Machine Learning based Cryptocurrency Price Prediction using historical data and Social Media Sentiment

The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of social media sentiments on predicting the Bitcoin price using machine learning models, with a focus on integrating on-chain data and employing a Multi Modal Fusion Model. For conducting the experiments, the crypto market data, on-chain data, and corresponding social media data (Twitter) has been collected from 2014 to 2022 containing over 2000 samples. We trained various models over historical data including K-Nearest Neighbors, Logistic Regression, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Extreme Gradient Boosting and a Multi Modal Fusion. Next, we added Twitter sentiment data to the models, using the Twitter-roBERTa and VADAR models to analyse the sentiments expressed in social media about Bitcoin. We then compared the performance of these models with and without the Twitter sentiment data and found that the inclusion of sentiment feature resulted in consistently better performance, with Twitter-RoBERTa-based sentiment giving an average F1 scores of 0.79. The best performing model was an optimised Multi Modal Fusion classifier using Twitter-RoBERTa based sentiment, producing an F1 score of 0.85. This study represents a significant contribution to the field of financial forecasting by demonstrating the potential of social media sentiment analysis, on-chain data integration, and the application of a Multi Modal Fusion model to improve the accuracy and robustness of machine learning models for predicting market trends, providing a valuable tool for investors, brokers, and traders seeking to make informed decisions

Hopping Conduction in Uniaxially Stressed Si:B near the Insulator-Metal Transition

Using uniaxial stress to tune the critical density near that of the sample, we have studied in detail the low-temperature conductivity of p-type Si:B in the insulating phase very near the metal-insulator transition. For all values of temperature and stress, the conductivity collapses onto a single universal scaling curve. For large values of the argument, the scaling function is well fit by the exponentially activated form associated with variable range hopping when electron-electron interactions cause a soft Coulomb gap in the density of states at the Fermi energy. The temperature dependence of the prefactor, corresponding to the T-dependence of the critical curve, has been determined reliably for this system, and is proportional to the square-root of T. We show explicitly that nevlecting the prefactor leads to substantial errors in the determination of the scaling parameters and the critical exponents derived from them. The conductivity is not consistent with Mott variable-range hopping in the critical region nor does it obey this form for any range of the parameters. Instead, for smaller argument of the scaling function, the conductivity of Si:B is well fit by an exponential form with exponent 0.31 related to the critical exponents of the system at the metal- insulator transition.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Narasimham Committee Report - Some Further Ramifications and Suggestions

This paper while agreeing with the general thrust of the Narasimham Committee Report. Calls attention to some logical corollaries of the Report and analyses some possible fallout from implementing the Report. We agree with the view that control of banking system should be under an autonomous body supervised by the RBI. However at the level of individual banks, closer scrutiny of lending procedures may be called for than is envisaged in the Report. In a freely functioning capital market the potential of government bonds is enormous, but this necessitates restructuring of the government bond market. The government bonds may then also be used as suitable hedging mechanisms by introducing options and futures trading. We recommend freeing up the operation of pension and provident fund to enable at least partial investment of such funds in risky securities. In the corporate sector, we believe that the current 2:1 debt equity norm is too high and not sustainable in the long term. We envisage that high debt levels and higher interest rates, combined with higher business risk may result in greater incidence of corporate sickness. This may call for various schemes for retrenched workers and amendment to land laws for easy exit of companies. On account of interdependencies across different policies, any sequencing of their implementation may be highly problematic. We therefore suggest a near simultaneity in the implementation of various reforms in order to build up a momentum which would be irreversible if people are to have confidence that the reforms will endure, and if we are to retain our credibility with international financial institutions.

Late Quaternary stratigraphic development in the lower Luni, Mahi and Sabarmati river basins, Western India

This study reviews the Quaternary alluvial stratigraphy in three semi-arid river basins of western India i.e., lower Luni (Rajasthan), and Mahi and Sabarmati (Gujarat alluvial plains). On the basis of OSL chronologies, it is shown that the existing intra-valley lithostratigraphic correlations require a revision. The sand, gravel and mud facies are present during various times in the three basins, however, the fluvial response to climate change, and the resulting facies associations, was different in the Thar desert as compared to that at the desert margin; this makes purely lithostratigraphic correlations unviable. It is further shown that the rivers in the Thar desert were more sensitive to climate change and had small response times and geomorphic thresholds as compared to the desert-margin rivers. This is illustrated during the early OIS 1, when the Luni river in the Thar desert was dynamic and showed frequent variations in fluvial styles such as gravel bedload braided streams, sand-bed ephemeral streams and meandering streams, all followed by incision during the early Holocene. The coeval deposits in Sabarmati, however, only show a meandering, floodplain-dominated river. Late Quaternary alluvial deposits in these basins unconformably overlie some older deposits that lack any absolute chronology. Based on the facies types and their associations, and the composition and architecture of the multistoried gravel sheets in the studied sections, it is suggested that older deposits are of pre-Quaternary age. This hypothesis implies the presence of a large hiatus incorporating much of the Quaternary period in the exposed sections

Conductivity of Metallic Si:B near the Metal-Insulator Transition: Comparison between Unstressed and Uniaxially Stressed Samples

The low-temperature dc conductivities of barely metallic samples of p-type Si:B are compared for a series of samples with different dopant concentrations, n, in the absence of stress (cubic symmetry), and for a single sample driven from the metallic into the insulating phase by uniaxial compression, S. For all values of temperature and stress, the conductivity of the stressed sample collapses onto a single universal scaling curve. The scaling fit indicates that the conductivity of si:B is proportional to the square-root of T in the critical range. Our data yield a critical conductivity exponent of 1.6, considerably larger than the value reported in earlier experiments where the transition was crossed by varying the dopant concentration. The larger exponent is based on data in a narrow range of stress near the critical value within which scaling holds. We show explicitly that the temperature dependences of the conductivity of stressed and unstressed Si:B are different, suggesting that a direct comparison of the critical behavior and critical exponents for stress- tuned and concentration-tuned transitions may not be warranted