energy Demand,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Economic Theory&Research

Review of alternative methodologies for analysing off-grid electricity supply

Off-grid electrification is gaining importance in the developing countries where the access to electricity is often limited. The purpose of this paper is to review alternative methodologies that are used for off-grid electrification projects to identify the features of each methodological approach and to present their strengths and weaknesses. The paper reviews a large volume of relevant literature covering techno-economic feasibility studies, analytical works highlighting methodological applications and practice-oriented literature. The review identifies five methodological options, namely the worksheet-based tools, optimisation tools, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tools, system-based participatory tools and hybrid approaches. The paper recommends a hybrid approach that combines two or more options to take advantage of strengths and weaknesses of different options