By the numbers: data and measurement in community economic development

Highlights of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the Greenlining Institute’s 13th Annual Economic Development Summit in Los Angeles, April 20, 2006.Community development

The response of corporate investments in the US to oil price changes: the role of asymmetries

This paper investigates the influence of oil price changes on corporate investment in the US using a large sample of 15,411 companies from 1984 to 2017. It adds to the literature by showing an asymmetric response of capital investments to oil price changes for non-oil companies. Particularly, positive oil price changes have a larger adverse impact on investments than the positive impact created by negative oil price changes. These results are important in assessing the impact of energy price fluctuations on the long-term investment decisions of US companies

This is not your father's recession ... or is it?

The current declines in employment and income are consistent with what happened in previous recessions going back to 1969. Unique this time are the major drop in home prices and the proactive response by policymakers.Recessions

Will a Bursting Bubble Trouble Bernanke? The Evidence for a Housing Bubble

This report discusses the likelihood that incoming Federal Reserve Chair Benjamin Bernanke will be forced to deal with the effects of a collapsing housing bubble.

Early education's big dividends: the better public investment

Public investments in projects like new stadiums never achieve returns equal to those from early childhood education—which several small studies have assessed at 7 percent to 20 percent. Now Minnesota is testing whether scaling up can produce the same results.Early childhood education ; Early childhood education - Minnesota

Jobless recoveries: causes and consequences

Unemployment ; Employment

An Alternative Identification of the Economic Shocks in SVAR Models

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach allowing us to identify the structural shocks in the SVAR model. This approach ameliorates substantially the decomposition methods of Bernanke (1986) and Bernanke & Mihov (1998) and improves in the same way the identification procedures pioneered by Blanchard & Quah (1989) and Blanchard & Perotti (2002).SVAR, Economic Shocks, Nonlinearity, Viability, Trajectories, Differential Inclusion.

Getting up to Speed on the Financial Crisis: A One-Weekend-Reader's Guide

All economists should be conversant with “what happened?” during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. We select and summarize 16 documents, including academic papers and reports from regulatory and international agencies. This reading list covers the key facts and mechanisms in the build-up of risk, the panics in short-term-debt markets, the policy reactions, and the real effects of the financial crisis.

Economic hangover: recovery is likely to be prolonged, painful

It's time to pay the piper for our freewheeling spending of the past decade. Although some scenarios for the future economy provide reason to hope, the recovery is likely to be slow and volatile.Economic conditions ; Recessions

The Great Moderation and the ‘Bernanke Conjecture’

Was the Great Moderation in the United States due to good policy or good luck? Taking, as data generation process, a New Keynesian sticky-price model in which the only source of change is the move from a passive to an active monetary rule, we show how standard econometric methods, both reducedform and structural, often misinterpret good policy for good luck. Specifically, we show how such a move is perfectly compatible with: (a) little change in the estimated impulse-response functions to a monetary policy shock, as in Stock and Watson (2002), Primiceri (2005), Canova and Gambetti (2005), and Gambetti, Pappa, and Canova (2006). (b) Significant changes in the estimated volatilities of both reduced-form and structural shocks–as in (e.g.) Ahmed, Levin, and Wilson (2004) and Stock and Watson (2002)–even in the absence, by construction, of any change in the volatilities of structural innovations. (c) Little change in the integrated normalised spectra of inflation and GDP growth at the business-cycle frequencies, as in Ahmed, Levin, and Wilson (2004). In line with Bernanke’s (2004) conjecture, the explanation is that conventional econometric methods are intrinsically incapable of capturing the role played by the systematic component of monetary policy in (de)stabilising in- flation expectations, and are therefore inevitably bound to confuse shifts in expected inflation with true structural innovations, thus giving the illusion of good luck even when good policy is, by construction, the authentic explanationGreat Inflation, indeterminacy, structural break tests, frequency domain, VARs.