Another Look at Devaluation and the Trade Balance in China

This paper estimates the effect of Chinese Yuan devaluation on the trade balance of China.  For that a regression equation is developed in which domestic income, foreign income, domestic money supply, foreign money supply and real effective exchange rate are used as explanatory variable with trade balance as the dependent variable. In order to test the J-curve phenomenon the lagged values of exchange rata are also included.  Quarterly time series data from 1999 to 2016 are used.  Before estimating the model the time series properties of the data are diagnosed and an error correction model is developed and estimated.  The estimated results show that the contemporaneous effect of devaluation is positive, but the total effect is insignificant.  A J-curve pattern of adjustment of the trade balance is also detected

Exchange Rate Adjustment And Output In SouthEast Asia

This paper studies the effect of currencydevaluation on aggregate output level in South- East Asian countries usingpanel data from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines for a periodfrom 1980 to 2010. An empirical modelthat includes monetary, fiscal and exchange rate variables is developed. Two versions of the model, one with realexchange rate and another with nominal exchange rate and foreign-to-domesticprice ratio are estimated. An errorcorrection model is developed and the time series properties of the panel dataare diagnosed before estimating the model.The estimated results suggest that currency devaluations are contractionaryin the short run and the intermediate run and this contractionary effect comesfrom the change in nominal exchange rate and not from the change in foreign-to-domesticprice ratio

Impact of COVID-19 on heart failure hospitalization and outcome in India – A cardiological society of India study (CSI–HF in COVID 19 times study – “The COVID C–HF study”)

Objectives: The presentation and outcomes of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) during COVID times (June 2020 to Dec 2020) were compared with the historical control during the same period in 2019. Methods: Data of 4806 consecutive patients of acute HF admitted in 22 centres in the country were collected during this period. The admission patterns, aetiology, outcomes, prescription of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) and interventions were analysed in this retrospective study. Results: Admissions for acute heart failure during the pandemic period in 2020 decreased by 20% compared to the corresponding six-month period in 2019, with numbers dropping from 2675 to 2131. However, no difference in the epidemiology was seen. The mean age of presentation in 2019 was 61.75 (±13.7) years, and 59.97 (±14.6) years in 2020. There was a significant decrease in the mean age of presentation (p = 0.001). Also. the proportion of male patients decreased significantly from 68.67% to 65.84% (p = 0.037). The in-hospital mortality for acute heart failure did not differ significantly between 2019 and 2020 (4.19% and 4.,97%) respectively (p = 0.19). The proportion of patients with HFrEF did not change in 2020 compared to 2019 (76.82% vs 75.74%, respectively). The average duration of hospital stay was 6.5 days. Conclusion: The outcomes of ADHF patients admitted during the Covid pandemic did not differ significantly. The length of hospital stay remained the same. The study highlighted the sub-optimal use of GDMT, though slightly improving over the last few years