Back to the future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of antarctic climate

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this.The Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21) Scientific Research Programme of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research are thanked for supporting the international scientific workshop at which the writing of this manuscript was initiated. This is a contribution to the PAGES 2k Network (through the CLIVASH 2k project). NJA acknowledges support by the Australian Research Council through a Future Fellowship (FT160100029) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). SJP was supported under the Australian Research Council’s Special Research Initiative for the Antarctic Gateway Partnership (Project ID SR140300001). JMJ acknowledges support from the Leverhulme Trust through a Research Fellowship (RF-2018-183). FC acknowledges support from the PNRA national Italian projects PNRA16_00016, “WHISPERS” and project PNRA_00002, “ANTIPODE”. TJB, LS, and ERT were supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) as part of the British Antarctic Survey Polar Science for Planet Earth Programme. TJB additionally acknowledges support for this work as a contribution to the NERC grant NE/N01829X/1. IW thanks FAPESP 2015/50686-1, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) Finance Code 001 and CNPq 300970/2018-8, CNPq INCT Criosfera 704222/200

Volcanic glass from the 1.8 ka Taupō eruption (New Zealand) detected in Antarctic ice at ~ 230 CE.

Chemical anomalies in polar ice core records are frequently linked to volcanism; however, without the presence of (crypto)tephra particles, links to specific eruptions remain speculative. Correlating tephras yields estimates of eruption timing and potential source volcano, offers refinement of ice core chronologies, and provides insights into volcanic impacts. Here, we report on sparse rhyolitic glass shards detected in the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core (West Antarctica), attributed to the 1.8 ka Taupō eruption (New Zealand)-one of the largest and most energetic Holocene eruptions globally. Six shards of a distinctive geochemical composition, identical within analytical uncertainties to proximal Taupō glass, are accompanied by a single shard indistinguishable from glass of the ~25.5 ka Ōruanui supereruption, also from Taupō volcano. This double fingerprint uniquely identifies the source volcano and helps link the shards to the climactic phase of the Taupō eruption. The englacial Taupō-derived glass shards coincide with a particle spike and conductivity anomaly at 278.84 m core depth, along with trachytic glass from a local Antarctic eruption of Mt. Melbourne. The assessed age of the sampled ice is 230 ± 19 CE (95% confidence), confirming that the published radiocarbon wiggle-match date of 232 ± 10 CE (2 SD) for the Taupō eruption is robust

An 83 000-year-old ice core from Roosevelt Island, Ross Sea, Antarctica

In 2013 an ice core was recovered from Roosevelt Island, an ice dome between two submarine troughs carved by paleo-ice-streams in the Ross Sea, Antarctica. The ice core is part of the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) project and provides new information about the past configuration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and its retreat during the last deglaciation. In this work we present the RICE17 chronology, which establishes the depth–age relationship for the top 754 m of the 763 m core. RICE17 is a composite chronology combining annual layer interpretations for 0–343 m (Winstrup et al., 2019) with new estimates for gas and ice ages based on synchronization of CH4 and δ18Oatm records to corresponding records from the WAIS Divide ice core and by modeling of the gas age–ice age difference. Novel aspects of this work include the following: (1) an automated algorithm for multiproxy stratigraphic synchronization of high-resolution gas records; (2) synchronization using centennial-scale variations in methane for pre-anthropogenic time periods (60–720 m, 1971 CE to 30 ka), a strategy applicable for future ice cores; and (3) the observation of a continuous climate record back to ∼65 ka providing evidence that the Roosevelt Island Ice Dome was a constant feature throughout the last glacial period

Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ashley, K. E., McKay, R., Etourneau, J., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., Condron, A., Albot, A., Crosta, X., Riesselman, C., Seki, O., Mass, G., Golledge, N. R., Gasson, E., Lowry, D. P., Barrand, N. E., Johnson, K., Bertler, N., Escutia, C., Dunbar, R., & Bendle, J. A. Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat. Climate of the Past, 17(1), (2021): 1-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1-2021.Over recent decades Antarctic sea-ice extent has increased, alongside widespread ice shelf thinning and freshening of waters along the Antarctic margin. In contrast, Earth system models generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Circulation of water masses beneath large-cavity ice shelves is not included in current Earth System models and may be a driver of this phenomena. We examine a Holocene sediment core off East Antarctica that records the Neoglacial transition, the last major baseline shift of Antarctic sea ice, and part of a late-Holocene global cooling trend. We provide a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport, and sea-ice variability. Our record, supported by high-resolution ocean modelling, shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene (∼ 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth that slowed basal ice shelf melting. Incorporating this feedback mechanism into global climate models will be important for future projections of Antarctic changes.This research has been supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (CENTA PhD; NE/L002493/1 and Standard Grant Ne/I00646X/1), Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS/FF2/60 no. L-11523), NZ Marsden Fund (grant nos. 18-VUW-089 and 15-VUW-131), NSF (grant nos. PLR-1443347 and ACI-1548562), the U.S. Dept. of Energy (grant no. DE-SC0016105), ERC (StG ICEPROXY, 203441; ANR CLIMICE, FP7 Past4Future, 243908), L'Oréal-UNESCO New Zealand For Women in Science Fellowship, University of Otago Research Grant, the IODP U.S. Science Support Program, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant no. CTM2017-89711-C2-1-P), and the European Union (FEDER)

Ice core chemistry database: an Antarctic compilation of sodium and sulfate records spanning the past 2000 years

Changes in sea ice conditions and atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean play an important role in modulating Antarctic climate. However, observations of both sea ice and wind conditions are limited in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, both temporally and spatially, prior to the satellite era (1970 onwards). Ice core chemistry data can be used to reconstruct changes over annual, decadal, and millennial timescales. To facilitate sea ice and wind reconstructions, the CLIVASH2k (CLimate Variability in Antarctica and the Southern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years) working group has compiled a database of two species, sodium [Na+] and sulfate [SO2− 4 ], commonly measured ionic species. The database (https://doi.org/10.5285/9E0ED16E-F2AB4372-8DF3-FDE7E388C9A7; Thomas et al., 2022) comprises records from 105 Antarctic ice cores, containing records with a maximum age duration of 2000 years. An initial filter has been applied, based on evaluation against sea ice concentration, geopotential height (500 hPa), and surface wind fields to identify sites suitable for reconstructing past sea ice conditions, wind strength, or atmospheric circulation

Snow Chemistry Across Antarctica

An updated compilation of published and new data of major-ion (Ca, Cl, K, Mg, Na, NO3, SO4) and methylsulfonate (MS) concentrations in snow from 520 Antarctic sites is provided by the national ITASE (International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition) programmes of Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, the United Kingdom, the United States and the national Antarctic programme of Finland. The comparison shows that snow chemistry concentrations vary by up to four orders of magnitude across Antarctica and exhibit distinct geographical patterns. The Antarctic-wide comparison of glaciochemical records provides a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the fundamental factors that ultimately control the chemistry of snow or ice samples. This paper aims to initiate data compilation and administration in order to provide a framework for facilitation of Antarctic-wide snow chemistry discussions across all ITASE nations and other contributing groups. The data are made available through the ITASE web page (http:// www2.umaine.edu/itase/content/syngroups/snowchem.html) and will be updated with new data as they are provided. In addition, recommendations for future research efforts are summarized

Ice core chemistry database: an Antarctic compilation of sodium and sulfate records spanning the past 2000 years

Changes in sea ice conditions and atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean play an important role in modulating Antarctic climate. However, observations of both sea ice and wind conditions are limited in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, both temporally and spatially, prior to the satellite era (1970 onwards). Ice core chemistry data can be used to reconstruct changes over annual, decadal, and millennial timescales. To facilitate sea ice and wind reconstructions, the CLIVASH2k (CLimate Variability in Antarctica and the Southern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years) working group has compiled a database of two species, sodium [Na+] and sulfate [SO2− 4 ], commonly measured ionic species. The database (https://doi.org/10.5285/9E0ED16E-F2AB4372-8DF3-FDE7E388C9A7; Thomas et al., 2022) comprises records from 105 Antarctic ice cores, containing records with a maximum age duration of 2000 years. An initial filter has been applied, based on evaluation against sea ice concentration, geopotential height (500 hPa), and surface wind fields to identify sites suitable for reconstructing past sea ice conditions, wind strength, or atmospheric circulation